Fine particle emissions, emission reduction potential and reduction costs in Finland in 2020

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the atmosphere have been associated with severe human health effects. This report explores future emissions of primary PM2.5, their reduction potential and related reduction costs in Finland. One activity pathway of 2020 of the Finnish Climate Strategy was studied with two different PM emission control utilization scenarios: (1) "Baseline" which involves PM control technology utilization complying with current legislation, and (2) "Reduction" which assumes the use of maximum technically and economically feasible emission reduction measures. The studied sectors included stationary combustion and industrial activities. The work was performed using the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) model of Finnish environment institute (SYKE). Total emission reduction potential below "Baseline" was estimated at 6.7 Gg(PM2.5) a-1, or 22% of the total emissions. The biggest relatively cost-efficient reductions (marginal cost below 5000 € Mg-1) can be achieved by the use of small electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) in domestic wood log boilers, 2.0 Gg a-1. In large-scale combustion installations in power plants and industry the reduction of 1.2 Gg a-1 is possible by fabric filter installations instead of ESPs. A comparable reduction with slightly higher costs can be achieved in small (below 5 MWth) industrial boilers by the introduction of ESPs. For industrial processes potential occurs in few individual plants. The uncertainties in emission reduction and cost estimates are biggest for domestic combustion and industrial processes. This report presents cost-efficiency estimates of future emission reductions per mass of PM2.5 reduced. However, the magnitude of health benefits gained from emission reductions are different for different emission sources, depending on e.g. the altitude of emission release, the emission location in relation to the location of population etc. The results of this study are used in the integrated assessment modeling framework developed in the KOPRA project in order to link the information of emission reductions and costs, atmospheric dispersion and induced health impacts

Household Cooking with Solid Fuels Contributes to Ambient PM2.5 Air Pollution and the Burden of Disease

Approximately 2.8 billion people cook with solid fuels, and research has focused on the health impacts of household exposures to fine particulate (PM2.5). Here, as part of the 2010 Global Burden of Disease project, we evaluate the impact of household cooking with solid fuels on regional ambient PM2.5 pollution. We estimated the proportion of ambient PM2.5 (APM2.5) from PM2.5-cooking for the years 1990, 2005, and 2010 in 176 countries, and use these to estimate ambient concentrations of PM2.5 attributable to household cooking with solid fuels (PM2.5-cooking). We used an energy supply-driven emissions model (GAINS) to calculate the fraction of total household PM2.5 emissions produced by cooking with solid fuels, by country. These findings were multiplied by the proportion of total APM2.5 attributable to household emissions, as calculated with the source-receptor model TM5-FASST, to obtain the proportion of total APM2.5 from PM2.5-cooking. In 2010, the proportion of APM2.5 from PM2.5-cooking ranged from 0% of total APM2.5 in six higher-income regions, to 44% (8 µg/m3 of 18 µg/m3 16 total) in Southern sub-Saharan Africa. PM2.5-cooking constituted >10% of APM2.5 in eight regions with 4 billion people, with a global mean of 14%. Globally, the mean population-weighted outdoor air pollution contribution of household cooking was 4 µg/m3 , with the highest contribution of 10 µg/m3 in South Asia. We conclude that PM2.5 emissions from household cooking constitute an important portion of APM2.5 concentrations in many regions, including India and China. Efforts to improve ambient air quality will be hindered if household cooking conditions are not addressed.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat

The effects of climate change and abatement policies on the value of natural resources in Northern Europe and in the Arctic Sea area

The impact of the climate on the Arctic plays a crucial role for Finland’s, as well as other Nordic countries’ current and future climatic conditions. Far-reaching and multi-faceted changes are taking place in the Arctic, which have profound consequences for the region’s economic and political significance in international relations. The review analyses the effects of climate change and likely climate abatement policies on the accessibility and value of natural resources in Northern Europe in the Arctic Sea area and on the logistical position of Northern Europe with a special emphasis on Finland

Rapid reduction in black carbon emissions from China: evidence from 2009–2019 observations on Fukue Island, Japan

