Dismal Science Meets Dismal Subject: The (Mal)practice of Nuclear Power Economics

Electric utilities, reactor designers and builders, and the federal government have badly underestimated the costs of new nuclear power plants over the past fifteen years. Although not all of the increases were readily predictable, particularly those caused by rapid general inflation, nuclear advocates failed to foresee most of the sixfold growth in real costs resulting from new reactors\u27 greater complexity, scope, and regulatory surveillance. This review recounts the methods used by nuclear power proponents to convince policymakers, the public, and themselves that new nuclear plants would be competitive with other energy sources, long after conclusive contrary evidence was available. It shows that the technique of engineering estimation relied upon by government and industry officials was singularly unsuited to predicting costs for an immature technology subject to changing regulation and overseen by mediocre management. Industry conventions against expressing costs in real terms (constant dollars) further disguised the extent of cost escalation and impeded the application of empirical data in predicting future costs. Rigorous statistical examinations showing reactor cost growth far outstripping both overall inflation and coal-fired electricity costs were performed by outside analysts only. Failure to heed such findings has contributed to billions of dollars of excess investment in new nuclear projects, like Seabrook, being built by fifteen New England utilities. The article concludes with suggestions for improving future estimation of nuclear power costs, and an appeal for institutionalizing countervailing economic assessments of large capital investment projects

Positioning nuclear power in the low-carbon electricity transition

Addressing climate change requires de-carbonizing future energy supplies in the increasingly energy dependent world. The IEA and the IPCC (2014) mention the following as low-carbon energy supply options: ‘renewable energy, nuclear power and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage’. Positioning nuclear power in the decarbonization transition is a problematic issue and is overridden by ill-conceived axioms. Before probing the axioms, we provide an overview of five major, postwar energy-related legacies and some insight in who is engaged in nuclear activities. We check whether low-carbon nuclear power passes the full sustainability test and whether it is compatible with the unfettered deployment of variable renewable power sourced from the sun and from wind and water currents, delivers two negative answers. We show that the best approach of the sustainable energy transition was Germany’s 2011 decision to phase-out nuclear power for a fast development and full deployment of renewable power. This is the best approach of the sustainable energy transition. We offer five practical suggestions to strengthen and accelerate carbon and nuclear free transitions. They are related to institutional issues like the role of cost-benefit analysis and the mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to the costs of nuclear risks and catastrophes, and to the historical record of nuclear technology and business

Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK

A wide range of evidence supports policies which encourage people to cycle more and drive less, for health and environmental reasons. However, the likely energy implications of such a modal shift have remained relatively unexplored. In this paper we generate scenarios for increasing the cycling rate in Sheffield between 2010 and 2020. This is done through the novel application of a simple model, borrowed from population ecology. The analysis suggests that pro-cycling interventions result in energy savings through reduced consumption of fuel and cars, and energy costs through increased demand for food. The cumulative impact is a net reduction in primary energy consumption, the magnitude of which depends on a number of variables which are subject to uncertainty. Based on the evidence presented and analysed in this paper, we conclude that transport policy has a number of important energy implications, some of which remain unexplored. We therefore advocate the formation of closer links between energy policy and transport policy in academia and in practice; our approach provides a simple yet flexible framework for pursuing this aim in the context of modal shift

Melodic embellishment in Mozart

This dissertation presents a general account of embellishment in Mozart’s oeuvre. Chapter 1 lays the theoretical groundwork, distinguishing embellishment from the related techniques of variation, diminution, and structural elaboration. It also examines the various epistemological barriers involved in studying centuries-old improvisations, and situates the project within the culture of historical performance. Chapter 2 examines the relationship between Mozart’s compositional process and his piano technique, arguing that studies of his notated works can, if handled judiciously, shed light on his performing practices. Building upon this unification, Chapter 3 focuses the methods by which embellishment gestures can be discerned in Mozart’s notated works. Chapter 4 examines Mozart’s embellishment protocols, from local gestures such as trills and turns, to large-scale pacing, relating these procedures to broader issues including instrumental technique, operatic characterisation, and the compositional process. Chapter 5 compares Mozart’s embellishments with those by his contemporaries (Vogler, Haydn), students (Ployer, Hummel), and successors (Beethoven). Finally, Chapter 6 considers the role of embellishment in Mozart’s musical aesthetic as a whole. It argues that embellishment provides a lens through which to re-evaluate not only Mozart’s works, but the evolution of musical style, the relationship between analysis and performance, and the role of explanation in musical interpretation