Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions

A multi-hazard, multi-vulnerability impact model has been developed for application to European volcanoes that could significantly damage human settlements. This impact model is based on volcanological analyses of the potential hazards and hazard intensities coupled with engineering analyses of the vulnerability to these hazards of residential buildings in four European locations threatened by explosive volcanic eruptions. For a given case study site, inputs to the model are population data, building characteristics, volcano scenarios as a series of hazard intensities, and scenarios such as the time of eruption or the percentage of the population which has been evacuated. Outputs are the rates of fatalities, seriously injured casualties, and destroyed buildings for a given scenario. These results are displayed in a GIS, thereby presenting risk maps which are easy to use for presenting to public officials, the media, and the public. Technical limitations of the model are discussed and future planned developments are considered. This work contributes to the EU-funded project EXPLORIS (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047). </p><p style='line-height: 20px;'>&nbsp;</p

Cut Points and Diffusions in Random Environment

In this article we investigate the asymptotic behavior of a new class of multi-dimensional diffusions in random environment. We introduce cut times in the spirit of the work done by Bolthausen, Sznitman and Zeitouni, see [4], in the discrete setting providing a decoupling effect in the process. This allows us to take advantage of an ergodic structure to derive a strong law of large numbers with possibly vanishing limiting velocity and a central limit theorem under the quenched measure.Comment: 44 pages; accepted for publication in "Journal of Theoretical Probability

Muons tomography applied to geosciences and volcanology

Imaging the inner part of large geological targets is an important issue in geosciences with various applications. Dif- ferent approaches already exist (e.g. gravimetry, electrical tomography) that give access to a wide range of informations but with identified limitations or drawbacks (e.g. intrinsic ambiguity of the inverse problem, time consuming deployment of sensors over large distances). Here we present an alternative and complementary tomography method based on the measurement of the cosmic muons flux attenuation through the geological structures. We detail the basics of this muon tomography with a special emphasis on the photo-active detectors.Comment: Invited talk at the 6th conference on New Developments In Photodetection (NDIP'11), Lyon-France, July 4-8, 2011; Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A, 201

Corrections to Einstein's relation for Brownian motion in a tilted periodic potential

In this paper we revisit the problem of Brownian motion in a tilted periodic potential. We use homogenization theory to derive general formulas for the effective velocity and the effective diffusion tensor that are valid for arbitrary tilts. Furthermore, we obtain power series expansions for the velocity and the diffusion coefficient as functions of the external forcing. Thus, we provide systematic corrections to Einstein's formula and to linear response theory. Our theoretical results are supported by extensive numerical simulations. For our numerical experiments we use a novel spectral numerical method that leads to a very efficient and accurate calculation of the effective velocity and the effective diffusion tensor.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures, submitted to the Journal of Statistical Physic

Aluminum-, Calcium- And Titanium-Rich Oxide Stardust In Ordinary Chondrite Meteorites

We report isotopic data for a total of 96 presolar oxide grains found in residues of several unequilibrated ordinary chondrite meteorites. Identified grain types include Al2O3, MgAl2O4, hibonite (CaAl12O19) and Ti oxide. This work greatly increases the presolar hibonite database, and is the first report of presolar Ti oxide. O-isotopic compositions of the grains span previously observed ranges and indicate an origin in red giant and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars of low mass (<2.5 MSun) for most grains. Cool bottom processing in the parent AGB stars is required to explain isotopic compositions of many grains. Potassium-41 enrichments in hibonite grains are attributable to in situ decay of now-extinct 41Ca. Inferred initial 41Ca/40Ca ratios are in good agreement with model predictions for low-mass AGB star envelopes, provided that ionization suppresses 41Ca decay. Stable Mg and Ca isotopic ratios of most of the hibonite grains reflect primarily the initial compositions of the parent stars and are generally consistent with expectations for Galactic chemical evolution, but require some local interstellar chemical inhomogeneity. Very high 17O/16O or 25Mg/24Mg ratios suggest an origin for some grains in binary star systems where mass transfer from an evolved companion has altered the parent star compositions. A supernova origin for the hitherto enigmatic 18O-rich Group 4 grains is strongly supported by multi-element isotopic data for two grains. The Group 4 data are consistent with an origin in a single supernova in which variable amounts of material from the deep 16O-rich interior mixed with a unique end-member mixture of the outer layers. The Ti oxide grains primarily formed in low-mass AGB stars. They are smaller and rarer than presolar Al2O3, reflecting the lower abundance of Ti than Al in AGB envelopes.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ; 47 pages, 13 figure

