Predictive use of the Maximum Entropy Production principle for Past and Present Climates

In this paper, we show how the MEP hypothesis may be used to build simple climate models without representing explicitly the energy transport by the atmosphere. The purpose is twofold. First, we assess the performance of the MEP hypothesis by comparing a simple model with minimal input data to a complex, state-of-the-art General Circulation Model. Next, we show how to improve the realism of MEP climate models by including climate feedbacks, focusing on the case of the water-vapour feedback. We also discuss the dependence of the entropy production rate and predicted surface temperature on the resolution of the model

How are "teaching the teachers" courses in evidence based medicine evaluated? A systematic review

Background Teaching of evidence-based medicine (EBM) has become widespread in medical education. Teaching the teachers (TTT) courses address the increased teaching demand and the need to improve effectiveness of EBM teaching. We conducted a systematic review of assessment tools for EBM TTT courses. To summarise and appraise existing assessment methods for teaching the teachers courses in EBM by a systematic review. Methods We searched PubMed, BioMed, EmBase, Cochrane and Eric databases without language restrictions and included articles that assessed its participants. Study selection and data extraction were conducted independently by two reviewers. Results Of 1230 potentially relevant studies, five papers met the selection criteria. There were no specific assessment tools for evaluating effectiveness of EBM TTT courses. Some of the material available might be useful in initiating the development of such an assessment tool. Conclusion There is a need for the development of educationally sound assessment tools for teaching the teachers courses in EBM, without which it would be impossible to ascertain if such courses have the desired effect

The convective storm initiation project

Copyright @ 2007 AMSThe Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawin-sondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.This work is funded by the National Environment Research Council following an initial award from the HEFCE Joint Infrastructure Fund

Microbicide excipients can greatly increase susceptibility to genital herpes transmission in the mouse

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several active ingredients proposed as vaginal microbicides have been shown paradoxically to <it>increase </it>susceptibility to infection in mouse genital herpes (HSV-2) vaginal susceptibility models and in clinical trials. In addition, "inactive ingredients" (or excipients) used in topical products to formulate and deliver the active ingredient might also cause epithelial toxicities that increase viral susceptibility. However, excipients have not previously been tested in susceptibility models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Excipients commonly used in topical products were formulated in a non-toxic vehicle (the "HEC universal placebo"), or other formulations as specified. Twelve hours after exposure to the excipient or a control treatment, mice were challenged with a vaginal dose of HSV-2, and three days later were assessed for infection by vaginal lavage culture to assess susceptibility.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The following excipients markedly increased susceptibility to HSV-2 after a single exposure: 5% glycerol monolaurate (GML) formulated in K-Y^®Warming Jelly, 5% GML as a colloidal suspension in phosphate buffered saline, K-Y Warming Jelly alone, and both of its humectant/solvent ingredients (neat propylene glycol and neat PEG-8). For excipients formulated in the HEC vehicle, 30% glycerin significantly increased susceptibility, and a trend toward increased HSV-2 susceptibility was observed after 10% glycerin, and 0.1% disodium EDTA, but not after 0.0186% disodium EDTA. The following excipients did not increase susceptibility: 10% propylene glycol, 0.18%, methylparaben plus 0.02% propylparaben, and 1% benzyl alcohol.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>As reported with other surfactants, the surfactant/emulsifier GML markedly increased susceptibility to HSV-2. Glycerin at 30% significantly increased susceptibility, and, undiluted propylene glycol and PEG-8 greatly increased susceptibility.</p

Phase 3 Trial of 177Lu-Dotatate for Midgut Neuroendocrine Tumors

Background Patients with advanced midgut neuroendocrine tumors who have had disease progression during first-line somatostatin analogue therapy have limited therapeutic options. This randomized, controlled trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of lutetium-177 (177Lu)-Dotatate in patients with advanced, progressive, somatostatin-receptor-positive midgut neuroendocrine tumors. Methods We randomly assigned 229 patients who had well-differentiated, metastatic midgut neuroendocrine tumors to receive either 177Lu-Dotatate (116 patients) at a dose of 7.4 GBq every 8 weeks (four intravenous infusions, plus best supportive care including octreotide long-acting repeatable [LAR] administered intramuscularly at a dose of 30 mg) (177Lu-Dotatate group) or octreotide LAR alone (113 patients) administered intramuscularly at a dose of 60 mg every 4 weeks (control group). The primary end point was progression-free survival. Secondary end points included the objective response rate, overall survival, safety, and the side-effect profile. The final analysis of overall survival will be conducted in the future as specified in the protocol; a prespecified interim analysis of overall survival was conducted and is reported here. Results At the data-cutoff date for the primary analysis, the estimated rate of progression-free survival at month 20 was 65.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 50.0 to 76.8) in the 177Lu-Dotatate group and 10.8% (95% CI, 3.5 to 23.0) in the control group. The response rate was 18% in the 177Lu-Dotatate group versus 3% in the control group (P<0.001). In the planned interim analysis of overall survival, 14 deaths occurred in the 177Lu-Dotatate group and 26 in the control group (P=0.004). Grade 3 or 4 neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and lymphopenia occurred in 1%, 2%, and 9%, respectively, of patients in the 177Lu-Dotatate group as compared with no patients in the control group, with no evidence of renal toxic effects during the observed time frame. Conclusions Treatment with 177Lu-Dotatate resulted in markedly longer progression-free survival and a significantly higher response rate than high-dose octreotide LAR among patients with advanced midgut neuroendocrine tumors. Preliminary evidence of an overall survival benefit was seen in an interim analysis; confirmation will be required in the planned final analysis. Clinically significant myelosuppression occurred in less than 10% of patients in the 177Lu-Dotatate group. (Funded by Advanced Accelerator Applications; NETTER-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01578239 ; EudraCT number 2011-005049-11

