Can a One-Item Mood Scale Do the Trick? Predicting Relapse over 5.5-Years in Recurrent Depression

To examine whether a simple Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS) is able to predict time to relapse over 5.5-years.187 remitted recurrently depressed out-patients were interviewed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID-I) and the 17-item Hamilton Depression rating scale (HAM-D) to verify remission status (HAM-D <10). All patients rated their current mood with the help of a Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS) at baseline and at a follow-up assessment three months later. Relapse over 5.5-years was assessed by the SCID-I. Cox regression revealed that both the VAMS at baseline and three months later significantly predicted time to relapse over 5.5-years. Baseline VAMS even predicted time to relapse when the number of previous depressive episodes and HAM-D scores were controlled for. The baseline VAMS explained 6.3% of variance in time to relapse, comparable to the HAM-D interview.Sad mood after remission appears to play a pivotal role in the course of depression. Since a simple VAMS predicted time to relapse, the VAMS might be an easy and time-effective way to monitor mood and risk of early relapse, and offers possibilities for daily monitoring using e-mail and SMS.International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Register Identifier: ISRCTN68246470

SME Financing in Europe: Cross-Country Determinants of Debt Maturity

We examine the influence of cross country differences on debt maturity for small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) using a sample of 3366 SMEs from 19 European countries. We analyze a country's legal environment, institutional environment, banking structure and economic situation while controlling for firm specific characteristic. We find that SMEs in countries with high property rights that protect their creditors or enforce existing laws are more likely to obtain long-term debt. We also show evidence that banks seem to rely more on the legal, economic, and institutional determinants when determining the length of a loan agreement for micro firms than when granting loans to medium size firms

Baseline predictors of treatment outcome in Internet-based alcohol interventions: a recursive partitioning analysis alongside a randomized trial

BACKGROUND: Internet-based interventions are seen as attractive for harmful users of alcohol and lead to desirable clinical outcomes. Some participants will however not achieve the desired results. In this study, harmful users of alcohol have been partitioned in subgroups with low, intermediate or high probability of positive treatment outcome, using recursive partitioning classification tree analysis. METHODS: Data were obtained from a randomized controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of two Internet-based alcohol interventions. The main outcome variable was treatment response, a dichotomous outcome measure for treatment success. Candidate predictors for the classification analysis were first selected using univariate regression. Next, a tree decision model to classify participants in categories with a low, medium and high probability of treatment response was constructed using recursive partitioning software. RESULTS: Based on literature review, 46 potentially relevant baseline predictors were identified. Five variables were selected using univariate regression as candidate predictors for the classification analysis. Two variables were found most relevant for classification and selected for the decision tree model: ‘living alone’, and ‘interpersonal sensitivity’. Using sensitivity analysis, the robustness of the decision tree model was supported. CONCLUSIONS: Harmful alcohol users in a shared living situation, with high interpersonal sensitivity, have a significantly higher probability of positive treatment outcome. The resulting decision tree model may be used as part of a decision support system but is on its own insufficient as a screening algorithm with satisfactory clinical utility. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register (Cochrane Collaboration): NTR-TC1155

Interaction between the MTHFR C677T polymorphism and traumatic childhood events predicts depression

Childhood trauma is associated with the onset and recurrence of major depressive disorder (MDD). The thermolabile T variant of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism (rs1801133) is associated with a limited (oxidative) stress defense. Therefore, C677T MTHFR could be a potential predictor for depressive symptomatology and MDD recurrence in the context of traumatic stress during early life. We investigated the interaction between the C677T MTHFR variant and exposure to traumatic childhood events (TCEs) on MDD recurrence during a 5.5-year follow-up in a discovery sample of 124 patients with recurrent MDD and, in an independent replication sample, on depressive syniptomatology in 665 healthy individuals from the general population. In the discovery sample, Cox regression analysis revealed a significant interaction between MTHFR genotype and TCEs on MOD recurrence (P = 0.017). Over the 5.5-year follow-up period, median time to recurrence was 191 days for T-allele carrying patients who experienced TCEs (T + and TCE +); 461 days for T - and TCE + patients; 773 days for T + and TCE - patients and 866 days for T - and TCE - patients. In the replication sample, a significant interaction was present between the MTHFR genotype and TCEs on depressive symptomatology (P = 0.002). Our results show that the effects of TCEs on the prospectively assessed recurrence of MOD and self-reported depressive symptoms in the general population depend on the MTHFR genotype. In conclusion, T-allele carriers may be at an increased risk for depressive symptoms or MOD recurrence after exposure to childhood trauma

Ala54Thr Fatty Acid-Binding Protein 2 (FABP2) Polymorphism in Recurrent Depression: Associations with Fatty Acid Concentrations and Waist Circumference

BACKGROUND: Fatty acid (FA)-alterations may mediate the mutual association between Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, etiology of observed FA-alterations in MDD and CVD remains largely unclear. An interesting candidate may be a mutation in the fatty acid-binding protein 2 (FABP2)-gene, because it regulates dietary FA-uptake. Therefore, we aimed to test the hypotheses that in MDD-patients the FABP2 Ala54Thr-polymorphism would be (I) more prevalent than in sex- and age-matched controls, (II) associated with observed alterations in FA-metabolism, and (III) associated with CVD-risk factor waist circumference. METHODS: We measured concentrations of 29 different erythrocyte FAs, FABP2-genotype, and waist circumference in recurrent MDD-patients and matched never-depressed controls. RESULTS: FABP2-genotype distribution did not significantly differ between the 137 MDD-patients and 73 matched controls. However, patients with the Ala54Thr-polymorphism had (I) higher concentrations of especially eicosadienoic acid (C20:2ω6; P=.009) and other 20-carbon FAs, and associated (II) lower waist circumference (P=.019). In addition, FABP2-genotype effects on waist circumference in patients seemed (I) mediated by its effect on C20:2ω6, and (II) different from controls. CONCLUSIONS: Although Ala54Thr-polymorphism distribution was not associated with recurrent MDD, our results indicate that FABP2 may play a role in the explanation of observed FA-alterations in MDD. For Ala54Thr-polymorphism patients, potentially adaptive conversion of increased bioavailable dietary precursors into eicosadienoic acid instead of arachidonic acid might be related to a low waist circumference. Because this is the first investigation of these associations, replication is warranted, preferably by nutrigenetic studies applying lipidomics and detailed dietary assessment

Valuation Errors at the Time of Security Issuance and the Market Timing Theory of Capital Structure Valuation Errors in Equity and the Motives for Issuing Convertible Debt

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