Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone

Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PFP^LM) for cold winters is apparent in meteorological data collected over the past half century. Output from numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) also exhibits positive trends in PFP^LM over 1950 to 2100, with highest values occurring at end of century, for simulations driven by a large rise in the radiative forcing of climate from greenhouse gases (GHGs). We combine projections of stratospheric halogen loading and humidity with GCM-based forecasts of temperature to suggest that conditions favourable for large, seasonal loss of Arctic column O3 could persist or even worsen until the end of this century, if future abundances of GHGs continue to steeply rise

Development of a data-assimilation system to forecast agricultural systems: A case study of constraining soil water and soil nitrogen dynamics in the APSIM model

As we face today\u27s large-scale agricultural issues, the need for robust methods of agricultural forecasting has never been clearer. Yet, the accuracy and precision of our forecasts remains limited by current tools and methods. To overcome the limitations of process-based models and observed data, we iteratively designed and tested a generalizable and robust data-assimilation system that systematically constrains state variables in the APSIM model to improve forecast accuracy and precision. Our final novel system utilizes the Ensemble Kalman Filter to constrain model states and update model parameters at observed time steps and incorporates an algorithm that improves system performance through the joint estimation of system error matrices. We tested this system at the Energy Farm, a well-monitored research site in central Illinois, where we assimilated observed in situ soil moisture at daily time steps for two years and evaluated how assimilation impacted model forecasts of soil moisture, yield, leaf area index, tile flow, and nitrate leaching by comparing estimates with in situ observations. The system improved the accuracy and precision of soil moisture estimates for the assimilation layers by an average of 42% and 48%, respectively, when compared to the free model. Such improvements led to changes in the model\u27s soil water and nitrogen processes and, on average, increased accuracy in forecasts of annual tile flow by 43% and annual nitrate loads by 10%. Forecasts of aboveground measures did not dramatically change with assimilation, a fact which highlights the limited potential of soil moisture as a constraint for a site with no water stress. Extending the scope of previous work, our results demonstrate the power of data assimilation to constrain important model estimates beyond the assimilated state variable, such as nitrate leaching. Replication of this study is necessary to further define the limitations and opportunities of the developed system

The recovery of mitotic disturbances in the root systems of gamma-ray irradiated peas

Dormant seeds of a green pea variety Rondo were irradiated with 7000 rads of gamma rays from Co60 source. The frequency of mitotic disturbances in root tip cells was analysed during the first three weeks of growth. In agreement with earlier works a rapid decrease of frequency was observed: during the 4th and 5th days of growing the proportion of disturbances was reduced from 42 to 19 per cent and it came close to the level of the control material during the third week of growth. The discussion briefly examines the importance of the »sieve of mitosis» and its relation to the »sieve of meiosis» in eliminating the changes of hereditary material during the development of the M1-generation

Derivation of tropospheric methane from TCCON CH₄ and HF total column observations

The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is a global ground-based network of Fourier transform spectrometers that produce precise measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of atmospheric methane (CH₄). Temporal variability in the total column of CH₄ due to stratospheric dynamics obscures fluctuations and trends driven by tropospheric transport and local surface fluxes that are critical for understanding CH₄ sources and sinks. We reduce the contribution of stratospheric variability from the total column average by subtracting an estimate of the stratospheric CH₄ derived from simultaneous measurements of hydrogen fluoride (HF). HF provides a proxy for stratospheric CH₄ because it is strongly correlated to CH₄ in the stratosphere, has an accurately known tropospheric abundance (of zero), and is measured at most TCCON stations. The stratospheric partial column of CH₄ is calculated as a function of the zonal and annual trends in the relationship between CH₄ and HF in the stratosphere, which we determine from ACE-FTS satellite data. We also explicitly take into account the CH₄ column averaging kernel to estimate the contribution of stratospheric CH₄ to the total column. The resulting tropospheric CH₄ columns are consistent with in situ aircraft measurements and augment existing observations in the troposphere

First data set of H₂O/HDO columns from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)

This paper presents a new data set of vertical column densities of the water vapour isotopologues H2O and HDO retrieved from short-wave infrared (2.3 μm) reflectance measurements by the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. TROPOMI features daily global coverage with a spatial resolution of up to 7 km × 7 km. The retrieval utilises a profile-scaling approach. The forward model neglects scattering, thus strict cloud filtering is necessary. For validation, recent ground-based water vapour isotopologue measurements by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) are employed. A comparison of TCCON δD with measurements by the project Multi-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water (MUSICA) for data prior to 2014 (where MUSICA data is available) shows a bias in TCCON δD estimates. As TCCON HDO is currently not validated, an overall correction of recent TCCON HDO data is derived based on this finding. The agreement between the corrected TCCON measurements and collocated TROPOMI observations is good with an average bias of (0.02 ± 2) · 1021 molec cm−2 in H2O and (−0.3 ± 7) · 1017 molec cm−2 in HDO, which corresponds to a bias of (−12 ± 17) ‰ in a posteriori δD. The use of the data set is demonstrated with a case study of a blocking anticyclone in northwestern Europe in July 2018 using single overpass data

