Real Options: Examples and Principles of Valuation and Strategy

The paper illustrates the use of real options and game theory principles to value prototypical investment projects and capture important competitive/strategic dimensions in a step-by-step analysis of investment decisions (options) under uncertainty. It first illustrates the application of real options principles to a mining concession and to an R&D program. It then provides examples from innovation cases and uses basic game theory principles to discuss other strategic and competitive aspects, especially applicable to oligopolistic industries like consumer electronics. The issue of whether (and when) it is optimal to compete independently or coordinate/collaborate (e.g., via joint R&D ventures or strategic alliances) is given particular attention

Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games

Corporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes cutting-edge developments in corporate finance and related fields--in particular, real options and game theory--to help bridge this gap. In clear, straightforward exposition and through numerous examples and applications from various industries, Han Smit and Lenos Trigeorgis set forth an extended valuation framework for competitive strategies. The book follows a problem-solving approach that synthesizes ideas from game theory, real options, and strategy. Thinking in terms of options-games can help managers address questions such as: When is it best to invest early to preempt competitive entry, and when to wait? Should a firm compete in R&D or adopt an accommodating stance? How does one value growth options or infrastructure investments? The authors provide a wide range of valuation examples, such as acquisition strategies, R&D investment in high-tech sectors, joint research ventures, product introductions in consumer electronics, infrastructure, and oil exploration investment. Representing a major step beyond standard real options or strategy analysis, and extending the power of real options and strategic thinking in a rigorous fashion, Strategic Investment will be an indispensable guide and resource for corporate managers, MBA students, and academics alike

Optimal seismic upgrade timing in seaports with increasing throughput demand via real options

A real options (RO) formulation is proposed for decision-making on the timing to upgrade the seismic performance of existing seaports with increasing throughput demand in earthquake prone areas. The pay-off of the seismic upgrade investment option is estimated based on projected net earnings, repair cost, and downtime for a damaging reference seismic event having a pre-specified annual probability of occurrence. These projections inform a discrete-time RO binomial tree, following the American option valuation framework, which propagates the probability of the reference seismic event assuming Poisson temporal distribution of earthquake occurrence. The net present value of the expected annual payoff of the considered investment is used as an index supporting risk-informed decision-making discounted by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Numerical examples pertaining to decision makers with different capital cost, namely port authorities and terminal operators, operating in different economic environments typical of developed and developing countries are furnished to illustrate the applicability of the proposed RO formulation. It is found that high WACC and/or low throughput growth bring the optimal seismic upgrade timing forward, while earthquake consequences and upgrade cost have almost no influence on this timing

A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Optimal entry to an irreversible investment plan with non convex costs

A problem of optimally purchasing electricity at a real-valued spot price (that is, allowing negative prices) has been recently addressed in De Angelis et al. (SIAM J Control Optim 53(3), 1199–1223, 2015). The problem can be considered one of irreversible investment with a cost function which is non convex with respect to the control variable. In this paper we study optimal entry into the investment plan. The optimal entry policy can have an irregular boundary, with a kinked shape

Portfolio configuration and foreign entry decisions: A juxtaposition of real options and risk diversification theories

Research Summary Research on foreign market entry has rarely considered that multinational firms' new entries may be affected by the configuration of their existing affiliates. We argue that in making entry decisions, firms take into account how an entry into a new location helps increase the operational flexibility of their affiliate portfolios due to options to switch operations across affiliates in case of diverging labor cost developments across host countries. We juxtapose this real options‐based explanation with a risk diversification explanation. Analysis of Japanese multinational firms' foreign entry decisions suggests that the two explanations are complementary. We also establish portfolio‐level boundary conditions to the influence of operational flexibility considerations on entry, in the form of product diversification and the nature of dispersion of labor cost levels. Managerial Summary When deciding on whether to enter a foreign market, managers of a multinational firm are intuitively aware that they need to consider how the economic environment of the target host country is related to the environments of the existing countries in which the firm operates. The less the environments are correlated with each other, whether in terms of input cost or market demand conditions, the greater the chance that the firm may capture cost savings and reduce sales volatility globally. These benefits arise from a switching option to shift operations flexibly across countries and from an ability to reduce risk by holding a portfolio of diversified global investments. Our findings support both sets of considerations, suggesting that companies do give due attention to correlations in labor cost and market demand between the target host country to enter and the existing host countries

Strategic implications of valuation methods

Author's OriginalStrategy is ultimately aimed at creating shareholder value, placing valuation in a central role linking finance and strategy. Focusing on growth options, this paper uses a unique "perfect information" model to examine, from a strategy point of view, the relationship between the market value of the firm and its intrinsic, or DCF, value. Although the research is at the level of the firm, the results have implications at the level of individual strategies and projects, since a firm can be conceptualized as a collection of projects. The findings highlight the relationship between the value of growth options and macroeconomic conditions, industry characteristics, and firm-specific factors. A revised version of this paper has since been published in the journal Advances in Strategic Management. Please use this version in your citations.Alessandri, T. M., Lander, D. M., & Bettis, R. A. (2007), Strategic Implications of Valuation: Evidence from Valuing Growth Options, in Professor Brian Silverman (ed.) Real Options Theory. Advances in Strategic Management, 24, 459-48

25 Years of Real Option Empirical Research in Management

For several decades, management scholars have extolled the virtues of using real option logic when making decisions under uncertainty. Real option logic suggests that in such situations, firms might be better off deferring or staging investments, reducing potential financial losses, while at the same time securing an option to grow (or abandon) the investment when uncertainty abates. Our analysis of the empirical research published in leading management journals over the past 25 years suggests that while some progress has been made, much more work needs to be done. We still do not have the answers to critical questions such as: Which entrepreneurial/managerial traits impact the identification or exploitation of real options? Do multiple types of uncertainties interact with each other and influence real option decisions? Addressing these and other issues identified in our study can help improve our understanding of the usefulness of real option logic in management

The effects of an uncertain abandonment value on the investment decision

YesUsing a three-factor stochastic real option model framework, this paper examines the effects of abandonment on the investment decision. Abandonment is classified according to whether the opportunity arises for an active operating asset post-investment, or for holding the project opportunity pre-investment. Separate analytical models are developed for the alternative forms of abandonment optionality. Numerical sensitivity analysis shows that the presence of a post-investment abandonment opportunity makes the investment opportunity appear to be more attractive because of the abandonment option value, but not by a considerable amount. Also, in contrast to the standard real option finding, an abandonment value volatility increase produces a project value threshold fall owing to the increase in the abandonment option value