Small area estimation : an application to the estimation of the labour market variables in galician counties

[Resumen] El desempleo es actualmente uno de los problemas más importantes de nuestra sociedad. Las medidas globales de lucha contra el desempleo no suelen ser satisfactorias para llevar a cabo políticas efectivas a nivel local, de ahí la necesidad de herramientas que permitan disponer con precisión de información del mercado de trabajo a nivel local. En España la estimación de los indicadores del mercado laboral se hace mediante la Encuesta de Población Activa que está diseñada para obtener información a nivel provincial. Los tamaños de muestra por debajo del nivel de desagregación de provincia son bajos y los estimadores directos en las comarcas o en los municipios suelen tener poca precisión. Por tanto, el objetivo de esta tesis es la estimación de indicadores del mercado laboral, tales como ocupados, parados y tasas de paro, en las comarcas gallegas. Utilizamos técnicas de estimación en áreas pequeñas con modelos multinomiales mixtos. El primer modelo que utilizamos para la estimación de los indicadores laborales es un modelo multinomial mixto a nivel de área basado en Molina et al. (2007). Estos autores consideraron un efecto aleatorio común para las dos categorías multinomiales (ocupados y parados). En el problema real esta situación no es apropiada por las distintas características de estos dos grupos poblacionales. Esta es la razón por la cual nosotros introducimos en el modelo dos efectos aleatorios, uno para cada una de las categorías multinomiales. Además, la disponibilidad de encuestas para distintos periodos de tiempo produce un importante incremento en la muestra en las áreas y nos permite introducir en el modelo efectos aleatorios independientes y correlados a lo largo del tiempo. La estimación de la precisión en los estimadores de áreas pequeñas es fundamental porque a menudo estos son sesgados. En este trabajo utilizamos diferentes métodos para la estimación del error cuadrático medio, mediante expresiones analíticas y mediante técnicas bootstrap.[Resumo] O desemprego é actualmente un dos problemas máis importantes da nosa sociedade. As medidas globais de loita contra o desemprego non adoitan ser satisfactorias para levar a cabo políticas efectivas a nivel local, de aí a necesidade de ferramentas que permitan dispor con precisión de información do mercado de traballo a nivel local. En España a estimación dos indicadores do mercado laboral faise mediante a Enquisa de Poboación Activa que está deseñada para obter información a nivel provincial. Os tamaños de mostra por debaixo do nivel de desagregación de provincia son baixos e os estimadores directos nas comarcas ou nos municipios adoitan ter pouca precisión. Polo tanto, o obxectivo desta tese é a estimación de indicadores do mercado laboral, tales como ocupados, parados e taxas de paro, nas comarcas galegas. Utilizamos técnicas de estimación en áreas pequenas con modelos multinomiais mixtos. O primeiro modelo que utilizamos para a estimación dos indicadores laborais é un modelo multinomial mixto a nivel de área baseado en Molina et al. (2007). Estes autores consideraron un efecto aleatorio común para as dúas categor_ás multinomiais (ocupados e parados). No problema real esta situación non é apropiada polas distintas características destes dous grupos poboacionais. Esta é a razón pola cal nós introducimos no modelo dous efectos aleatorios, un para cada unha das categorías multinomiais. Ademais, a dispoñibilidade de enquisas para distintos períodos de tempo produce un importante incremento da mostra nas áreas e permítenos introducir no modelo efectos aleatorios independentes e correlados ao longo do tempo. A estimación da precisión nos estimadores de áreas pequenas é fundamental porque a miúdo estes son nesgados. Neste traballo utilizamos diferentes métodos para a estimación do erro cuadrático medio, mediante expresións analíticas e mediante técnicas bootstrap.[Abstract] Unemployment is currently one of the most important problems of our society. Global measures to ght against unemployment are usually not satisfactory to carry out e ective policies at the local level, hence the need of tools to provide accurate labor market information at local level. In Spain the estimation of labor market indicators is made by means of the Labour Force Survey that is designed to obtain information at the provincial level. Sample sizes below the provincial level of disaggregation are low and direct estimators in the counties or municipalities often have low precision. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to estimate labor indicators, such as employed, unemployed and unemployment rates, in Galician counties. We use small area estimation techniques under area level multinomial mixed models. We will rst use estimators based on the area level multinomial mixed model introduced by Molina et al. (2007). These authors considered a model with a common random e ect for the two multinomial categories (employed and unemployed people). In the real data problem this may not be appropriate because of the very different characteristics of these two populations. This is the reason why we introduce in the model two random e ects, one for each of the multinomial categories. In addition, the availability of surveys for di erent periods of time produces a signi cant increase of the domain samples and allows us to introduce in the model independent and correlated time random e ects. The estimate of the accuracy of the estimators of small areas is a fundamental issue because these estimators are often biased. In this work we use di erent methods for estimating the mean squared error, by using analytical expressions and using bootstrap techniques