APEX-MODFLOW: A New integrated model to simulate hydrological processes in watershed systems

APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) is an oft-used agroecosystem model but has limited use in groundwater-driven watersheds due to a simplistic representation of groundwater processes. This paper presents the linkage of APEX and the groundwater flow model MODFLOW into a single modeling code. The mapping of recharge, groundwater head, and groundwater-surface water interactions are handled internally via subroutines. The APEX-MODFLOW model is applied to three watersheds in the United States for testing code accuracy and hydrologic state variables and fluxes: the Animas River Watershed, Colorado and New Mexico (3543 km2); the Price River Watershed, Utah (4886 km2); and the Middle Bosque River Watershed, Texas (470 km2). Whereas the hydrology of the Animas River and Price River watersheds is driven by snowmelt and spring runoff, the hydrology of the Middle Bosque River Watershed is driven by summer thunderstorms. The model can be used for scenario analysis in groundwater-driven watersheds

Towards an active and happy retirement? Changes in leisure activity and depressive symptoms during the retirement transition

Objectives: Retirement is a major life transition in the second half of life, and it can be associated with changes in leisure activity engagement. Although theories of retirement adjustment have emphasized the need to find meaningful activities in retirement, little is known about the nature of changes in leisure activity during the retirement transition and their association with mental health. Methods: Based on four annual waves of the 'Health, Aging and Retirement Transitions in Sweden' study, we investigated the longitudinal association of leisure activity engagement and depressive symptoms using bivariate dual change score models. We distinguished intellectual, social, and physical activity engagement. Results: We found increases in all three domains of activity engagement after retirement. Although level and change of activity and depressive symptoms were negatively associated, the coupling parameters were not significant, thus the direction of effects remains unclear. Conclusion: The results highlight the need to consider the role of lifestyle changes for retirement adjustment and mental health

Formation of solid particles in synoptic-scale Arctic PSCs in early winter 2002/2003

International audiencePolar stratospheric clouds (PSC) have been observed in early winter (December 2002) during the SOLVE II/Vintersol campaign, both from balloons carrying comprehensive instrumentation for measurements of chemical composition, size distributions, and optical properties of the particles, as well as from individual backscatter soundings from Esrange and Sodankylä. The observations are unique in the sense that the PSC particles seem to have formed in the early winter under synoptic temperature conditions and not being influenced by mountain lee waves. A sequence of measurements during a 5-days period shows a gradual change between liquid and solid type PSCs with the development of a well-known sandwich structure. It appears that all PSC observations show the presence of a background population of solid particles, occasionally mixed in with more optically dominating liquid particles. The measurements have been compared with results from a detailed microphysical and optical simulation of the formation processes. Calculated extinctions are in good agreement with SAGE-III measurements from the same period. Apparently the solid particles are controlled by the synoptic temperature history while the presence of liquid particles is controlled by the local temperatures at the time of observation. The temperature histories indicate that the solid particles are nucleated above the ice frost point, and a surface freezing mechanism for this is included in the model. Reducing the calculated freezing rates by a factor 10-20, the model is able to simulate the observed particle size distributions and reproduce observed HNO3 gas phase concentrations

Arctic stratospheric dehydration – Part 2: Microphysical modeling

Large areas of synoptic-scale ice PSCs (polar stratospheric clouds) distinguished the Arctic winter 2009/2010 from other years and revealed unprecedented evidence of water redistribution in the stratosphere. A unique snapshot of water vapor repartitioning into ice particles was obtained under extremely cold Arctic conditions with temperatures around 183 K. Balloon-borne, aircraft and satellite-based measurements suggest that synoptic-scale ice PSCs and concurrent reductions and enhancements in water vapor are tightly linked with the observed de- and rehydration signatures, respectively. In a companion paper (Part 1), water vapor and aerosol backscatter measurements from the RECONCILE (Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions) and LAPBIAT-II (Lapland Atmosphere–Biosphere Facility) field campaigns have been analyzed in detail. This paper uses a column version of the Zurich Optical and Microphysical box Model (ZOMM) including newly developed NAT (nitric acid trihydrate) and ice nucleation parameterizations. Particle sedimentation is calculated in order to simulate the vertical redistribution of chemical species such as water and nitric acid. Despite limitations given by wind shear and uncertainties in the initial water vapor profile, the column modeling unequivocally shows that (1) accounting for small-scale temperature fluctuations along the trajectories is essential in order to reach agreement between simulated optical cloud properties and observations, and (2) the use of recently developed heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations allows the reproduction of the observed signatures of de- and rehydration. Conversely, the vertical redistribution of water measured cannot be explained in terms of homogeneous nucleation of ice clouds, whose particle radii remain too small to cause significant dehydration