Extraction of decision rules via imprecise probabilities

"This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of General Systems on 2017, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03081079.2017.1312359"Data analysis techniques can be applied to discover important relations among features. This is the main objective of the Information Root Node Variation (IRNV) technique, a new method to extract knowledge from data via decision trees. The decision trees used by the original method were built using classic split criteria. The performance of new split criteria based on imprecise probabilities and uncertainty measures, called credal split criteria, differs significantly from the performance obtained using the classic criteria. This paper extends the IRNV method using two credal split criteria: one based on a mathematical parametric model, and other one based on a non-parametric model. The performance of the method is analyzed using a case study of traffic accident data to identify patterns related to the severity of an accident. We found that a larger number of rules is generated, significantly supplementing the information obtained using the classic split criteria.This work has been supported by the Spanish "Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad" [Project number TEC2015-69496-R] and FEDER funds.Abellán, J.; López-Maldonado, G.; Garach, L.; Castellano, JG. (2017). Extraction of decision rules via imprecise probabilities. International Journal of General Systems. 46(4):313-331. https://doi.org/10.1080/03081079.2017.1312359S313331464Abellan, J., & Bosse, E. (2018). Drawbacks of Uncertainty Measures Based on the Pignistic Transformation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, 48(3), 382-388. doi:10.1109/tsmc.2016.2597267Abellán, J., & Klir, G. J. (2005). Additivity of uncertainty measures on credal sets. International Journal of General Systems, 34(6), 691-713. doi:10.1080/03081070500396915Abellán, J., & Masegosa, A. R. (2010). An ensemble method using credal decision trees. European Journal of Operational Research, 205(1), 218-226. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2009.12.003(2003). International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 18(12). doi:10.1002/int.v18:12Abellán, J., Klir, G. J., & Moral, S. (2006). Disaggregated total uncertainty measure for credal sets. International Journal of General Systems, 35(1), 29-44. doi:10.1080/03081070500473490Abellán, J., Baker, R. M., & Coolen, F. P. A. (2011). Maximising entropy on the nonparametric predictive inference model for multinomial data. European Journal of Operational Research, 212(1), 112-122. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2011.01.020Abellán, J., López, G., & de Oña, J. (2013). Analysis of traffic accident severity using Decision Rules via Decision Trees. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(15), 6047-6054. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.05.027Abellán, J., Baker, R. M., Coolen, F. P. A., Crossman, R. J., & Masegosa, A. R. (2014). Classification with decision trees from a nonparametric predictive inference perspective. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 71, 789-802. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2013.02.009Alkhalid, A., Amin, T., Chikalov, I., Hussain, S., Moshkov, M., & Zielosko, B. (2013). Optimization and analysis of decision trees and rules: dynamic programming approach. International Journal of General Systems, 42(6), 614-634. doi:10.1080/03081079.2013.798902Chang, L.-Y., & Chien, J.-T. (2013). Analysis of driver injury severity in truck-involved accidents using a non-parametric classification tree model. Safety Science, 51(1), 17-22. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2012.06.017Chang, L.-Y., & Wang, H.-W. (2006). Analysis of traffic injury severity: An application of non-parametric classification tree techniques. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 38(5), 1019-1027. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2006.04.009DE CAMPOS, L. M., HUETE, J. F., & MORAL, S. (1994). PROBABILITY INTERVALS: A TOOL FOR UNCERTAIN REASONING. