Incidence rates of narcolepsy diagnoses in Taiwan, Canada, and Europe: The use of statistical simulation to evaluate methods for the rapid assessment of potential safety issues on a population level in the SOMNIA study

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Vaccine safety signals require investigation, which may be done rapidly at the population level using ecological studies, before embarking on hypothesis-testing studies. Incidence rates were used to assess a signal of narcolepsy following AS03-adjuvanted monovalent pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza vaccination among children and adolescents in Sweden and Finland in 2010. We explored the utility of ecological data to assess incidence of narcolepsy following exposure to pandemic H1N1 virus or vaccination in 10 sites that used different vaccines, adjuvants, and had varying vaccine coverage.METHODS: We calculated incidence rates of diagnosed narcolepsy for periods defined by influenza virus circulation and vaccination campaign dates, and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the periods during which wild-type virus circulated and after the start of vaccination campaigns vs. the period prior to pH1N1 virus circulation. We used electronic health care data from Sweden, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Canada (3 provinces), Taiwan, Netherlands, and Spain (2 regions) from 2003 to 2013. We investigated interactions between age group and adjuvant in European sites and conducted a simulation study to investigate how vaccine coverage, age, and the interval from onset to diagnosis may impact the ability to detect safety signals.RESULTS: Incidence rates of narcolepsy varied by age, continent, and period. Only in Taiwan and Sweden were significant time-period-by-age-group interactions observed. Associations were found for children in Taiwan (following pH1N1 virus circulation) and Sweden (following vaccination). Simulations showed that the individual-level relative risk of narcolepsy was underestimated using ecological methods comparing post- vs. pre-vaccination periods; this effect was attenuated with higher vaccine coverage and a shorter interval from disease onset to diagnosis.CONCLUSIONS: Ecological methods can be useful for vaccine safety assessment but the results are influenced by diagnostic delay and vaccine coverage. Because ecological methods assess risk at the population level, these methods should be treated as signal-generating methods and drawing conclusions regarding individual-level risk should be avoided

Narcolepsy and adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccines – Multi-country assessment

Background: In 2010, a safety signal was detected for narcolepsy following vaccination with Pandemrix, an AS03-adjuvanted monovalent pandemic H1N1 influenza (pH1N1) vaccine. To further assess a possible association and inform policy on future use of adjuvants, we conducted a multi-country study of narcolepsy and adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines. Methods: We used electronic health databases to conduct a dynamic retrospective cohort study to assess narcolepsy incidence rates (IR) before and during pH1N1 virus circulation, and after pH1N1 vaccination campaigns in Canada, Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Using a case-control study design, we evaluated the risk of narcolepsy following AS03- and MF59-adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines in Argentina, Canada, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the Netherlands. In the Netherlands, we also conducted a case-coverage study in children born between 2004 and 2009. Results: No changes in narcolepsy IRs were observed in any periods in single study sites except Sweden and Taiwan; in Taiwan incidence increased after wild-type pH1N1 virus circulation and in Sweden (a previously identified signaling country), incidence increased after the start of pH1N1 vaccination. No association was observed for Arepanrix-AS03 or Focetria-MF59 adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines and narcolepsy in children or adults in the case-control study nor for children born between 2004 and 2009 in the Netherlands case-coverage study for Pandemrix-AS03. Conclusions: Other than elevated narcolepsy IRs in the period after vaccination campaigns in Sweden, we did not find an association between AS03- or MF59-adjuvanted pH1N1 vaccines and narcolepsy in children or adults in the sites studied, although power to evaluate the AS03-adjuvanted Pandemrix brand vaccine was limited in our study

A Novel Tumor Staging System Incorporating Tumor Regression Grade (TRG) With Lymph Node Status (ypN-Category) Results in Better Prognostication Than ypTNM Stage Groups After Neoadjuvant Therapy for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE: This study aims at constructing a staging system incorporating tumor regression grade and ypN-category (TRG-N) in patients with neoadjuvant therapy before esophagectomy. It is hypothesized that this would prognosticate better than the current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) postneoadjuvant therapy (ypTNM) stage groups. BACKGROUND: Conventional pathological T-category is defined by the depth of invasion, and may lose prognostic relevance after neoadjuvant therapy. TRG defines treatment response by the degree of tumor regression, and when combined with ypN-category may be more prognostic than AJCC postneoadjuvant therapy (ypTNM) stage groups. METHODS: A training cohort of 210 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and who had had neoadjuvant therapy before esophagectomy were studied. A validation cohort comprised 107 patients from another hospital. Resected esophagi were assessed by ypT-category and TRG, the latter assigned according to the Becker 4-tier system. These categories were grouped with ypN-category into a TRG-N system. Patients' survival was compared between the current AJCC postneoadjuvant therapy (ypTNM) stage groups and this TRG-N system. RESULTS: In the training cohort, 5-year survival rates according to ypTNM stage I, II, IIIA, IIIB, and IVA were 53%, 39.4%, 47%, 18.3%, and 0%, respectively. For TRG-N stages I, II, III, and IV, the respective figures were 59.6%, 43.5%, 23.8%, and 15.6%. TRG-N stage showed better fit in survival than ypTNM stage groups, indicated by lower Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion values. Similar results were found in the validation cohort. Multivariate analysis showed that TRG-N stage ( P =0.02), age ( P =0.006), and sex ( P =0.005) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: TRG-N stage shows better prognostication than the AJCC postneoadjuvant therapy (ypTNM) stage groups

Treatment outcomes of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in modern era after intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) in Hong Kong: A report of 3328 patients (HKNPCSG 1301 study)

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Purpose To evaluate treatment outcomes, failure patterns and late toxicities in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated by intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) in 6 public hospitals in Hong Kong over a 10-year period from 2001 to 2010. Material and methods Eligible patients were identified through the Hong Kong Cancer Registry data base. Clinical information was retrieved and verified by oncologists working in the individual centers. Treatment details, survival outcomes and late toxicities were analyzed. Results A total of 3328 patients were recruited. The median follow-up time was 80.2 months. The 8-year actuarial overall survival (OS), local failure-free survival (LFFS), regional failure-free survival (RFFS), distant failure free survival (DFFS), progression-free survival (PFS) for the whole group was 68.5%, 85.8%, 91.5%, 81.5% and 62.6% respectively. Male gender, older age, advanced T and N stage were adverse prognostic factors for OS, DFFS and PFS, whereas use of chemotherapy in form of concurrent chemo-irradiation (CRT), neoadjuvant + CRT, or CRT + adjuvant chemotherapy were favorable prognostic factors for OS and PFS. The local control was adversely affected by advanced T stage. N stage remained as the single adverse prognostic factor for regional control. Distant metastasis was the commonest site of failure. Conclusion IMRT is an effective treatment for NPC with excellent overall loco-regional control. Distant metastasis is the major site of failure. Concurrent chemotherapy with cisplatin has an established role in NPC patients treated by IMRT.Link_to_subscribed_fulltex