Detection and attribution studies of climate related changes in the Baltic Sea since 1850

This thesis follows the approach of detection and attribution in order to find out how the Baltic Sea and its ecosystem have changed since the first systematic observations started around 1850 and what caused these changes. Therefore, model results as well as various observational data sets were analysed in order to analyse changes in the water temperature, the sea surface salinity and the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea.Diese Arbeit folgt der Methode "Detection and Attribution" (deutsch: Erkennung und Zuordung). Das Ziel ist es hier herauszufinden, wie sich die Ostsee und ihr Ökosystem seit Beginn der ersten systematischen Beobachtungen um 1850 verändert haben und was diese Veränderungen verursacht hat. Dazu wurden sowohl Modellergebnisse als auch Beobachtungsdaten verwendet und Veränderungen in der Wassertemperatur, des Oberflächensalzgehaltes und der Biogeochemie der Ostsee ausgewertet

Assessment of eutrophication abatement scenarios for the Baltic Sea by multi-model ensemble simulations

Peer reviewe

Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea

Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.Peer reviewe

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.Peer reviewe

Ventilation of the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed, brackish water sea in northern Europe. The deep basins of the central Baltic Sea regularly show hypoxic conditions. In contrast, the northern parts of the Baltic Sea, the Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay, are well oxygenated. Lateral inflows or a ventilation due to convection are possible mechanisms for high oxygen concentrations in the deep water of the northern Baltic Sea. In March 2017, conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) profiles and bottle samples, ice core samples, and brine were collected in the Bothnian Bay. In addition to hydrographic standard parameters, light absorption has been measured in all samples. A complementary numerical model simulation provides quantitative estimates of the spread of newly formed bottom water. The model uses passive and age tracers to identify and trace different water masses. Observations indicate a recent ventilation of the deep bottom water at one of the observed stations. The analysis of observations and model simulations shows that the Bothnian Bay is ventilated by dense water formed due to mixing of Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay surface water initializing lateral inflows. The observations show the beginning of the inflow and the model simulation demonstrates the further northward spreading of bottom water. These events occur during wintertime when the water temperature is low. Brine rejected during ice formation barely contributes to dense bottom water

Changing Salinity Gradients in the Baltic Sea As a Consequence of Altered Freshwater Budgets

Climate change is expected to enhance the hydrological cycle in northern latitudes reducing the salinity in the Baltic Sea, a land-locked marginal sea with a large catchment area located in northern Europe. With the help of ocean simulations forced by historical atmospheric and hydrological reconstructions and local observations, we analyzed long-term changes in the sea surface salinity of the Baltic Sea as well as its latitudinal gradient. The variability of both is dominated by multidecadal oscillations with a period of about 30 years, while both atmospheric variables, wind and river runoff, contribute to this variability. Centennial changes show a statistically significant positive trend in the North-South gradient of sea surface salinity for 1900–2008. This change is mainly attributed to increased river runoff from the northernmost catchment indicating a footprint of the anthropogenic impact on salinity with consequences for the marine ecosystem and species distributions