Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

YesThis paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather's prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model's input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 "Improvement of operational models'' of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 "Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe'' and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action

Report on TID algorithms

This deliverable presents the TID detection algorithms as improved in response to design principles stated in T2.1 and their testing in the lab environment, verification against measurements taken during quiet and disturbed periods of time, benchmarking for their transition to operations, and final validation to the user requirements of accuracy, timeliness, and coverage.TechTIDE project, funded by the European Commission Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [AD-1], will establish a pre-operational system to demonstrate reliability of a set of TID (Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances) detection methodologies to issue warnings of the occurrence of TIDs over the region extending from Europe to South Africa. TechTIDE warning system will estimate the parameters that specify the TID characteristics and the inferred perturbation, with all additional geophysical information to the users to help them assess the risks and to develop mitigation techniques, tailored to their application. This document is TechTIDE D2.2 “Report on the TID algorithms” and it is an output of TechTIDE Task 2.2 (Development of the TID identification algorithms and products) of the WP2 (TID identification methodologies) which has the final goal to release the basic algorithms for the TID identification and to test a first version of the value-added products for implementation in the TechTIDE warning system. The document highlights four aspects of the TID algorithm release process, (1) Developmentbased on the concept, techniques, and algorithms as stated in TechTIDE D2.1, (2) Verification, an internal testing process that ensures algorithm correctness, (3) Benchmarkingneeded to prepare algorithms to transition to operations, and (4) Validation, an external process of ensuring that developed algorithms are compliant with the stated end user expectations.Postprint (published version

Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather’s prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model’s input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 ‘‘Improvement of operational models’’ of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 ‘‘Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe’’ and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action

Near-Earth space plasma modelling and forecasting

In the frame of the European COST 296 project (Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems, MIERS)in the Working Package 1.3, new ionospheric models, prediction and forecasting methods and programs as well as ionospheric imaging techniques have been developed. They include (i) topside ionosphere and meso-scale irregularity models, (ii) improved forecasting methods for real time forecasting and for prediction of foF2, M(3000)F2, MUF and TECs, including the use of new techniques such as Neurofuzzy, Nearest Neighbour, Cascade Modelling and Genetic Programming and (iii) improved dynamic high latitude ionosphere models through tomographic imaging and model validation. The success of the prediction algorithms and their improvement over existing methods has been demonstrated by comparing predictions with later real data. The collaboration between different European partners (including interchange of data) has played a significant part in the development and validation of these new prediction and forecasting methods, programs and algorithms which can be applied to a variety of practical applications leading to improved mitigation of ionosphereic and space weather effects.Published255-2713.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spazialeJCR Journalope

Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: tools and methods

The paper reviews the work done in the course of the COST 271 Action concerned with the development of tools and methods for forecasting, nowcasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions. Three broad categories of work are covered. First, the maintenance and enhancement of existing operational services that provide forecast or nowcast data products to end users; brief descriptions of RWC Warsaw and the STIF service are given. Second, the development of prototype or experimental services; descriptions are given of a multi-datasource system for reconstruction of electron density profiles, and a new technique using real-time IMF data to forecast ionospheric storms. The third category is the most wide-ranging, and deals with work that has presented new or improved tools or methods that future operational forecasting or nowcasting system will rely on. This work covers two areas - methods for updating models with prompt data, and improvements in modelling or our understanding of various ionospheric-magnetospheric features - and ranges over updating models of ionospheric characteristics and electron density, modelling geomagnetic storms, describing the spatial evolution of the mid-latitude trough, and validating a recently-proposed technique for deriving TEC from ionosonde observations

Near-Earth space plasma modelling and forecasting

In the frame of the European COST 296 project (Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems, MIERS)in the Working Package 1.3, new ionospheric models, prediction and forecasting methods and programs as well as ionospheric imaging techniques have been developed. They include (i) topside ionosphere and meso-scale irregularity models, (ii) improved forecasting methods for real time forecasting and for prediction of foF2, M(3000)F2, MUF and TECs, including the use of new techniques such as Neurofuzzy, Nearest Neighbour, Cascade Modelling and Genetic Programming and (iii) improved dynamic high latitude ionosphere models through tomographic imaging and model validation. The success of the prediction algorithms and their improvement over existing methods has been demonstrated by comparing predictions with later real data. The collaboration between different European partners (including interchange of data) has played a significant part in the development and validation of these new prediction and forecasting methods, programs and algorithms which can be applied to a variety of practical applications leading to improved mitigation of ionosphereic and space weather effects

Thermospheric heating at high latitudes as observed from intercosmos-Bulgaria-1300 and dynamics explorer-B

This paper reports the results of the first direct comparison of near simultaneous measurements obtained by the INTERCOSMOS-BULGARIA-1300 and the DYNAMICS EXPLORER-B satellites. The ICB-1300 is in a near circular orbit at a mean height of about 850 km. The DE-B satellite in an elliptical orbit is sometimes directly below the ICB-1300 satellite providing an opportunity to investigate the response of the thermosphere to particle fluxes from the magnetosphere. Energy fluxes in the range 0.2-15 keV are obtained from an energetic particle analyzer on board the ICB-1300 satellite. The thermospheric composition and density are obtained by a neutral gas mass spectrometer (NACS) on the DE-B satellite. During the period 20 August-20 November, 1981, observations show tht the times and locations of maxima in magnetospheric energy deposition coincide with regions of maximum thermospheric upwelling characterized by composition changes.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25883/1/0000446.pd

Electron density extrapolation above F2 peak by the linear Vary-Chap model supporting new Global Navigation Satellite Systems-LEO occultation missions

The new radio-occultation (RO) instrument on board the future EUMETSAT Polar System-Second Generation (EPS-SG) satellites, flying at a height of 820 km, is primarily focusing on neutral atmospheric profiling. It will also provide an opportunity for RO ionospheric sounding, but only below impact heights of 500 km, in order to guarantee a full data gathering of the neutral part. This will leave a gap of 320 km, which impedes the application of the direct inversion techniques to retrieve the electron density profile. To overcome this challenge, we have looked for new ways (accurate and simple) of extrapolating the electron density (also applicable to other low-Earth orbiting, LEO, missions like CHAMP): a new Vary-Chap Extrapolation Technique (VCET). VCET is based on the scale height behavior, linearly dependent on the altitude above hmF2. This allows extrapolating the electron density profile for impact heights above its peak height (this is the case for EPS-SG), up to the satellite orbital height. VCET has been assessed with more than 3700 complete electron density profiles obtained in four representative scenarios of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) in the United States and the Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (FORMOSAT-3) in Taiwan, in solar maximum and minimum conditions, and geomagnetically disturbed conditions, by applying an updated Improved Abel Transform Inversion technique to dual-frequency GPS measurements. It is shown that VCET performs much better than other classical Chapman models, with 60% of occultations showing relative extrapolation errors below 20%, in contrast with conventional Chapman model extrapolation approaches with 10% or less of the profiles with relative error below 20%.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version