Dynamic Bayesian belief network to model the development of walking and cycling schemes

This paper aims to describe a model which represents the formulation of decision-making processes (over a number of years) affecting the step-changes of walking and cycling (WaC) schemes. These processes can be seen as being driven by a number of causal factors, many of which are associated with the attitudes of a variety of factors, in terms of both determining whether any scheme will be implemented and, if it is implemented, the extent to which it is used. The outputs of the model are pathways as to how the future might unfold (in terms of a number of future time steps) with respect to specific pedestrian and cyclist schemes. The transitions of the decision making processes are formulated using a qualitative simulation method, which describes the step-changes of the WaC scheme development. In this article a Bayesian belief network (BBN) theory is extended to model the influence between and within factors in the dynamic decision making process

General and specified vulnerability to extreme temperatures among older adults

Extreme temperatures pose significant risks to human health and well-being. Older adults are particularly at risk and their susceptibility is a function of vulnerability to general daily life circumstances and to specified events or threats. For the first time, this paper develops a combined general and specified approach to understand the determinants of vulnerability. The findings show that most participants exhibit high levels of heat-related vulnerability, followed by cold-related vulnerability and lastly, general vulnerability. General vulnerability was shown to be primarily shaped by financial, physical and social assets. Whilst, specified vulnerability was found to be mainly shaped by human, physical and placed based assets. Such findings present opportunities to focus on the types of assets that contribute to reducing vulnerability. These findings also suggest that the role assets play in shaping vulnerability must be attended to if we are to fully understand and effectively implement strategies to reduce vulnerability

La incuestionabilidad del riesgo

Con anterioridad a la década de 1980, la literatura especializada en análisis y gestión del riesgo estaba dominada por la llamada visión tecnocrática o dominante. Esta visión establecía que los desastres naturales eran sucesos físicos extremos, producidos por una naturaleza caprichosa, externos a lo social y que requerían soluciones tecnológicas y de gestión por parte de expertos. Este artículo se centra en desarrollar una nueva explicación para entender la persistencia hegemónica de la visión tecnocrática basada en el concepto de incuestionabilidad del riesgo. Esta propuesta conceptual hace referencia a la incapacidad y desidia de los expertos, científicos y tomadores de decisiones en general (claimmakers) de identificar y actuar sobre las causas profundas de la producción del riesgo ya que ello conllevaría a cuestionar los imperativos normativos, las necesidades de las elites y los estilos de vida del actual sistema socioeconómico globalizado.Before de 1980s, the natural hazard analysis and management specialized literature was dominated by the so called "dominant" or "technocratic" view. Such perspective had established that natural disasters are extreme physical events caused by a whimsical nature and that these events are external to society. These events required technological and management solutions developed by experts. The current article aims at addressing a new explanatory component in the hegemonic persistence of the technocratic view. Such assumption was based on the "unquestionability of the risk" concept. It is stated that the "unquestionability of the risk" is the overall incapacity and neglect of experts, scientists and decision makers to identify and act over the deep causes of risk production, since it would make them question the normative imperatives and the demands from the elite as well as the life style in nowadays globalized socio-economic system

Going Solo: findings from a survey of women ageing without a partner and who do not have children

Greater longevity in the UK population has led to the increasing diversity of women experiencing ageing in a multitude of ways. Internationally gender inequalities within ageing are still relatively invisible within both government policy and everyday life for particular groups of women. This paper explores the concept of women growing older ‘solo’ by which we mean women who find themselves non partnered and ageing without children as they move into later life. We report on the findings from a mixed-methods survey of 76 solo women in the UK aged 50 years and over, used to provide a broader overview of the issues and challenges they face as they move into later life. Qualitative data from the survey captured respondents’ perspectives about the links between their relationships status and wellbeing in later life and highlighted specific cumulative disadvantages emerging for some women as a result of their solo lifestyles. We discuss two key themes were identified; ‘solo-loneliness’ and ‘meaningful futures’ in conjunction with the relevant literature and make suggestions for future research within gender and ageing studies that could enhance more positive approaches to solo lifestyles

On biocoloniality and 'respectability' in contemporary London.

This essay is framed by discussions on the civil unrest in British cities in 2011, the politics of austerity, the mass unemployment of the young, ‘the war on terror’ and ‘radicalisation’ and the vulnerability of the poor and ‘unrespectable’. It advances a concept of biocoloniality and explores ‘respectability’, class and transnational postcolonial urban cultures in contemporary London. The essay argues for a theorisation which can account for how a divided subject produces the effect of an undivided and self-governing ‘core self’ who ‘possesses’ distinguishing ‘biological’ ‘capacities’, ‘psychological’ attributes’ and cultural ‘characteristics’. It considers how this is accomplished through our daily practical activity such as our ‘imaginable’, ‘possible’ sexual desires, everyday practices of reflection, our bodily demeanour and bodily significations. This concept of biocoloniality is composed of two theoretical strands. In ‘on inscription and creolisation’ and in dialogue with a single respondent on ‘respectability’ and ‘beauty’, I entwine disparate theoretical threads from work on biopolitics and governmentality, racialisation, psychoanalysis and postcoloniality and performativity, sexualisation and intersectionality together. I forward a formulation of inscription that can reveal how we inscribe and sculpt our own and other bodies with different ‘capacities’ and ‘qualities’. I then tie strands of work on repetition together and advance a theorisation of reiteration. I consider how we struggle with, overcome and are defeated by ourselves as we reinscribe our own and other bodies. The essay thus considers how it is through in part our daily biocolonial practice that different bodies that are closer to and more distant from notions of the human, the un/respectable, un/desirable, ab/normal, ir/replaceable and expendable come into being and how this unsettles clear distinctions between coloniality and postcoloniality

Re-thinking residential mobility: Linking lives through time and space.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from SAGE via http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309132515575417While researchers are increasingly re-conceptualizing international migration, far less attention has been devoted to re-thinking short-distance residential mobility and immobility. In this paper we harness the life course approach to propose a new conceptual framework for residential mobility research. We contend that residential mobility and immobility should be re-conceptualized as relational practices that link lives through time and space while connecting people to structural conditions. Re-thinking and re-assessing residential mobility by exploiting new developments in longitudinal analysis will allow geographers to understand, critique and address pressing societal challenges.Rory Coulter’s work on this paper was partly supported by an Economic and Social Research Council grant [ES/L009498/1]. Maarten van Ham’s contribution was supported by funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007–2013) / ERC Grant Agreement n. 615159 (ERC Consolidator Grant DEPRIVEDHOODS, Socio-spatial inequality, deprived neighbourhoods, and neighbourhood effects); and from the Marie Curie programme under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007–2013) / Career Integration Grant no. PCIG10-GA-2011-303728 (CIG Grant NBHCHOICE, Neighbourhood choice, neighbourhood sorting, and neighbourhood effects). Allan Findlay’s work was supported by an Economic and Social Research Council grant [ES/K007394/1]

Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas

This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation.We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation