The consumption/wealth and book/market ratios in a dynamic asset pricing contex.

This paper addresses new insights into the predictability of financial returns. In particular, we analyze two aspects of the controversial forecasting literature. On the one hand, we demonstrate a positive and contemporaneous link between aggregate book/market and consumption/wealth ratios. On the other hand, we show that real estate and human capital, as the present value of all future salaries, are key components of the consumption/wealth ratio in Spain. Specifically, we find that the cointegrating residuals of consumption, asset holdings, real estate holdings, and our measure of human capital provide a better forecast of future returns than does the standard proxy of the consumption/wealth ratio. This result is important because it clarifies the importance of country-specific components of wealth for cases in which the consumption/wealth ratio is employed as an instrument in conditional asset pricing models.Stock markets; Predictability; Consumption; Aggregate wealth; Book/market;

Enharmonic motion: Towards the global dynamics of negative delayed feedback

In this thesis, we establish a new method for describing the qualitative dynamics of the so-called Hopf-Smale attractors in scalar delay differential equations with symmetric negative delayed feedback. The dynamics of Hopf-Smale attractors are robust under regular perturbations. Qualitatively, the attractor consists of an equilibrium, periodic orbits, and connections between them. We describe the mechanism that produces the periodic orbits and show how their formation creates new connecting orbits via sequences of Hopf bifurcations. As a result, we obtain an enumeration of all the phase diagrams, that is, the directed graphs encoding the equilibrium and periodic orbits as vertices and the connections as edges. In particular, we have obtained a prototype, the so-called enharmonic oscillator, that realizes all Hopf-Smale phase diagrams. Besides describing the Hopf-Smale attractors, our method also sheds insight into the formation process of certain global attractors with positive delayed feedback.In dieser Arbeit wird eine neue Methode zur Beschreibung der qualitativen Dynamik der sogenannten Hopf-Smale-Attraktoren in skalaren retardierten Differentialgleichung mit symmetrischer negativer verzögerter Rückkopplung entwickelt. Die Dynamik von Hopf-Smale-Attraktoren ist robust gegenüber regelmäßigen Störungen. Qualitativ besteht der Attraktor aus einem Gleichgewicht, periodischen Orbits und Orbits zwischen diesen. Wir beschreiben den Mechanismus, der die periodischen Orbits erzeugt und zeigen, wie dieser neue verbindende Orbits über Sequenzen von Hopf-Bifurkationen erzeugt. Als Ergebnis erhalten wir eine Aufzählung aller Phasendiagramme, d.h. der gerichteten Graphen, die die Gleichgewichts- und periodischen Bahnen als Knoten und die Verbindungen als Kanten kodieren. Insbesondere haben wir einen Prototyp, den sogenannten enharmonischen Oszillator, gefunden, der alle Hopf-Smale-Phasendiagramme verwirklicht. Neben der Beschreibung der Hopf-Smale-Attraktoren gibt unsere Methode auch Aufschluss über den Entstehungsprozess bestimmter globaler Attraktoren mit positiver verzögerter Rückkopplung

Past and present potential distribution of the Iberian Abies species: A phytogeographic approach using pollen data and species distribution models

This is the accepted version of the following article: Alba-Sánchez, F., López-Sáez, J. A., Pando, B. B.-d., Linares, J. C., Nieto-Lugilde, D. and López-Merino, L. (2010), Past and present potential distribution of the Iberian Abies species: a phytogeographic approach using fossil pollen data and species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions, 16: 214–228, which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00636.x/abstract.Aim - Quaternary palaeopalynological records collected throughout the Iberian Peninsula and species distribution models (SDMs) were integrated to gain a better understanding of the historical biogeography of the Iberian Abies species (i.e. Abies pinsapo and Abies alba). We hypothesize that SDMs and Abies palaeorecords are closely correlated, assuming a certain stasis in climatic and topographic ecological niche dimensions. In addition, the modelling results were used to assign the fossil records to A. alba or A. pinsapo, to identify environmental variables affecting their distribution, and to evaluate the ecological segregation between the two taxa. Location - The Iberian Peninsula. Methods - For the estimation of past Abies distributions, a hindcasting process was used. Abies pinsapo and A. alba were modelled individually, first calibrating the model for their current distributions in relation to the present climate, and then projecting it into the past—the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the Middle Holocene periods—in relation to palaeoclimate simulations. The resulting models were compared with Iberian-wide fossil pollen records to detect areas of overlap. Results - The overlap observed between past Abies refugia—inferred from fossil pollen records—and the SDMs helped to construct the Quaternary distribution of the Iberian Abies species. SDMs yielded two well-differentiated potential distributions: A. pinsapo throughout the Baetic mountain Range and A. alba along the Pyrenees and Cantabrian Range. These results propose that the two taxa remained isolated throughout the Quaternary, indicating a significant geographical and ecological segregation. In addition, no significant differences were detected comparing the three projections (present-day, Mid-Holocene and LGM), suggesting a relative climate stasis in the refuge areas during the Quaternary. Main conclusions - Our results confirm that SDM projections can provide a useful complement to palaeoecological studies, offering a less subjective and spatially explicit hypothesis concerning past geographic patterns of Iberian Abies species. The integration of ecological-niche characteristics from known occurrences of Abies species in conjunction with palaeoecological studies could constitute a suitable tool to define appropriate areas in which to focus proactive conservation strategies.The Andalusian Innovation, Science, and Industry Regional Ministry and the National Plan of the Spanish Government