Sexually Selected Infanticide in a Polygynous Bat

Background: Adult individuals of many species kill unrelated conspecific infants for several adaptive reasons ranging from predation or resource competition to the prevention of misdirected parental care. Moreover, infanticide can increase the reproductive success of the aggressor by killing the offspring of competitors and thereafter mating with the victimized females. This sexually selected infanticide predominantly occurs in polygynous species, with convincing evidence for primates, carnivores, equids, and rodents. Evidence for bats was predicted but lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we report the first case, to our knowledge, of sexually selected infanticide in a bat, the polygynous white-throated round-eared bat, Lophostoma silvicolum. Behavioral studies in a free-living population revealed that an adult male repeatedly attacked and injured the pups of two females belonging to his harem, ultimately causing the death of one pup. The infanticidal male subsequently mated with the mother of the victimized pup and this copulation occurred earlier than any other in his harem. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings indicate that sexually selected infanticide is more widespread than previously thought, adding bats as a new taxon performing this strategy. Future work on other bats, especially polygynous species in the tropics, has great potential to investigate the selective pressures influencing the evolution of sexually selecte

Links between maternal postpartum depressive symptoms, maternal distress, infant gender and sensitivity in a high-risk population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maternal postpartum depression has an impact on mother-infant interaction. Mothers with depression display less positive affect and sensitivity in interaction with their infants compared to non-depressed mothers. Depressed women also show more signs of distress and difficulties adjusting to their role as mothers than non-depressed women. In addition, depressive mothers are reported to be affectively more negative with their sons than with daughters.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A non-clinical sample of 106 mother-infant dyads at psychosocial risk (poverty, alcohol or drug abuse, lack of social support, teenage mothers and maternal psychic disorder) was investigated with EPDS (maternal postpartum depressive symptoms), the CARE-Index (maternal sensitivity in a dyadic context) and PSI-SF (maternal distress). The baseline data were collected when the babies had reached 19 weeks of age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A hierarchical regression analysis yielded a highly significant relation between the PSI-SF subscale "parental distress" and the EPDS total score, accounting for 55% of the variance in the EPDS. The other variables did not significantly predict the severity of depressive symptoms. A two-way ANOVA with "infant gender" and "maternal postpartum depressive symptoms" showed no interaction effect on maternal sensitivity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Depressive symptoms and maternal sensitivity were not linked. It is likely that we could not find any relation between both variables due to different measuring methods (self-reporting and observation). Maternal distress was strongly related to maternal depressive symptoms, probably due to the generally increased burden in the sample, and contributed to 55% of the variance of postpartum depressive symptoms.</p

Benefits of ICU admission in critically ill patients: Whether instrumental variable methods or propensity scores should be used

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The assessment of the causal effect of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission generally involves usual observational designs and thus requires controlling for confounding variables. Instrumental variable analysis is an econometric technique that allows causal inferences of the effectiveness of some treatments during situations to be made when a randomized trial has not been or cannot be conducted. This technique relies on the existence of one variable or "instrument" that is supposed to achieve similar observations with a different treatment for "arbitrary" reasons, thus inducing substantial variation in the treatment decision with no direct effect on the outcome. The objective of the study was to assess the benefit in terms of hospital mortality of ICU admission in a cohort of patients proposed for ICU admission (ELDICUS cohort).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using this cohort of 8,201 patients triaged for ICU (including 6,752 (82.3%) patients admitted), the benefit of ICU admission was evaluated using 3 different approaches: instrumental variables, standard regression and propensity score matched analyses. We further evaluated the results obtained using different instrumental variable methods that have been proposed for dichotomous outcomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The physician's main specialization was found to be the best instrument. All instrumental variable models adequately reduced baseline imbalances, but failed to show a significant effect of ICU admission on hospital mortality, with confidence intervals far higher than those obtained in standard or propensity-based analyses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Instrumental variable methods offer an appealing alternative to handle the selection bias related to nonrandomized designs, especially when the presence of significant unmeasured confounding is suspected. Applied to the ELDICUS database, this analysis failed to show any significant beneficial effect of ICU admission on hospital mortality. This result could be due to the lack of statistical power of these methods.</p

Dynamical Boson Stars

The idea of stable, localized bundles of energy has strong appeal as a model for particles. In the 1950s John Wheeler envisioned such bundles as smooth configurations of electromagnetic energy that he called {\em geons}, but none were found. Instead, particle-like solutions were found in the late 1960s with the addition of a scalar field, and these were given the name {\em boson stars}. Since then, boson stars find use in a wide variety of models as sources of dark matter, as black hole mimickers, in simple models of binary systems, and as a tool in finding black holes in higher dimensions with only a single killing vector. We discuss important varieties of boson stars, their dynamic properties, and some of their uses, concentrating on recent efforts.Comment: 79 pages, 25 figures, invited review for Living Reviews in Relativity; major revision in 201