Selection model for domains across time: application to labour force survey by economic activities

This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11749-020-00712-4[Abstract]: This paper introduces a small area estimation approach that borrows strength across domains (areas) and time and is efficiently used to obtain labour force estimators by economic activity. Specifically, the data across time are used to select different models for each domain; such selection is done with an aggregated mixed generalized Akaike information criterion statistic which is obtained using data across all time points and then is split into individual component for each domain. The approach makes a selection from different estimators, including the direct estimator, synthetic and mixed estimators derived from different models using auxiliary information. Results from several simulation experiments, some with original designs, show the good performance of the approach against standard small area approaches. In addition, it is shown the important practical advantages in the real application.Supported by the MINECO Grants MTM2017-82724-R, MTM2015-71217-R, and by the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C-2016-015 and Centro Singular de Investigación de Galicia ED431G/01), all of them through the ERDF.Xunta de Galicia; ED431C-2016-015Xunta de Galicia; ED431G/0

A New Approach to the Gender Pay Gap Decomposition by Economic Activity

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, following peer review. The version of record [M. J. Lombardía, E. López-Vizcaíno, y C. Rueda, «A New Approach to the Gender Pay Gap Decomposition by Economic Activity», Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 185, n.º 1, pp. 219-245, ene. 2022] is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12742.[Abstract]: The aim of this paper is to present an original approach to estimate the gender pay gap (GPG). We propose a model-based decomposition, similar to the most popular approaches, where the first component measures differences in group characteristics and the second component measures the unexplained effect; the latter being the real gap. The novel approach incorporates model selection and bias correction. The pay gap problem in a small area context is considered in this paper, although the approach is flexible to be applied to other contexts. Specifically, the methodology is validated for analysing wage differentials by economic activities in the region of Galicia (Spain) and by analysing simulated data from an experimental design that imitates the generation of real data. The good performance of the proposed estimators is shown in both cases, specifically when compared with those obtained from the widely used Oaxaca–Blinder approach.Supported by the MINECO grants MTM2017-82724-R, MTM2015-71217-R, and by the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C 2020/14 and Centro de Investigación del Sistema universitario de Galicia ED431G 2019/01), all of them through the ERDF.Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2020/14Xunta de Galicia; ED431G 2019/0

Measurement of Quality of Life in the Galician Counties

Texto dispoñible en galego e españolNo presente artigo abórdase unha proposta que pretende achegar unha medida da calidade de vida das comarcas galegas desde un punto de vista socioeconómico. Con este propósito emprégase a técnica da Análise Envolvente de Datos, habitualmente utilizada noutros eidos científicos e académicos e que, neste caso, se empregará para a construción dun indicador sintético que permita a comparación das comarcas en termos de calidade de vida. Os resultados obtidos proporcionan non só unha separación entre as comarcas consideradas como eficientes e as que non o son, senón tamén un conxunto de comarcas que serven de referentes para aquelas non eficientesEn el presente artículo se aborda una propuesta que pretende aproximar una medida de la calidad de vida de las comarcas gallegas desde un punto de vista socioeconómico. Con este propósito se emplea la técnica del Análisis Envolvente de Datos, habitualmente utilizada en otros campos científicos y académicos y que, en este caso, se empleará para la construcción de un indicador sintético que permita la comparación de las comarcas en términos de calidad de vida. Los resultados obtenidos proporcionan no sólo una separación entre las comarcas consideradas como eficientes y las que no lo son, sino también un conjunto de comarcas que sirven de referentes para aquellas no eficientesThis paper aims to provide a measurement of the quality of life for the Galician counties (comarcas) from an economic and social point of view. For this purpose, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to the data in order to obtain a synthetic indicator. This indicator will allow to compare the quality of life of the counties. The results will provide not only a comparison between counties but also a set of counties that can be used as a referenceS

