118 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate
The impact of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) on the regional climate in South America is assessed using 30-year simulations with a global atmosphere-only configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. We compare two simulations of high and low emissions of biomass burning aerosol based on realistic interannual variability. The aerosol scheme in the model has hygroscopic growth and optical properties for BBA informed by recent observations, including those from the recent South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) intensive aircraft observations made during September 2012. We find that the difference in the September (peak biomass emissions month) BBA optical depth between a simulation with high emissions and a simulation with low emissions corresponds well to the difference in the BBA emissions between the two simulations, with a 71.6 % reduction from high to low emissions for both the BBA emissions and the BB AOD in the region with maximum emissions (defined by a box of extent 5–25° S, 40–70° W, used for calculating mean values given below). The cloud cover at all altitudes in the region of greatest BBA difference is reduced as a result of the semi-direct effect, by heating of the atmosphere by the BBA and changes in the atmospheric stability and surface fluxes. Within the BBA layer the cloud is reduced by burn-off, while the higher cloud changes appear to be responding to stability changes. The boundary layer is reduced in height and stabilized by increased BBA, resulting in reduced deep convection and reduced cloud cover at heights of 9–14 km, above the layer of BBA. Despite the decrease in cloud fraction, September downwelling clear-sky and all-sky shortwave radiation at the surface is reduced for higher emissions by 13.77 ± 0.39 W m−2 (clear-sky) and 7.37 ± 2.29 W m−2 (all-sky), whilst the upwelling shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere is increased in clear sky by 3.32 ± 0.09 W m−2, but decreased by −1.36±1.67 W m−2 when cloud changes are included. Shortwave heating rates increase in the aerosol layer by 18 % in the high emissions case. The mean surface temperature is reduced by 0.14 ± 0.24 °C and mean precipitation is reduced by 14.5 % in the peak biomass region due to both changes in cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties. If the increase in BBA occurs in a particularly dry year, the resulting reduction in precipitation may exacerbate the drought. The position of the South Atlantic high pressure is slightly altered by the presence of increased BBA, and the strength of the southward low-level jet to the east of the Andes is increased. There is some evidence that some impacts of increased BBA persist through the transition into the monsoon, particularly in precipitation, but the differences are only statistically significant in some small regions in November. This study therefore provides an insight into how variability in deforestation, realized through variability in biomass burning emissions, may contribute to the South American climate, and consequently on the possible impacts of future changes in BBA emissions
Recommended from our members
Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks
There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference
Recommended from our members
A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis
This study investigates the robustness of the long-term changes in the
wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the ERA20C reanalysis. A
statistically significant trend in the AO is found in ERA20C over the
period 1900-2010. These long-term changes in the AO are not found
in two other observational datasets.
The long term change in the AO in ERA20C is associated with
statistically significant negative trend (approximately -6hPa per century)
in mean-sea level pressure (MSLP) over the Northern Hemisphere (NH)
polar regions. This is not seen in the HADSLP2 observational dataset, suggesting that the trends
in the ERA20C AO index may be spurious.
The spurious long term changes in MSLP and the AO
index in ERA20C result in a strengthening of the meridional MSLP
gradient in ERA20C. The strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient
is consistent with increases in wintertime storminess in Northern
Europe and the NH high latitudes
Recommended from our members
Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?
Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model
Recommended from our members
The response of the northern hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams to climate change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models
The representation of the northern hemisphere (NH) storm tracks and jet streams and their response to climate change has been evaluated in climate model simulations from phases 3, 5 and 6 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). The spatial patterns of the multi‐model biases in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 are similar, however the magnitudes of the biases in the CMIP6 models are substantially lower. For instance, the multi‐model mean RMSE of the North Atlantic storm track for the CMIP6 models (as measured by time‐filtered sea‐level pressure variance) is over 50% smaller than that of the CMIP3 models in both winter and summer, and over 40% smaller for the North Pacific. The magnitude of the jet stream biases are also reduced in CMIP6, but by a lesser extent. Despite this improved representation of the current climate, the spatial patterns of the climate change response of the NH storm tracks and jet streams remain similar in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. The SSP2‐4.5 scenario responses in the CMIP6 models are substantially larger than in the RCP4.5 CMIP5 models, which is consistent with the larger climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5
Recommended from our members
The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data
Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging natural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs when many intense cyclones affect one specific geographic region in a short period of time which can potentially lead to very large seasonal losses. Previous studies have shown that intense cyclones may be more likely to cluster than less intense cyclones. We revisit this topic using a high resolution climate model with the aim to determine how important clustering is for windstorm related losses.
