Missing sea level rise in southeastern Greenland during and since the Little Ice Age

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the past 2 decades. Understanding ice mass and glacier changes during the preceding several hundred years prior to geodetic measurements is more difficult because evidence of past ice extent in many places was later overridden. Salt marshes provide the only continuous records of relative sea level (RSL) from close to the Greenland Ice Sheet that span the period of time during and since the Little Ice Age (LIA) and can be used to reconstruct ice mass gain and loss over recent centuries. Salt marsh sediments collected at the mouth of Dronning Marie Dal, close to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin in southeastern Greenland, record RSL changes over the past ca. 300 years through changing sediment and diatom stratigraphy. These RSL changes record a combination of processes that are dominated by local and regional changes in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance during this critical period that spans the maximum of the LIA and 20th-century warming. In the early part of the record (1725–1762 CE) the rate of RSL rise is higher than reconstructed from the closest isolation basin at Timmiarmiut, but between 1762 and 1880 CE the RSL rate is within the error range of the rate of RSL change recorded in the isolation basin. RSL begins to slowly fall around 1880 CE, with a total amount of RSL fall of 0.09±0.1 m in the last 140 years. Modelled RSL, which takes into account contributions from post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), ongoing deglacial GIA, the global non-ice sheet glacial melt fingerprint, contributions from thermosteric effects, the Antarctic mass loss sea level fingerprint and terrestrial water storage, overpredicts the amount of RSL fall since the end of the LIA by at least 0.5 m. The GIA signal caused by post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss is by far the largest contributor to this modelled RSL, and error in its calculation has a large impact on RSL predictions at Dronning Marie Dal. We cannot reconcile the modelled RSL and the salt marsh observations, even when moving the termination of the LIA to 1700 CE and reducing the post-LIA Greenland mass loss signal by 30 %, and a “budget residual” of  mm yr−1 since the end of the LIA remains unexplained. This new RSL record backs up other studies that suggest that there are significant regional differences in the timing and magnitude of the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the climate shift from the LIA into the 20th century

Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrom 1849-2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM

Abstract. Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (Larour et al., 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849–2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849–1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932–1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998–2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849–2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws. </jats:p

Asynchronous behavior of outlet glaciers feeding Godthåbsfjord (Nuup Kangerlua) and the triggering of Narsap Sermia's retreat in SW Greenland

We assess ice loss and velocity changes between 1985 and 2014 of three tidewater and fiveland terminating glaciers in Godthabsfjord (Nuup Kangerlua), Greenland. Glacier thinning accounted for 43.8 +/- 0.2 km(3) of ice loss, equivalent to 0.10 mm eustatic sea-level rise. An additional 3.5 +/- 0.3 km(3) was lost to the calving retreats of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) and Narsap Sermia (NS), two tidewater glaciers that exhibited asynchronous behavior over the study period. KNS has retreated 22 km from its Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum (1761 AD), of which 0.8 km since 1985. KNS has stabilized in shallow water, but seasonally advects a 2 km long floating tongue. In contrast, NS began retreating from its LIA moraine in 2004-06 (0.6 km), re-stabilized, then retreated 3.3 km during 2010-14 into an over-deepened basin. Velocities at KNS ranged 5-6 km a(-1), while at NS they increased from 1.5 to 5.5 km a(-1) between 2004 and 2014. We present comprehensive analyses of glacier thinning, runoff, surface mass balance, ocean conditions, submarine melting, bed topography, ice melange and conclude that the 2010-14 NS retreat was triggered by a combination of factors but primarily by an increase in submarine melting.We thank W. Dryer and D. Podrasky for assistance with fieldwork and L. Kenefic for assisting with digitizing glacier front positions. CH2 M HILL Polar Services and Air Greenland provided logistics support. The SPOT-5 images used for the 2008 DEM were provided by the SPIRIT program (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, France). The DigitalGlobe Worldview images used for the 2014 DEM were obtained from P. Morin. Terminus positions were derived from Landsat images courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. Funding was provided by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Office of Polar Programs (OPP) grants NSF PLR-0909552 and NSF PLR-0909333. Cassotto is supported by NASA under the Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant NNX14AL29H). K. K. Kjeldsen acknowledges support from the Danish Council Research for Independent Research (grant no. DFF-409000151). K. Kjaer is thanked for his support during the earlier phases of this study. On-ice weather stations are operated by GEUS (Denmark) within the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE). J. Mortensen acknowledges support from IIKNN (Greenland), DEFROST project of the Nordic Centre of Excellence program "Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere" and the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme (www. g-e-m. dk).S. Rysgaard was funded by the Canada Excellence Research Chair Programme. Additional funding was provided by the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Greenland Climate Research Centre. Scientific editor H. Fricker and reviewers H. Jiskoot and G. Cogley provided very constructive feedback that helped improve the paper.Peer ReviewedRitrýnt tímari