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 02(02), 167-196. doi:10.1142/s0218488594000146DGT. 2011b.Spanish Road Safety Strategy 2011–2020, 222 p. Madrid: Traffic General Directorate.Dolques, X., Le Ber, F., Huchard, M., & Grac, C. (2016). Performance-friendly rule extraction in large water data-sets with AOC posets and relational concept analysis. International Journal of General Systems, 45(2), 187-210. doi:10.1080/03081079.2015.1072927Gray, R. C., Quddus, M. A., & Evans, A. (2008). Injury severity analysis of accidents involving young male drivers in Great Britain. Journal of Safety Research, 39(5), 483-495. doi:10.1016/j.jsr.2008.07.003Guo, J., & Chankong, V. (2002). Rough set-based approach to rule generation and rule induction. International Journal of General Systems, 31(6), 601-617. doi:10.1080/0308107021000034353Huang, H., Chin, H. C., & Haque, M. M. (2008). Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 40(1), 45-54. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2007.04.002Kashani, A. T., & Mohaymany, A. S. (2011). Analysis of the traffic injury severity on two-lane, two-way rural roads based on classification tree models. Safety Science, 49(10), 1314-1320. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2011.04.019Li, X., & Yu, L. (2016). Decision making under various types of uncertainty. International Journal of General Systems, 45(3), 251-252. doi:10.1080/03081079.2015.1086574Mantas, C. J., & Abellán, J. (2014). Analysis and extension of decision trees based on imprecise probabilities: Application on noisy data. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(5), 2514-2525. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.09.050Mayhew, D. R., Simpson, H. M., & Pak, A. (2003). Changes in collision rates among novice drivers during the first months of driving. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 35(5), 683-691. doi:10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00047-7McCartt, A. T., Mayhew, D. R., Braitman, K. A., Ferguson, S. A., & Simpson, H. M. (2009). Effects of Age and Experience on Young Driver Crashes: Review of Recent Literature. Traffic Injury Prevention, 10(3), 209-219. doi:10.1080/15389580802677807Montella, A., Aria, M., D’Ambrosio, A., & Mauriello, F. (2011). Data-Mining Techniques for Exploratory Analysis of Pedestrian Crashes. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2237(1), 107-116. doi:10.3141/2237-12Montella, A., Aria, M., D’Ambrosio, A., & Mauriello, F. (2012). Analysis of powered two-wheeler crashes in Italy by classification trees and rules discovery. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 49, 58-72. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2011.04.025De Oña, J., López, G., & Abellán, J. (2013). Extracting decision rules from police accident reports through decision trees. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 1151-1160. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.09.006De Oña, J., López, G., Mujalli, R., & Calvo, F. J. (2013). Analysis of traffic accidents on rural highways using Latent Class Clustering and Bayesian Networks. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 51, 1-10. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.10.016Pande, A., & Abdel-Aty, M. (2009). Market basket analysis of crash data from large jurisdictions and its potential as a decision support tool. Safety Science, 47(1), 145-154. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2007.12.001Peek-Asa, C., Britton, C., Young, T., Pawlovich, M., & Falb, S. (2010). Teenage driver crash incidence and factors influencing crash injury by rurality. Journal of Safety Research, 41(6), 487-492. doi:10.1016/j.jsr.2010.10.002Sikora, M., & Wróbel, Ł. (2013). Data-driven adaptive selection of rule quality measures for improving rule induction and filtration algorithms. International Journal of General Systems, 42(6), 594-613. doi:10.1080/03081079.2013.798901Walley, P. (1996). Inferences from Multinomial Data: Learning About a Bag of Marbles. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 58(1), 3-34. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02065.xWang, Z., & Klir, G. J. (1992). Fuzzy Measure Theory. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-5303-5Webb, G. I. (2007). Discovering Significant Patterns. Machine Learning, 68(1), 1-33. doi:10.1007/s10994-007-5006-xWitten, I. H., & Frank, E. (2002). Data mining. ACM SIGMOD Record, 31(1), 76-77. doi:10.1145/507338.50735