The amino acid and hydrocarbon contents of the Paris meteorite: Insights into the most primitive CM chondrite

International audienc

A Brownian particle in a microscopic periodic potential

We study a model for a massive test particle in a microscopic periodic potential and interacting with a reservoir of light particles. In the regime considered, the fluctuations in the test particle's momentum resulting from collisions typically outweigh the shifts in momentum generated by the periodic force, and so the force is effectively a perturbative contribution. The mathematical starting point is an idealized reduced dynamics for the test particle given by a linear Boltzmann equation. In the limit that the mass ratio of a single reservoir particle to the test particle tends to zero, we show that there is convergence to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under the standard normalizations for the test particle variables. Our analysis is primarily directed towards bounding the perturbative effect of the periodic potential on the particle's momentum.Comment: 60 pages. We reorganized the article and made a few simplifications of the conten

Bayesian inference of biochemical kinetic parameters using the linear noise approximation

Background Fluorescent and luminescent gene reporters allow us to dynamically quantify changes in molecular species concentration over time on the single cell level. The mathematical modeling of their interaction through multivariate dynamical models requires the deveopment of effective statistical methods to calibrate such models against available data. Given the prevalence of stochasticity and noise in biochemical systems inference for stochastic models is of special interest. In this paper we present a simple and computationally efficient algorithm for the estimation of biochemical kinetic parameters from gene reporter data. Results We use the linear noise approximation to model biochemical reactions through a stochastic dynamic model which essentially approximates a diffusion model by an ordinary differential equation model with an appropriately defined noise process. An explicit formula for the likelihood function can be derived allowing for computationally efficient parameter estimation. The proposed algorithm is embedded in a Bayesian framework and inference is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Conclusion The major advantage of the method is that in contrast to the more established diffusion approximation based methods the computationally costly methods of data augmentation are not necessary. Our approach also allows for unobserved variables and measurement error. The application of the method to both simulated and experimental data shows that the proposed methodology provides a useful alternative to diffusion approximation based methods

Autonomous clustering using rough set theory

This paper proposes a clustering technique that minimises the need for subjective human intervention and is based on elements of rough set theory. The proposed algorithm is unified in its approach to clustering and makes use of both local and global data properties to obtain clustering solutions. It handles single-type and mixed attribute data sets with ease and results from three data sets of single and mixed attribute types are used to illustrate the technique and establish its efficiency

Early intensive physical rehabilitation combined with a protocolized decannulation process in tracheostomized survivors from severe COVID-19 pneumonia with chronic critical illness

(1) Background: Intensive care unit (ICU) survivors from severe COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome (CARDS) with chronic critical illness (CCI) may be considered vast resource consumers with a poor prognosis. We hypothesized that a holistic approach combining an early intensive rehabilitation with a protocol of difficult weaning would improve patient outcomes (2) Methods: A single-center retrospective study in a five-bed post-ICU weaning and intensive rehabilitation center with a dedicated fitness room specifically equipped to safely deliver physical activity sessions in frail patients with CCI. (3) Results: Among 502 CARDS patients admitted to the ICU from March 2020 to March 2022, 50 consecutive tracheostomized patients were included in the program. After a median of 39 ICU days, 25 days of rehabilitation were needed to restore patients’ autonomy (ADL, from 0 to 6; p < 0.001), to significantly improve their aerobic capacity (6-min walking test distance, from 0 to 253 m; p < 0.001) and to reduce patients’ vulnerability (frailty score, from 7 to 3; p < 0.001) and hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS, from 18 to 10; p < 0.001). Forty-eight decannulated patients (96%) were discharged home. (4) Conclusions: A protocolized weaning strategy combined with early intensive rehabilitation in a dedicated specialized center boosted the physical and mental recovery