Hydraulic and hydrological modelling of the Nyl River floodplain for environmental impact assessment

Master of Science in Engineering - EngineeringThere have been various threats from upstream catchment developments to the water supply of the ecologically important Nylsvlei floodplain in South Africa. Hydrological modelling of the catchments and unsteady hydraulic modelling of the floodplain (including measured losses to evapotranspiration and infiltration) with biotic links to Oryza longistaminata revealed that existing developments within the catchments have decreased areas suitable for growth of this plant in the Nylsvley Reserve by 9% on average from 1973/74 to 2000/01 compared to the catchment in a virgin state. Construction of the proposed Olifantspruit Dam with environmental flow releases would have reduced these suitable areas by a further 9% on average. Catchment developments were found to have the greatest impact on floodplain inundation in average to dry years and would also reduce the frequency of occurrence of suitable conditions for growth of Oryza longistaminata

Improving the Accuracy of Hydrodynamic Simulations in Data Scarce Environments Using Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study of the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, West Africa

In this paper, the study area was the Inner Niger Delta (IND) in Mali, West Africa. The IND is threatened by climate change, increasing irrigation, and dam operations. 2D hydrodynamic modelling was used to simulate water levels, discharge, and inundation extent in the IND. Three different digital elevation models (DEM) (SRTM, MERIT, and a DEM derived from satellite images were used as a source of elevation data. Six different models were created, with different sources of elevation data and different downstream boundary conditions. Given that the performance of the models varies according to the location in the IND, the variable under consideration and the performance criteria, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was used to assess the relative performance of each of the six models. The BMA weights, along with deterministic performance measures, such as the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) and the Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), provide quantitative evidence as to which model is the best when simulating a particular hydraulic variable at a particular location. After the models were combined with BMA, both discharge and water levels could be simulated with reasonable precision (NS > 0.8). The results of this work can contribute to the more efficient management of water resources in the IND

Medroxyprogesterone Acetate Alters Mycobacterium Bovis BCG-Induced Cytokine Production in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells of Contraceptive Users

Most individuals latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) contain the infection by a balance of effector and regulatory immune responses. This balance can be influenced by steroid hormones such as glucocorticoids. The widely used contraceptive medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) possesses glucocorticoid activity. We investigated the effect of this hormone on immune responses to BCG in household contacts of active TB patients. Multiplex bead array analysis revealed that MPA demonstrated both glucocorticoid and progestogenic properties at saturating and pharmacological concentrations in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and suppressed antigen specific cytokine production. Furthermore we showed that PBMCs from women using MPA produced significantly lower levels of IL-1α, IL-12p40, IL-10, IL-13 and G-CSF in response to BCG which corresponded with lower numbers of circulating monocytes observed in these women. Our research study is the first to show that MPA impacts on infections outside the genital tract due to a systemic effect on immune function. Therefore MPA use could alter susceptibility to TB, TB disease severity as well as change the efficacy of new BCG-based vaccines, especially prime-boost vaccine strategies which may be administered to adult or adolescent women in the future

MRI-derived g-ratio and lesion severity in newly diagnosed multiple sclerosis

Myelin loss is associated with axonal damage in established multiple sclerosis. This relationship is challenging to study in vivo in early disease. Here, we ask whether myelin loss is associated with axonal damage at diagnosis, by combining non-invasive neuroimaging and blood biomarkers. We performed quantitative microstructural MRI and single molecule ELISA plasma neurofilament measurement in 73 patients with newly diagnosed, immunotherapy naïve relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Myelin integrity was evaluated using aggregate g-ratios, derived from magnetization transfer saturation (MTsat) and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) diffusion data. We found significantly higher g-ratios within cerebral white matter lesions (suggesting myelin loss) compared with normal-appearing white matter (0.61 vs 0.57, difference 0.036, 95% CI 0.029 to 0.043, p < 0.001). Lesion volume (Spearman’s rho rs= 0.38, p < 0.001) and g-ratio (rs= 0.24 p < 0.05) correlated independently with plasma neurofilament. In patients with substantial lesion load (n = 38), those with higher g-ratio (defined as greater than median) were more likely to have abnormally elevated plasma neurofilament than those with normal g-ratio (defined as less than median) (11/23 [48%] versus 2/15 [13%] p < 0.05). These data suggest that, even at multiple sclerosis diagnosis, reduced myelin integrity is associated with axonal damage. MRI-derived g-ratio may provide useful additional information regarding lesion severity, and help to identify individuals with a high degree of axonal damage at disease onset. York, Martin et al. simultaneously measured g-ratio and plasma neurofilament in 73 relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients at diagnosis using advanced MRI and single molecule ELISA. They demonstrate that g-ratio of cerebral white matter lesions varies at diagnosis, and show that high g-ratio of lesions is associated with elevated plasma neurofilament

Distinct serum biosignatures are associated with different tuberculosis treatment outcomes.

Biomarkers for TB treatment response and outcome are needed. This study characterize changes in immune profiles during TB treatment, define biosignatures associated with treatment outcomes, and explore the feasibility of predictive models for relapse. Seventy-two markers were measured by multiplex cytokine array in serum samples from 78 cured, 12 relapsed and 15 failed treatment patients from South Africa before and during therapy for pulmonary TB. Promising biosignatures were evaluated in a second cohort from Uganda/Brazil consisting of 17 relapse and 23 cured patients. Thirty markers changed significantly with different response patterns during TB treatment in cured patients. The serum biosignature distinguished cured from relapse patients and a combination of two clinical (time to positivity in liquid culture and BMI) and four immunological parameters (TNF-?, sIL-6R, IL-12p40 and IP-10) at diagnosis predicted relapse with a 75% sensitivity (95%CI 0.38-1) and 85% specificity (95%CI 0.75-0.93). This biosignature was validated in an independent Uganda/Brazil cohort correctly classifying relapse patients with 83% (95%CI 0.58-1) sensitivity and 61% (95%CI 0.39-0.83) specificity. A characteristic biosignature with value as predictor of TB relapse was identified. The repeatability and robustness of these biomarkers require further validation in well-characterized cohorts

Improving the Accuracy of Hydrodynamic Simulations in Data Scarce Environments Using Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study of the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, West Africa

In this paper, the study area was the Inner Niger Delta (IND) in Mali, West Africa. The IND is threatened by climate change, increasing irrigation, and dam operations. 2D hydrodynamic modelling was used to simulate water levels, discharge, and inundation extent in the IND. Three different digital elevation models (DEM) (SRTM, MERIT, and a DEM derived from satellite images were used as a source of elevation data. Six different models were created, with different sources of elevation data and different downstream boundary conditions. Given that the performance of the models varies according to the location in the IND, the variable under consideration and the performance criteria, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was used to assess the relative performance of each of the six models. The BMA weights, along with deterministic performance measures, such as the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) and the Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), provide quantitative evidence as to which model is the best when simulating a particular hydraulic variable at a particular location. After the models were combined with BMA, both discharge and water levels could be simulated with reasonable precision (NS > 0.8). The results of this work can contribute to the more efficient management of water resources in the IND

Differential cell counts of MPA users and control participants.

<p>Blood was drawn from each study participant (65 MPA users and 163 controls) and the counts determined by the National Health Laboratory Service. Statistical differences were determined by the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test and represented as means and 95%CI.</p