Herramienta para la compensación de parámetros de QoS y seguridad

El análisis conjunto de mecanismos de seguridad y QoS es esencial para las redes heterogéneas donde diversos dispositivos pueden coexistir en entornos dinámicos. En concreto, los dispositivos no siempre pueden ser conocidos, por lo que diferentes requisitos y mecanismos pueden surgir para el análisis. En este artículo, proponemos una herramienta para facilitar la configuración de entornos basada en el análisis paramétrico de dependencias, tomando como base de conocimiento un conjunto de parámetros de seguridad y QoS. Esta forma de análisis de parámetros a alto nivel permite considerar las dependencias y la compensación entre mecanismos con independencia del sistema de información subyacente. Posibilita por tanto evaluar el impacto que tales mecanismos, y otros definidos acorde al modelo, tienen sobre un sistema previo a su despliegue.Este trabajo ha sido parcialmente subvencionado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad a través del proyecto ARES (CSD2007-00004). Adicionalmente, ha sido financiado por la Junta de Andalucía través del proyecto FISICCO (TIC-07223). El primer autor ha sido subvencionado por el Programa FPI

Pushing the limits of concertedness. A waltz of wandering carbocations.

Among the array of complex terpene-forming carbocation cyclization/rearrangement reactions, the so-called "triple shift" reactions are among the most unexpected. Such reactions involve the asynchronous combination of three 1,n-shifts into a concerted process, e.g., a 1,2-alkyl shift followed by a 1,3-hydride shift followed by a second 1,2-alkyl shift. This type of reaction so far has been proposed to occur during the biosynthesis of diterpenes and the sidechains of sterols. Here we describe efforts to push the limits of concertedness in this type of carbocation reaction by designing, and characterizing with quantum chemical computations, systems that could couple additional 1,n-shift events to a triple shift leading, in principle to quadruple, pentuple, etc. shifts. While our designs did not lead to clear-cut examples of quadruple, etc. shifts, they did lead to reactions with surprisingly flat energy surfaces where more than five chemical events connect reactants and plausible products. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations demonstrate that the formal minima on these surfaces interchange on short timescales, both with each other and with additional unexpected structures, allowing us a glimpse into a very complex manifold that allows ready access to great structural diversity

Modelos de valoración de activos condicionales: un panorama comparativo con datos españoles

Este trabajo trata de profundizar en el papel de la información del momento económico cuando ésta se incorpora a los modelos de valoración de activos. Para ello, en primer lugar, se hace una descripción de la teoría de valoración de activos que engloba todos los modelos de valoración existentes, tanto estáticos como dinámicos, así como las dos formas fundamentales de contemplar dinamismo. Además, se acompaña de una ilustración, para el caso del mercado español, que presenta los resultados empíricos de tres modelos clásicos en la literatura, el CAPM estándar, un modelo CAPM con consumo y el modelo de tres factores de Fama y French (1993). El trabajo muestra los resultados cuando se utilizan dos formas diferentes de condicionar: modelos escalados a la Cochrane (1996) y modelos condicionados a la Jagannathan y Wang (1996). Encontramos que el comportamiento empírico de los modelos condicionales mejora respecto a sus versiones incondicionales, donde además, los modelos escalados presentan menores errores de valoración y menores distancias de Hansen y Jagannathan que los correspondientes condicionados