RENTABILIDAD E INCIDENCIA DE LA PRODUCCIÓN DE TARTAGO (Rícínus comunnís L.) EN LOS INGRESOS DE PEQUEÑOS PRODUCTORES DEL DISTRITO DE CHORÉ,SAN PEDRO

La presente investigación consiste en la caracterización del cultivo de tártago y un análisis económico de pequeñas fincas ubicadas en el distrito de Choré, departamento de San Pedro. El propósito del estudio fue el de determinar el impacto de la producción de tártago en los ingresos de las familias rurales y determinar la rentabilidad del mismo. El levantamiento de datos de fuente primaria fue realizado mediante una encuesta a productores jefes o jefas de hogar, siendo la unidad de análisis las fincas productoras de tártago. La población fue de pequeños productores con no más de 10 ha y que son cultivadores de tártago del distrito de Choré. El tamaño muestral fue de (n=60). Las unidades de datos se seleccionaron por medio de un muestreo aleatorio simple utilizando como marco muestral una lista de productores asistidos por empresas tercerizadas por elMinisterio de Agricultura y Ganadería. El estudio incluyó el análisis de variables como superficie cultivada de tártago, producción de tártago, caracterización de ingresos y egresos de la finca, rentabilidad del tartago y porcentaje de incidencia del mismo en los ingresos de las fincas. El estudio encontró que 25% de las fincas del distrito cultivan tártago, con un promedio de 0,5 hectáreas y rendimiento estimado de 2.000 kq.há'. Los productores comercializan semilla de tártago en tres oportunidades, vendiendo a acopiadores de la zona que son comerciantes que acercan el producto a los centros de acopio de empresas que exportan la totalidad de las semillas de tártago. Finalmente, el estudio encontró que el tártago es rentable y que en promedio representa el 17% del total de ingresos de las fincas estudiadas; además que los ingresos por venta del mismo ocurren en momentos en que los demás rubros ya fueron totalmente comercializados, constituyéndose el tártago en una especie de seguro para meses donde no existen otros productos que comercializar

Return to Sport and Athletic Function in an Active Population After Primary Arthroscopic Labral Reconstruction of the Hip

Background: Labral reconstruction has been advocated as an alternative to debridement for the treatment of irreparable labral tears, showing favorable short-term results. However, literature is scarce regarding outcomes and return to sport in the nonelite athletic population. Purpose: To report minimum 1-year clinical outcomes and the rate of return to sport in athletic patients who underwent primary hip arthroscopy with labral reconstruction in the setting of femoroacetabular impingement syndrome and irreparable labral tears. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Data were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed for patients who underwent an arthroscopic labral reconstruction between August 2012 and December 2017. Patients were included if they identified as an athlete (high school, college, recreational, or amateur); had follow-up on the following patient-reported outcomes (PROs): modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS), Nonarthritic Hip Score (NAHS), Hip Outcome Score–Sport Specific Subscale (HOS-SSS), and visual analog scale (VAS); and completed a return-to-sport survey at 1 year postoperatively. Patients were excluded if they underwent any previous ipsilateral hip surgery, had dysplasia, or had prior hip conditions. The proportions of patients who achieved the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and patient acceptable symptomatic state (PASS) for mHHS and HOS-SSS were calculated. Statistical significance was set at P =.05. Results: There were 32 (14 females) athletes who underwent primary arthroscopic labral reconstruction during the study period. The mean age and body mass index of the group were 40.3 years (range, 15.5-58.7 years) and 27.9 kg/m2 (range, 19.6-40.1 kg/m2), respectively. The mean follow-up was 26.4 months (range, 12-64.2 months). All patients demonstrated significant improvement in mHHS, NAHS, HOS-SSS, and VAS (P \u3c.001) at latest follow-up. Additionally, 84.4% achieved MCID and 81.3% achieved PASS for mHHS, and 87.5% achieved MCID and 75% achieved PASS for HOS-SSS. VAS pain scores decreased from 4.4 to 1.8, and the satisfaction with surgery was 7.9 out of 10. The rate of return to sport was 78%. Conclusion: At minimum 1-year follow-up, primary arthroscopic labral reconstruction, in the setting of femoroacetabular impingement syndrome and irreparable labral tears, was associated with significant improvement in PROs in athletic populations. Return to sport within 1 year of surgery was 78%

Component and System Sensitivity Considerations for Design of a Lunar ISRU Oxygen Production Plant

Component and system sensitivities of some design parameters of ISRU system components are analyzed. The differences between terrestrial and lunar excavation are discussed, and a qualitative comparison of large and small excavators is started. The effect of excavator size on the size of the ISRU plant's regolith hoppers is presented. Optimum operating conditions of both hydrogen and carbothermal reduction reactors are explored using recently developed analytical models. Design parameters such as batch size, conversion fraction, and maximum particle size are considered for a hydrogen reduction reactor while batch size, conversion fraction, number of melt zones, and methane flow rate are considered for a carbothermal reduction reactor. For both reactor types the effect of reactor operation on system energy and regolith delivery requirements is presented