Small area estimation of proportions under area-level compositional mixed models

[Abstract]: This paper introduces area-level compositional mixed models by applying transformations to a multivariate Fay–Herriot model. Small area estimators of the proportions of the categories of a classification variable are derived from the new model, and the corresponding mean squared errors are estimated by parametric bootstrap. Several simulation experiments designed to analyse the behaviour of the introduced estimators are carried out. An application to real data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey of Galicia (north-west of Spain), in the first quarter of 2017, is given. The target is the estimation of domain proportions of people in the four categories of the variable labour status: under 16 years, employed, unemployed and inactive.Supported by the Instituto Galego de Estatística, by the grants PGC2018-096840-B-I00 and MTM2017-82724-R of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and by the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C-2016-015 and Centro Singular de Investigación de Galicia ED431G/01), all of them through the ERDF.Xunta de Galicia; ED431C-2016-015Xunta de Galicia; ED431G/0

Small area estimation of average compositions under multivariate nested error regression models

[Abstract]: This paper investigates the small area estimation of population averages of unit-level compositional data. The new methodology transforms the compositions into vectors of Rm and assumes that the vectors follow a multivariate nested error regression model. Empirical best predictors of domain indicators are derived from the fitted model, and their mean squared errors are estimated by parametric bootstrap. The empirical analysis of the behavior of the introduced predictors is investigated by means of simulation experiments. An application to real data from the Spanish household budget survey is given. The target is to estimate the average of proportions of annual household expenditures on food, housing and others, by Spanish provinces.Generalitat Valenciana; Prometeo/2021/063Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2020/14Xunta de Galicia; ED431G 2019/01Axencia Galega de Innovación; COV20/00604Supported by the Instituto Galego de Estatística, by the Grants PGC2018-096840-B-I00 and PID2020-113578RB-I00 of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, by the Grant Prometeo/2021/063 of the Generalitat Valenciana, and by the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C 2020/14), and by GAIN (Galician Innovation Agency) and the Regional Ministry of Economy, Employment and Industry Grant COV20/00604 and Centro de Investigación del Sistema Universitario de Galicia ED431G 2019/01, all of them through the ERDF

Small area estimation of expenditure means and ratios under a unit-level bivariate linear mixed model

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Applied Statistics on 05 Aug 2020, available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1803809[Abstract]: Under a unit-level bivariate linear mixed model, this paper introduces small area predictors of expenditure means and ratios, and derives approximations and estimators of the corresponding mean squared errors. For the considered model, the REML estimation method is implemented. Several simulation experiments, designed to analyze the behavior of the introduced fitting algorithm, predictors and mean squared error estimators, are carried out. An application to real data from the Spanish household budget survey illustrates the behavior of the proposed statistical methodology. The target is the estimation of means of food and non-food household annual expenditures and of ratios of food household expenditures by Spanish provinces.Supported by the grants MTM2017-82724-R and PGC2018-096840-B-I00 of the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) and by the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C-2016-015 and Centro Singular de Investigación de Galicia ED431G/01), all of them through the ERDF.Xunta de Galicia; ED431C-2016-015Xunta de Galicia; ED431G/0

Crianças e jovens diante dos dispositivos: novos fenômenos de comunicação e criadores de novos produtos