A first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet

PROMICE is funded by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities under the Danish Cooperation for Environment in the Arctic (DANCEA), and is conducted in collaboration with DTU Space (Technical University of Denmark) and Asiaq, Greenland.The Greenland ice sheet has been one of the largest sources of sea-level rise since the early 2000s. However, basal melt has not been included explicitly in assessments of ice-sheet mass loss so far. Here, we present the first estimate of the total and regional basal melt produced by the ice sheet and the recent change in basal melt through time. We find that the ice sheet’s present basal melt production is 21.4 +4.4/−4.0 Gt per year, and that melt generated by basal friction is responsible for about half of this volume. We estimate that basal melting has increased by 2.9 ± 5.2 Gt during the first decade of the 2000s. As the Arctic warms, we anticipate that basal melt will continue to increase due to faster ice flow and more surface melting thus compounding current mass loss trends, enhancing solid ice discharge, and modifying fjord circulation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications

We present the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) sea-level projections for four Danish cities (Aarhus, Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Hirtshals) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) family of climate scenarios. These sea-level changes projected over the next century are up to an order of magnitude larger than those observed over the previous century. At these cities, year 2150 sea-level changes of between 29 and 55 cm are projected under the very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), while changes of between 99 and 123 cm are projected under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These differences highlight the potentially significant impact of remaining opportunities for climate change mitigation. Due to this increase in mean sea level, the mean recurrence time between historically extreme events is expected to decrease. Under the very high emissions scenario, the historical 100-year storm flood event will become a 1- to 5-year event at most Danish harbours by 2100. There is considerable uncertainty associated with these sea-level projections, primarily driven by uncertainty in the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and future sterodynamic changes in ocean volume. The AR6 characterises collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as a low-probability but high-impact event that could cause several metres of sea-level rise around Denmark by 2150. In climate adaptation policy, the scientific landscape is shifting fast. There has been a tremendous proliferation of diverse sea-level projections in recent years, with the most relevant planning target for Denmark increasing c. 50 cm in the past two decades. Translating sea-level rise projections into planning targets requires value judgments about acceptable sea-level risk that depend on local geography, planning timeline and climate pathway. This highlights the need for an overarching national sea-level adaptation plan to ensure municipal plans conform to risk and action standards

A large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland.

We report the discovery of a large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland. From airborne radar surveys, we identify a 31-kilometer-wide, circular bedrock depression beneath up to a kilometer of ice. This depression has an elevated rim that cross-cuts tributary subglacial channels and a subdued central uplift that appears to be actively eroding. From ground investigations of the deglaciated foreland, we identify overprinted structures within Precambrian bedrock along the ice margin that strike tangent to the subglacial rim. Glaciofluvial sediment from the largest river draining the crater contains shocked quartz and other impact-related grains. Geochemical analysis of this sediment indicates that the impactor was a fractionated iron asteroid, which must have been more than a kilometer wide to produce the identified crater. Radiostratigraphy of the ice in the crater shows that the Holocene ice is continuous and conformable, but all deeper and older ice appears to be debris rich or heavily disturbed. The age of this impact crater is presently unknown, but from our geological and geophysical evidence, we conclude that it is unlikely to predate the Pleistocene inception of the Greenland Ice Sheet