The fecal resistome of dairy cattle is associated with diet during nursing.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global public health concern, and livestock play a significant role in selecting for resistance and maintaining such reservoirs. Here we study the succession of dairy cattle resistome during early life using metagenomic sequencing, as well as the relationship between resistome, gut microbiota, and diet. In our dataset, the gut of dairy calves serves as a reservoir of 329 antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) presumably conferring resistance to 17 classes of antibiotics, and the abundance of ARGs declines gradually during nursing. ARGs appear to co-occur with antibacterial biocide or metal resistance genes. Colostrum is a potential source of ARGs observed in calves at day 2. The dynamic changes in the resistome are likely a result of gut microbiota assembly, which is closely associated with diet transition in dairy calves. Modifications in the resistome may be possible via early-life dietary interventions to reduce overall antimicrobial resistance

The Spanish version of the Internet Gaming Disorder Scale - short form (IGDS9-SF): further examination using item response theory

Internet gaming disorder (IGD) has been recognized by the American Psychiatric Association (APA) as a tentative disorder in the latest (fifth) revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5). However, psychometric evaluation of the nine IGD criteria remains necessary to further enhance its assessment. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the Internet Gaming Disorder Scale-Short Form (IGDS9-SF). The internal structure, internal consistency, temporal stability, and relationships with other variables were assessed. Furthermore, a polytomous item response theory (IRT) approach was used to evaluate the performance of each item and the test as a whole. A sample of 388 online gamers (53.61% women, mean age 25.45 years, standard deviation (SD) = 9.62) was recruited for this study. Similar to previous research, the results supported a one-factor structure for the IGDS9-SF, adequate internal consistency and temporal stability of scores, goodness of fit of the items to the graded response model (GRM), and more precise scores at high trait levels to assess IGD in Spanish populations. These findings corroborate the suitability of the Spanish IGDS9-SF for clinical assessment and research within Spanish-speaking populations

Neutral Iron Emission Lines From The Day-side Of KELT-9b -- The GAPS Programme With HARPS-N At TNG XX

We present the first detection of atomic emission lines from the atmosphere of an exoplanet. We detect neutral iron lines from the day-side of KELT-9b (Teq $\sim$ 4, 000 K). We combined thousands of spectrally resolved lines observed during one night with the HARPS-N spectrograph (R $\sim$ 115, 000), mounted at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo. We introduce a novel statistical approach to extract the planetary parameters from the binary mask cross-correlation analysis. We also adapt the concept of contribution function to the context of high spectral resolution observations, to identify the location in the planetary atmosphere where the detected emission originates. The average planetary line profile intersected by a stellar G2 binary mask was found in emission with a contrast of 84 $\pm$ 14 ppm relative to the planetary plus stellar continuum (40 $\pm$ 5$\%$ relative to the planetary continuum only). This result unambiguously indicates the presence of an atmospheric thermal inversion. Finally, assuming a modelled temperature profile previously published (Lothringer et al. 2018), we show that an iron abundance consistent with a few times the stellar value explains the data well. In this scenario, the iron emission originates at the $10^{-3}$-$10^{-5}$ bar level.Comment: Accepted for publication on ApJL; 19 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

Steel profiles for repairing deteriorated timber beam ends

Se describe un procedimiento para la consolidación de viguetas de forjado de madera con deterioro en las cabezas mediante perfiles de acero conectados a la madera desde la cara superior del forjado. La pieza de refuerzo es un perfil en U de acero S275 conformado en frío con pletinas soldadas insertadas en la madera y conectada mediante tirafondos. Se ensayaron 30 piezas a flexión obteniendo la rigidez y la capacidad de carga. Las probetas se dividieron en tres grupos. El primero compuesto por 10 piezas de madera laminada encolada de abeto con una sección de 180 x 200 mm y una longitud de 4.000 mm; el segundo consistía en 10 piezas de madera aserrada de pino silvestre con la misma sección y longitud y, el tercero, estaba formado por otras 10 piezas de madera del género Pinus con una sección de 130 x 150 mm y 3.000 mm de longitud, procedentes de un edificio de Madrid con 120 años de antigüedad. Cada grupo de 10 piezas se dividió a su vez en dos grupos de 5 piezas. El primer subgrupo estaba formado por las piezas completas de madera y constituía el grupo de referencia. Las piezas del segundo subgrupo tenían una longitud inferior que se salvaba con una extensión del refuerzo metálico. Los resultados indican que el sistema de refuerzo metálico permite resolver los problemas de falta de apoyo de la vigueta por deterioro de la madera que afecte en una longitud limitada (aproximadamente entre el 10 y el 20% de la longitud)