Los creadores de contenidos en las diferentes plataformas (como YouTube, Instagram o TikTok) son cada vez son más jóvenes. Los niños y adolescentes son protagonistas de este fenómeno tanto en la creación como en el consumo de los mismos. Los medios tradicionales se han relegado a un segundo plano dejando un claro protagonismo a las plataformas de intercambios de contenido (videos, fotografías, etc.). A través de estos últimos generan mensajes hacia sus iguales con los mismos lenguajes, códigos, preferencias y gustos. Esto promueve un gran interés de las marcas comerciales para estar presentes en este entorno digital. Estas son las cuestiones en las que ahonda este monográfico, donde sus textos nos recuerdan viejos fantasmas de la educación en medios, nos muestran los principales rasgos de los contenidos creados por niños como influencers, las posibles razones por los que algunos influencers consiguen agradar a sus seguidores o la actitud crítica de la audiencia frente a la relación menores-publicidad. El fenómeno fan y su canalización desde las series de ficción a las redes sociales completan el panorama del monográfico.Content creators across platforms such as YouTube, Instagram, or TikTok are increasingly younger. Children and adolescents are the protagonists of this phenomenon both in content creation and consumption. Traditional media have been relegated to a secondary role, opening the door to platforms to exchange content (videos, images). In such platforms, young creators generate messages to their peers using their same language, codes, preferences, and taste. This, in turn, sparks interest in commercial brands to be present in this digital realm. Such are the questions that this special issue investigates. Its articles remind us of the old ghosts of media literacy, showing us the main features of the content created by children as influencers, the potential reasons some influencers manage to connect with their follower base, or the critical audience attitude towards advertising targeting minors. Lastly, this special issue covers the fan phenomenon and its transposition from fiction television to social networks.Os criadores de conteúdos em diferentes plataformas (tais como YouTube, Instagram ou TikTok) são cada vez mais jovens. As crianças e os adolescentes são protagonistas deste fenómeno, quer na criação quer no consumo de conteúdos. Os meios tradicionais foram postos em segundo plano, deixando num papel protagonista às plataformas de partilha de conteúdos (vídeos, fotografias, etc.). Através destas últimos, os jovens produzem mensagens para os seus colegas com as mesmas linguagens, códigos, preferências e gostos. Isto promove um grande interesse das marcas comerciais de estarem presentes neste ambiente digital. Estas são as questões que esta monografia explora em profundidade, onde os seus textos lembram-nos velhos fantasmas da educação mediática, apresentam-nos as principais características do conteúdo criado pelas crianças como influenciadores, abrangem as possíveis razões pelas quais alguns influenciadores conseguem agradar aos seus seguidores ou a atitude crítica do público face à relação entre os menores e a publicidade. O fenómeno fã e a sua canalização desde séries de ficção até as redes sociais completam o panorama da monografia

Dimensionality of the economic capacity whithin the Galician counties

Texto dispoñible en galego e españolNeste artigo o obxectivo xeral que se establece é realizar unha análise exploratoria dun conxunto suficientemente amplo de variables que, nun primeiro momento, están relacionadas coa capacidade económica a nivel comarcal. Dentro deste marco xeral, en primeiro lugar, créase un indicador sintético da capacidade económica mediante unha análise de compoñentes principais que permitirá obter unha clasificación segundo diversas características combinadas. A continuación, realízase unha análise factorial para resumir e simplifica-la información das variables de caracterización das comarcas. Finalmente, lévase a cabo unha análise cluster para conseguir agrupacións das comarcas segundo criterios de homoxeneidadeThe main objective of this paper is to carry out an exploratory analysis of a broad enough group of variables related to the economic capacity at a local level. Within this frame, the first step is to create a synthetic index of the economic capacity. This index will allow to achieve a ranking according to several mixed characteristics. Afterwards, a factorial analysis is carried out. Such an analysis summarizes and simplifies the information about the different variables which characterize the counties (comarcas). The final task consists of a cluster analysis whose aim is to obtain groups of counties according to criteria of homogeneityEn este artículo el objetivo general que se establece es realizar un análisis exploratorio de un conjunto suficientemente amplio de variables que, en un primer momento, están relacionadas con la capacidad económica a nivel comarcal. Dentro de este marco general, en primer lugar, se crea un indicador sintético de la capacidad económica mediante un análisis de componentes principales que permitirá obtener una clasificación según diversas características combinadas. A continuación, se realiza un análisis factorial para resumir y simplificar la información de las variables de caracterización de las comarcas. Finalmente, se lleva a cabo un análisis cluster para conseguir agrupaciones de las comarcas teniendo en cuenta criterios de homogeneidadS

Combinatorial formulas for Kazhdan-Lusztig polynomials with respect to W-graph ideals

In \cite{y1} Yin generalized the definition of $W$-graph ideal $E_J$ in weighted Coxeter groups and introduced the weighted Kazhdan-Lusztig polynomials $\left \{ P_{x,y} \mid x,y\in E_J\right \}$, where $J$ is a subset of simple generators $S$. In this paper, we study the combinatorial formulas for those polynomials, which extend the results of Deodhar \cite{v3} and Tagawa \cite{h1}.Comment: 16 page