Chiroptical Spectroscopy of C3 Molecules

The relevance of molecules with C3 symmetry comes from the fact of many of them, upon assembling as columnar helical macromolecules, are ideal platform for electro-optical devices, for example as liquid crystals. The properties of these devices are highly dependent of the structure of the bulk aggregates, and consequently they can be controlled by modifying the position and nature of the stereocenters in the molecular building blocks. In this work we present an electronic and vibrational chiroptical study on a series of star-shaped molecules based on the octopolar C3-symmetric 1,3,5-(phenylene-ethynylene)-benzene block.Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

First Report of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides Causing Anthracnose of Tejocote (Crataegus gracilior) Fruits in Mexico

Crataegus, is a genus classified in family Rosaceae and includes several tree species commonly called Tejocote that are widely cultivated for their pome fruits in Mexico. During fall of 2014, 2015, and 2016, severe symptoms of anthracnose were observed on approx. 60% of tejocote (Crataegus gracilior) fruits in an orchard located in Tulancingo, Oaxaca, Mexico. Affected fruits showed sunken, prominent, dark brown to black necrotic lesions, and were exuding salmon spore masses. To isolate the fungus, small pieces from tissue adjacent to the lesions of 10 symptomatic fruits were excised and surface disinfested by immersion in a 1% sodium hypochlorite solution for 2 min, rinsed three times in sterile distilled water, placed in Petri plates containing potato dextrose agar (PDA), and incubated at 25ºC for 5 to 7 days in darkness. Mycelial plugs were excised from the edge of the actively growing fungal colony and aseptically transferred to fresh PDA medium and incubated at 25°C for 6 days. Five monoconidial cultures were obtained by transferring germinated spores to Petri plates with fresh PDA. One isolate was selected as representative for morphological and molecular identification. Colonies of pure cultures exhibited greyish-white aerial mycelium and abundant salmon-pink conidial masses. Conidia (n= 100) were subcylindrical, hyaline, straight, one-celled, with rounded ends, measuring 13.6 to 17.7 × 4.4 to 5.9 μm. Conidial appressoria were ovoid and brown to dark brown. Based on morphological characteristics, the fungus was identified within the Colletotrichum gloeosporioides species complex (Weir et al. 2012). The isolate was designated UACH-177 and deposited in the Culture Collection of Phytopathogenic Fungi at the Chapingo Autonomous University. For molecular identification, the ITS region (White et al. 1990), and fragments of (Apn2) (Rojas et al. 2010), glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH), and β-tubulin 2 (TUB2) genes (Weir et al. 2012) were amplified by PCR, and sequenced. The sequences were deposited in GenBank (Accessions numbers ITS:MG821312; Apn2:MG821310; GAPDH:MG821311; and TUB2:MG821313). A phylogenetic analysis using Bayesian inference and including published ITS, Apn2, GAPDH, and TUB2 data for C. gloeosporioides and other Colletotrichum species was performed. The phylogenetic analysis showed the sequences were grouped into the clade of C. gloeosporioides. To confirm the pathogenicity of the fungus, 20 tejocote fruits were surface disinfested by immersion in a 1% sodium hypochlorite solution for 1 min, washed three times with sterile distilled water and dried on sterilized filter paper. Inoculations were performed by deposition of 10 μl of a conidial suspension (106 spores ml-1) on the fruit surface. Ten fruit were mock inoculated with distilled water as a control. All fruits were kept in a moist chamber at 25°C for 10 days. Pathogenicity test was repeated twice. Disease symptoms were observed on all inoculated fruit after 7 days, whereas control fruit did not develop symptoms. Fungal colonies were re-isolated from all symptomatic fruits and were found to be morphologically identical to the original isolate inoculated on tejocote fruits, thus fulfilling Koch´s postulates. In Mexico, García-Alvarez (1976) reported Colletotrichum sp. on fruits of Crataegus mexicana, however, that report was not supported by morphological characterization nor pathogenicity tests. To our knowledge, this is the first report of C. gloeosporioides causing anthracnose of Crataegus gracilior in Mexico and worldwide.Fil: Nieto López, Edgar Humberto. University of Nebraska; Estados UnidosFil: Everhart, Sydney. University of Nebraska; Estados UnidosFil: Ayala Escobar, Victoria. Colegio de Postgraduados; MéxicoFil: Camacho Tapia, Moises. Universidad Autónoma Chapingo; MéxicoFil: Bernardi Lima, Nelson. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Instituto de Patología Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: Nieto Angel, Raúl. Universidad Autónoma Chapingo; MéxicoFil: Tovar Pedraza, Juan Manuel. Universidad Autónoma Chapingo; Méxic