Detecting the traders' strategies in Minority-Majority games and real stock-prices

Price dynamics is analyzed in terms of a model which includes the possibility of effective forces due to trend followers or trend adverse strategies. The method is tested on the data of a minority-majority model and indeed it is capable of reconstructing the prevailing traders' strategies in a given time interval. Then we also analyze real (NYSE) stock-prices dynamics and it is possible to derive an indication for the the ``sentiment'' of the market for time intervals of at least one day.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure

Encefalopatias espongiformes transmissíveis e a relação entre animais e seres humanos : o que se sabe até agora.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE ou encefalopatias espongiformes transmissíveis) são doenças que atacam animais e seres humanos em várias formas. Este grupo de doenças está relacionado com a degeneração do sistema neurológico devido à acumulação de uma proteína conhecida como prion (prião), que é a forma abreviada para o termo inglês proteinaceous infections particles. Várias tentativas de controle daquelas patologias têm sido votadas ao fracasso devido ao longo período de incubação da doença. Nos animais, as formas mais conhecidas daquele grupo de doenças são: a bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE ou encefalopatia espongiforme de bovinos) que afecta os bovinos de uma forma geral e que é conhecida como a doença das vacas loucas; a scrapie que afecta os ovinos e caprinos; a chronic wasting disease (CWD) que ocorre em cervos e alces selvagens; a transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME) característica de martas e outros animais utilizados para produção de peles; a feline spongiform encephalopathy (FSE) que aparece no gato doméstico. No ser humano, as formas encontradas são a Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), a new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (nvCJD), que pode estar ligada à BSE, a Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker syndrome (GSS), a fatal familial insomnia (FFI) e a doença de kurú, uma forma de TSE encontrada em tribos indígenas da Papua Nova Guiné que praticam canibalismo. Em Inglaterra, a BSE provocou a morte de várias vacas leiteiras e possui uma provável, mas não demonstrada, ligação com a doença nvCJD em seres humanos. Existe uma elevada possibilidade de que outras doenças com grande importância para o homem como a doença de Alzheimer, a doença de Parkinson e a esclerose amiotrópica lateral (ALS) tenham origem semelhante aos da CJD e BSE, ou seja, todas causadas pela acumulação de uma determinada proteína, numa forma não reconhecida pelo organismo humano, que acaba por afectar o tecido nervoso, principalmente o cérebro.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes toward Citizenship

We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citi zenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We nd that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors - conflict,, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs- that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade

Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes toward Citizenship

We analyze the relationship between natives’ attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citizenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual’s ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors—conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs—that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade

A nutrition mathematical model to account for dietary supply and requirements of energy and nutrients for domesticated small ruminants: the development and evaluation of the Small Ruminant Nutrition System

A mechanistic model that predicts nutrient requirements and biological values of feeds for sheep (Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System; CNCPS-S) was expanded to include goats and the name was changed to the Small Ruminant Nutrition System (SRNS). The SRNS uses animal and environmental factors to predict metabolizable energy (ME) and protein, and Ca and P requirements. Requirements for goats in the SRNS are predicted based on the equations developed for CNCPS-S, modified to account for specific requirements of goats, including maintenance, lactation, and pregnancy requirements, and body reserves. Feed biological values are predicted based on carbohydrate and protein fractions and their ruminal fermentation rates, forage, concentrate and liquid passage rates, and microbial growth. The evaluation of the SRNS for sheep using published papers (19 treatment means) indicated no mean bias (MB; 1.1 g/100 g) and low root mean square prediction error (RMSPE; 3.6 g/100g) when predicting dietary organic matter digestibility for diets not deficient in ruminal nitrogen. The SRNS accurately predicted gains and losses of shrunk body weight (SBW) of adult sheep (15 treatment means; MB = 5.8 g/d and RMSPE = 30 g/d) when diets were not deficient in ruminal nitrogen. The SRNS for sheep had MB varying from -34 to 1 g/d and RSME varying from 37 to 56 g/d when predicting average daily gain (ADG) of growing lambs (42 treatment means). The evaluation of the SRNS for goats based on literature data showed accurate predictions for ADG of kids (31 treatment means; RMSEP = 32.5 g/d; r2= 0.85; concordance correlation coefficient, CCC, = 0.91), daily ME intake (21 treatment means; RMSEP = 0.24 Mcal/d g/d; r2 = 0.99; CCC = 0.99), and energy balance (21 treatment means; RMSEP = 0.20 Mcal/d g/d; r2 = 0.87; CCC = 0.90) of goats. In conclusion, the SRNS for sheep can accurately predict dietary organic matter digestibility, ADG of growing lambs and changes in SBW of mature sheep. The SRNS for goats is suitable for predicting ME intake and the energy balance of lactating and non-lactating adult goats and the ADG of kids of dairy, meat, and indigenous breeds. The SRNS model is available at http://nutritionmodels.tamu.edu

Using System Dynamics Modelling Approach to Develop Management Tools for Animal Production with Emphasis on Small Ruminants

Small ruminants are important assets in several regions of the world. They account for more than half of the domesticated ruminants. Despite the growth in goat production in the world (more than 2% per year), research related to goat production is less than desired. One underused but potentially valuable approach for research on small ruminants is simulation modelling. Models of the components of small ruminant systems can enhance the financial returns and reduce negative environmental impacts. These models can be used to assess many dimensions of small ruminant production, from rumen dynamics to economic policies designed to support small ruminant production. Understanding the nutrition, production, and economic policy feedback signals and planning ahead is crucial to build a robust and integrated production activity that can be managed under different production scenarios. System Dynamics (SD) is a computer-aided modelling methodology that can be used to perform policy analysis and decision support system (DSS) applied to dynamic problems arising in complex social, managerial, economic, or ecological dynamic systems characterized by interdependence, mutual interaction, information feedback, and circular causality. SD can be used as a modelling tool to aggregate knowledge to solve different types of problems that have a limited scope to a specific location or have broad trends of applications across locations and areas of science. Important issues of broad application include the bearings of animal production in the climate change and the impacts of climate change in animal production, alternative production scenarios of animal and crop integration, associations between animal production and business (economics, marketing). The trend of increasing small ruminants in tropical and subtropical regions and an increasing pressure on tropical and subtropical livestock systems to produce food, to feed livestock, and to produce energy crops warrants the development of DSS to address issues such as what is the “real” benefits of livestock, the negative impacts livestock can have on greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment, and the effects of climate change on livestock systems