The role of windstorm clustering is investigated using a quantifiable metric (storm severity index, SSI) that is based on near surface meteorological variables (10-metre wind speed) and is a good proxy for losses. The SSI is used to convert a wind footprint into losses for individual windstorms or seasons. 918 years of a present-day ensemble of coupled climate model simulations from the High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) are compared to ERA-Interim re-analysis. HiGEM is able to successfully reproduce the wintertime North Atlantic/European circulation, and represent the large-scale circulation associated with the serial clustering of European windstorms. We use two measures to identify any changes in the contribution of clustering to the seasonal windstorm loss as a function of return period.
Above a return period of 3 years, the accumulated seasonal loss from HiGEM is up to 20% larger than the accumulated seasonal loss from a set of random resamples of the HiGEM data. Seasonal losses are increased by 10-20% relative to randomised seasonal losses at a return period of 200 years. The contribution of the single largest event in a season to the accumulated seasonal loss does not change with return period, generally ranging between 25-50%.
Given the realistic dynamical representation of cyclone clustering in HiGEM, and comparable statistics to ERA-Interim, we conclude that our estimation of clustering and its dependence on the return period will be useful for informing the development of risk models for European windstorms, particularly for longer return periods
Recommended from our members
Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models
Analysis of 20th century simulations of the High resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) and the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models shows that most have a cold sea-surface temperature (SST) bias in the northern Arabian Sea during boreal winter. The association between Arabian Sea SST and the South Asian monsoon has been widely studied in observations and models, with winter cold biases known to be detrimental to rainfall simulation during the subsequent monsoon in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). However, the causes of these SST biases are not well understood. Indeed this is one of the first papers to address causes of the cold biases. The models show anomalously strong north-easterly winter monsoon winds and cold air temperatures in north-west India, Pakistan and beyond. This leads to the anomalous advection of cold, dry air over the Arabian Sea. The cold land region is also associated with an anomalously strong meridional surface temperature gradient during winter, contributing to the enhanced low-level convergence and excessive precipitation over the western equatorial Indian Ocean seen in many models
Recommended from our members
The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012
The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high-loss (severe) storms. The best-performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated. Possible reasons for this underestimation include the model failing to simulate strong enough pressure gradients and not representing convective gusts.
A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at www.europeanwindstorms.org
Recommended from our members
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations
This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario.
Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability.
Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations
Patient-Reported Outcomes After Complex Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery: 5-Year Results of the Scoli-Risk-1 Study
Adult spinal deformity; Patient reported outcomes; Spinal deformity surgeryDeformidad espinal en el adulto; Resultados informados por el paciente; Cirugía de deformidad espinalDeformitat espinal de l'adult; Resultats informats pel pacient; Cirurgia de deformitat espinalStudy Design:
Prospective cohort.
Objective:
To prospectively evaluate PROs up to 5-years after complex ASD surgery.
Methods:
The Scoli-RISK-1 study enrolled 272 ASD patients undergoing surgery from 15 centers. Inclusion criteria was Cobb angle of >80°, corrective osteotomy for congenital or revision deformity, and/or 3-column osteotomy. The following PROs were measured prospectively at intervals up to 5-years postoperative: ODI, SF36-PCS/MCS, SRS-22, NRS back/leg. Among patients with 5-year follow-up, comparisons were made from both baseline and 2-years postoperative to 5-years postoperative. PROs were analyzed using mixed models for repeated measures.
Results:
Seventy-seven patients (28.3%) had 5-year follow-up data. Comparing baseline to 5-year data among these 77 patients, significant improvement was seen in all PROs: ODI (45.2 vs. 29.3, P 0.05) and proportion achieving MCID did not differ significantly in patients with major surgery-related complications compared to those without.
Conclusions:
After complex ASD surgery, significant improvement in PROs were seen at 5-years postoperative in ODI, SF36-PCS/MCS, SRS-22r, and NRS-back/leg pain. No significant changes in PROs occurred during the 2 to 5-year postoperative period. Those with major surgery-related complications had similar PROs and proportion of patients achieving MCID as those without these complications.The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was funded by AO Spine through the AO Spine Knowledge Forum Deformity, the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS), and Norton Healthcare. AO Spine Knowledge Forum Deformity is a focused group of international deformity experts. AO Spine is a clinical division of the AO Foundation, which is an independent medically-guided not-for-profit organization. Study support was provided directly through the AO Spine Research Department and the AO Innovation Translation Center, Clinical Evidence
- …