Forest Vegetation Dynamics Along an Altitudinal Gradient in Relation to the Climate Change in Southern Transbaikalia, Russia

AbstractIn this study, we examined the response forest dynamics (since 1982) on Sokhondo Mountain (2500ma.s.l.) under climate change in Transbaikalia (southeast of Lake Baikal, Russia) over the last 60years, using geobotanical and climate long-term monitoring as important tools to assess the effect of climate change on forest dynamics. We found that changes in ecosystems along an altitudinal gradient indicated that climate had changed in the direction of warming and aridization (drought). This supposition was also confirmed by analyses of regional climate data over the last 60years, which showed an increase in air temperature of 1.8°С and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation of more than 100mm. Forest vegetation along an altitudinal gradient demonstrates various sensitivities to these effects. We found that the most stable forest vegetation types were the cedar–larch forests of the upper forest belt and the cedar subalpine forests. The least stable were the larch forests and pine forests of the lower forest belt

Assessment Of Inundation Area During Flood Drafts From Water Reservoir.

A big amount of towns within the Moscow region are located downstream of the water reservoirs and territories of the towns are covered by water during catastrophic floods. At present in world practice quite successfully are used HEC – RAS technologies for prediction of flooding areas. Accordingly the main aim of the research is assessment of usability HEC – RAS technology in conditions of spring floods for the Moscow region. The aim has required of solving of next problems: 1. 1. Determination of spring flood hydrograph respecting of normative probability. 2. 2. Calculation of drafts from water reservoir through spillway. 3. 3. Research of riverbed characteristics downstream. 4. 4. Modeling of flood routing of drafts from water reservoir downstream. 5. 5. Verification of the model. 6. 6. Assessment of the flooding area downstream. Water reservoir on the river Ruza was chosen by object of research. Calculation of the flood hydrograph was made on the base of long time series of observed data according to normative Russian method. Calculation of drafts from water reservoir through spillway was made according methods of the approximate integration on the base of data about flood hydrograph, morphometric water reservoir characteristics and spillway parameters. Standard program of HEC – RAS technologies was used for modeling of flood routing downstream. The model verified by using observed data. The result gives the possibility to determine the canal morphometric characteristics and the territory covered by water during catastrophic flood

Логистические центры в механизмах материально-технического обеспечения судостроительных кластерных систем

Козырь, Б. Ю. Логистические центры  в механизмах материально-технического обеспечения  судостроительных кластерных систем = Logistics centers in the mechanisms logistical support of shipbuilding cluster system / Б. Ю. Козырь, И. М. Запорожец // Shipbuilding & Marine Infrastructure. – 2016. – № 1–2 (5). – C. 91–96.Abstract. An effective tool for ensuring the competitiveness of the shipbuilding enterprises is the use of the cluster approach. Shipbuilding cluster systems are functionally distributed logistics networks that develop in both national and international framework. The purpose of research is to develop organizational schemes and information models of logistical support of enterprises of the shipbuilding cluster. The scheme of interaction between enterprises, participating in shipbuilding cluster, is suggested in the article. At that, the models and means of logistics management are used. The functions of logistical support are determined for logistics centers, as well as the task of development and maintaining a common information space of the cluster system. The approaches which are suggested in the article are the basis for the organizational and functional synthesis of shipbuilding and ship repair clusters. The logistics center plays a key role in functional integration of enterprises and organizations belonging to the cluster. The range of functions, which are determined for logistics centers, require continuous review and adjustments at various stages of the life cycle of the cluster.Аннотация. Предложены схемы взаимодействия предприятий-участников судостроительного кластера. При этом использованы модели и средства логистического управления. Логистическому центру определены функции материально-технического обеспечения, а также задачи создания и поддержания общего информационного пространства кластерной системы

Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The authors use systematic monitoring across the former USSR to investigate phenological changes across taxa. The long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and biotic interactions.Peer reviewe

Chronicles of nature calendar, a long-term and large-scale multitaxon database on phenology

We present an extensive, large-scale, long-term and multitaxon database on phenological and climatic variation, involving 506,186 observation dates acquired in 471 localities in Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. The data cover the period 1890-2018, with 96% of the data being from 1960 onwards. The database is rich in plants, birds and climatic events, but also includes insects, amphibians, reptiles and fungi. The database includes multiple events per species, such as the onset days of leaf unfolding and leaf fall for plants, and the days for first spring and last autumn occurrences for birds. The data were acquired using standardized methods by permanent staff of national parks and nature reserves (87% of the data) and members of a phenological observation network (13% of the data). The database is valuable for exploring how species respond in their phenology to climate change. Large-scale analyses of spatial variation in phenological response can help to better predict the consequences of species and community responses to climate change.Peer reviewe

Forest Vegetation Dynamics Along an Altitudinal Gradient in Relation to the Climate Change in Southern Transbaikalia, Russia

In this study, we examined the response forest dynamics (since 1982) on Sokhondo Mountain (2500 m a.s.l.) under climate change in Transbaikalia (southeast of Lake Baikal, Russia) over the last 60 years, using geobotanical and climate long-term monitoring as important tools to assess the effect of climate change on forest dynamics. We found that changes in ecosystems along an altitudinal gradient indicated that climate had changed in the direction of warming and aridization (drought). This supposition was also confirmed by analyses of regional climate data over the last 60 years, which showed an increase in air temperature of 1.8 °С and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation of more than 100 mm. Forest vegetation along an altitudinal gradient demonstrates various sensitivities to these effects. We found that the most stable forest vegetation types were the cedar–larch forests of the upper forest belt and the cedar subalpine forests. The least stable were the larch forests and pine forests of the lower forest belt

Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events

For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species' response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues-the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species' response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn