Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Solar geoengineering - deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth - has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2 mm day-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels. Key Points Temperature reduction from uniform geoengineering is not uniform Geoengineering cannot offset both temperature and hydrology changes NPP increases mostly due to CO2 fertilization ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.BK is supported by the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research. Simulations performed by BK were supported by the NASA High-End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. AR is supported by US National Science Foundation grant AGS-1157525. JMH and AJ were supported by the joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). KA, DBK, JEK, UN, HS, and MS received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ 2007–2013) under grant agreement 226567-IMPLICC. KA and JEK received support from the Norwegian Research Council’s Programme for Supercomputing (NOTUR) through a grant of computing time. Simulations with the IPSL-CM5 model were supported through HPC resources of [CCT/ TGCC/CINES/IDRIS] under the allocation 2012-t2012012201 made by GENCI (Grand Equipement National de Calcul Intensif). DJ and JCM thank all members of the BNU-ESM model group, as well as the Center of Information and Network Technology at Beijing Normal University for assistance in publishing the GeoMIP data set. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is funded by the National Science Foundation. SW was supported by the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st century, MEXT, Japan. Computer resources for PJR, BS, and JHY were provided by the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231

Subliminal Semantic Priming in Speech

Numerous studies have reported subliminal repetition and semantic priming in the visual modality. We transferred this paradigm to the auditory modality. Prime awareness was manipulated by a reduction of sound intensity level. Uncategorized prime words (according to a post-test) were followed by semantically related, unrelated, or repeated target words (presented without intensity reduction) and participants performed a lexical decision task (LDT). Participants with slower reaction times in the LDT showed semantic priming (faster reaction times for semantically related compared to unrelated targets) and negative repetition priming (slower reaction times for repeated compared to semantically related targets). This is the first report of semantic priming in the auditory modality without conscious categorization of the prime

Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response

Subliminal Semantic Priming in Speech

Numerous studies have reported subliminal repetition and semantic priming in the visual modality. We transferred this paradigm to the auditory modality. Prime awareness was manipulated by a reduction of sound intensity level. Uncategorized prime words (according to a post-test) were followed by semantically related, unrelated, or repeated target words (presented without intensity reduction) and participants performed a lexical decision task (LDT). Participants with slower reaction times in the LDT showed semantic priming (faster reaction times for semantically related compared to unrelated targets) and negative repetition priming (slower reaction times for repeated compared to semantically related targets). This is the first report of semantic priming in the auditory modality without conscious categorization of the prime

Measuring and Comparing Party Ideology and Heterogeneity

Estimates of party ideological positions in Western Democracies yield useful party-level information, but lack the ability to provide insight into intraparty politics. In this paper, we generate comparable measures of latent individual policy positions from elite survey data which enable analysis of elite-level party ideology and heterogeneity. This approach has advantages over both expert surveys and approaches based on behavioral data, such as roll call voting and is directly relevant to the study of party cohesion. We generate a measure of elite positions for several European countries using a common space scaling approach and demonstrate its validity as a measure of party ideology. We then apply these data to determine the sources of party heterogeneity, focusing on the role of intraparty competition in electoral systems, nomination rules, and party goals. We find that policy-seeking parties and centralized party nomination rules reduce party heterogeneity. While intraparty competition has no effect, the presence of these electoral rules conditions the effect of district magnitude

Importance of the mixed-phase cloud distribution in the control climate for assessing the response of clouds to carbon dioxide increase: a multi-model study

We have conducted a multi-model intercomparison of cloud-water in five state-of-the-art AGCMs run for control and doubled carbon dioxide climates. The most notable feature of the differences between the control and doubled carbon dioxide climates is in the distribution of cloud-water in the mixed-phase temperature band. The difference is greatest at mid and high latitudes. We found that the amount of cloud ice in the mixed phase layer in the control climate largely determines how much the cloud-water distribution changes for the doubled carbon dioxide climate. Therefore evaluation of the cloud ice distribution by comparison with data is important for future climate sensitivity studies. Cloud ice and cloud liquid both decrease in the layer below the melting layer, but only cloud liquid increases in the mixed-phase layer. Although the decrease in cloud-water below the melting layer occurs at all latitudes, the increase in cloud liquid in the mixed-phase layer is restricted to those latitudes where there is a large amount of cloud ice in the mixed-phase layer. If the cloud ice in the mixed-phase layer is concentrated at high latitudes, doubling of carbon dioxide might shift the center of cloud water distribution poleward which could decrease solar reflection because solar insolation is less at higher latitude. The magnitude of this poleward shift of cloud water appears to be larger for the higher climate sensitivity models, and it is consistent with the associated changes in cloud albedo forcing. For the control climate there is a clear relationship between the differences in cloud-water and relative humidity between the different models, for both magnitude and distribution. On the other hand the ratio of cloud ice to cloud-water follows the threshold temperature which is determined in each model. Improved measurements of relative humidity could be used to constrain the modeled representation of cloud water. At the same time, comparative analysis in global cloud resolving model simulations is necessary for further understanding of the relationships suggested in this paper.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45864/1/382_2006_Article_127.pd

Simply shapely: relative, not absolute shapes are primed in pop-out search

Visual search is typically faster when the target from the previous trial is repeated than when it changes. This priming effect is commonly attributed to a selection bias for the target feature value or against the nontarget feature value that carries over to the next trial. By contrast, according to a relational account, what is primed in visual search is the target-nontarget relationship-namely, the feature that the target has in relation to the features in the nontarget context (e.g., larger, darker, redder)-and switch costs occur only when the target-nontarget relations reverse across trials. Here, the relational account was tested against current feature-based views in three eye movement experiments that used different shape search tasks (e.g., geometrical figures varying in the number of corners). For all tested shapes, reversing the target-nontarget relationships produced switch costs of the same magnitude as directly switching the target and nontarget features across trials ("full-switch"). In particular, changing only the nontargets produced large switch costs, even when the target feature was always repeated across trials. By contrast, no switch costs were observed when both the target and nontarget features changed, such that the coarse target-nontarget relations remained constant across trials. These results support the relational account over feature-based accounts of priming and indicate that a target's shape can be encoded relative to the shapes in the nontarget context