A long-term, robust observational record of atmospheric black carbon (BC) concentrations at Fukue Island for 2009–2019 was produced by unifying the data from a continuous soot monitoring system (COSMOS) and a Multi-Angle Absorption Photometer (MAAP). This record was then used to analyze emission trends from China. We identified a rapid reduction in BC concentrations of (−5.8±1.5) % yr−1 or −48 % from 2010 to 2018. We concluded that an emission change of (−5.3±0.7) % yr−1, related to changes in China of as much as −4.6 % yr−1, was the main underlying driver. This evaluation was made after correcting for the interannual meteorological variability (IAV) by using the regional atmospheric chemistry model simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models (collectively WRF/CMAQ) with the constant emissions. This resolves the current fundamental disagreements about the sign of the BC emissions trend from China over the past decade as assessed from bottom-up emission inventories. Our analysis supports inventories reflecting the governmental clean air actions after 2010 (e.g., MEIC1.3, ECLIPSE versions 5a and 6b, and the Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 3.1) and recommends revisions to those that do not (e.g., Community Emissions Data System – CEDS). Our estimated emission trends were fairly uniform across seasons but diverse among air mass origins. Stronger BC reductions, accompanied by a reduction in carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, occurred in regions of south-central East China, while weaker BC reductions occurred in north-central East China and northeastern China. Prior to 2017, the BC and CO emissions trends were both unexpectedly positive in northeastern China during winter months, which possibly influenced the climate at higher latitudes. The pace of the estimated emissions reduction over China surpasses the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs with reference to SSP1, specifically) scenarios for 2015–2030, which suggests highly successful emission control policies. At Fukue Island, the BC fraction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) also steadily decreased over the last decade. This suggests that reductions in BC emissions started without significant delay when compared to other pollutants such as NOx and SO2, which are among the key precursors of scattering PM2.5

Residential heating with wood and coal: health impacts and policy options in Europe and North America

Residential heating with wood and coal is an important source of ambient (outdoor) air pollution; it can also cause substantial indoor air pollution through either direct exposure or infiltration from outside. Evidence links emissions from wood and coal heating to serious health effects such as illness and death from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Burning wood and coal also emits carcinogenic compounds. The report describes the health effects of and policy options for dealing with residential heating with wood and coal in Europe and the United States. The results presented indicate that it will be difficult to tackle problems with outdoor air pollution in many parts of the world without addressing this source sector. National, regional and local administrations, politicians and the public at large need a better understanding of the role of wood biomass heating as a major source of harmful outdoor air pollutants (especially fine particles). This report is intended to help increase such an understanding

Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening emission regulations. However, there are significant uncertainties in these current emission estimates and the key actions for decreasing the uncertainties are pointed out.Peer reviewe

Role of export industries on ozone pollution and its precursors in China

This study seeks to estimate how global supply chain relocates emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors and its impacts in shaping ozone formation. Here we show that goods produced in China for foreign markets lead to an increase of domestic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions by 3.5 million tons in 2013; about 13% of the national total or, equivalent to half of emissions from European Union. Production for export increases concentration of NMVOCs (including some carcinogenic species) and peak ozone levels by 20–30% and 6–15% respectively, in the coastal areas. It contributes to an estimated 16,889 (3,839–30,663, 95% CI) premature deaths annually combining the effects of NMVOCs and ozone, but could be reduced by nearly 40% by closing the technology gap between China and EU. Export demand also alters the emission ratios between NMVOCs and nitrogen oxides and hence the ozone chemistry in the east and south coast

Black carbon emissions from flaring in Russia in the period 2012-2017

Highlights • New estimate for black carbon emissions from flaring in Russia. • Enhanced temporal profiles of flared gas volume from VIIRS. • Oil and gas field-type specific emission factors developed. • Average BC emissions from 2012 to 2017 are estimated at 68.3 Gg/year.Gas flaring in the oil and gas industry has been identified as an important source of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) affecting the climate, particularly in the Arctic. Our study provides spatially-explicit estimates of BC emissions from flaring in Russia utilising state-of-the-art methodology for determining the emission factors. We utilised satellite time series of the flared gas volume from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) for the period 2012 to 2017, supplemented with information on the gas and oil field type. BC emissions at flaring locations were calculated based on field type-specific emission factors, taking into account different gas compositions in each field type. We estimate that the average annual BC emissions from flaring in Russia were 68.3 Gg/year, with the largest proportion stemming from oil fields (82%). We observed a decrease in the yearly emissions during the period 2012 to 2017 with regional differences in the trend. Our results highlight the importance of detailed information on gas composition and the stage of oil and gas separation of the flared gas to reduce uncertainties in the BC emission estimates