SN 2021hpr and its two siblings in the Cepheid calibrator galaxy NGC 3147: A hierarchical BayeSN analysis of a Type Ia supernova trio, and a Hubble constant constraint

To improve Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) standardisability, the consistency of distance estimates to siblings -- SNe in the same host galaxy -- should be investigated. We present Young Supernova Experiment Pan-STARRS-1 $grizy$ photometry of SN 2021hpr, the third spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia in the high-stellar-mass Cepheid-calibrator galaxy NGC 3147. We analyse NGC 3147's trio of SN Ia siblings: SNe 1997bq, 2008fv and 2021hpr, using a new version of the BayeSN model of SN Ia spectral-energy distributions, retrained simultaneously using optical-NIR $BgVrizYJH$ (0.35--1.8 $\mu$m) data. The distance estimates to each sibling are consistent, with a sample standard deviation $\lesssim$0.01 mag, much smaller than the total intrinsic scatter in the training sample: $\sigma_0\approx0.09$ mag. Fitting normal SN Ia siblings in three additional galaxies, we estimate a $\approx$90% probability that the siblings' intrinsic scatter is smaller than $\sigma_0$. We build a new hierarchical model that fits light curves of siblings in a single galaxy simultaneously; this yields more precise estimates of the common distance and the dust parameters. Fitting the trio for a common dust law shape yields $R_V=2.69\pm0.52$. Our work motivates future hierarchical modelling of more siblings, to tightly constrain their intrinsic scatter, and better understand SN-host correlations. Finally, we estimate the Hubble constant, using a Cepheid distance to NGC 3147, the siblings trio, and 109 Hubble flow ($0.01 < z_{\rm{CMB}} < 0.08$) SNe Ia; marginalising over the siblings' and population's intrinsic scatters, and the peculiar velocity dispersion, yields $H_0=77.9\pm6.5 \text{ km s}^{-1}\text{Mpc}^{-1}$.Comment: Submitted to MNRAS; 30 pages, 22 figure

Flight of the Bumblebee: the Early Excess Flux of Type Ia Supernova 2023bee revealed by TESSTESS, SwiftSwift and Young Supernova Experiment Observations

We present high-cadence ultraviolet through near-infrared observations of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) 2023bee in NGC~2708 ($D = 32 \pm 3$ Mpc), finding excess flux in the first days after explosion relative to the expected power-law rise from an expanding fireball. This deviation from typical behavior for SNe Ia is particularly obvious in our 10-minute cadence $TESS$ light curve and $Swift$ UV data. Compared to a few other normal SNe Ia with detected early excess flux, the excess flux in SN 2023bee is redder in the UV and less luminous. We present optical spectra of SN 2023bee, including two spectra during the period where the flux excess is dominant. At this time, the spectra are similar to those of other SNe Ia but with weaker Si II, C II and Ca II absorption lines, perhaps because the excess flux creates a stronger continuum. We compare the data to several theoretical models that have been proposed to explain the early flux excess in SNe Ia. Interaction with either a nearby companion star or close-in circumstellar material is expected to produce a faster evolution than seen in the data. Radioactive material in the outer layers of the ejecta, either from a double detonation explosion or simply an explosion with a $^{56}$Ni clump near the surface, can not fully reproduce the evolution either, likely due to the sensitivity of early UV observable to the treatment of the outer part of ejecta in simulation. We conclude that no current model can adequately explain the full set of observations. We find that a relatively large fraction of nearby, bright SNe Ia with high-cadence observations have some amount of excess flux within a few days of explosion. Considering potential asymmetric emission, the physical cause of this excess flux may be ubiquitous in normal SNe Ia.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures. Accepted by the astrophysical journa

SN 2022oqm: A Multi-peaked Calcium-rich Transient from a White Dwarf Binary Progenitor System

We present the photometric and spectroscopic evolution of SN 2022oqm, a nearby multi-peaked hydrogen- and helium-weak calcium-rich transient (CaRT). SN 2022oqm was detected 19.9 kpc from its host galaxy, the face-on spiral galaxy NGC 5875. Extensive spectroscopic coverage reveals a hot (T >= 40,000 K) continuum and carbon features observed ~1 day after discovery, SN Ic-like photospheric-phase spectra, and strong forbidden calcium emission starting 38 days after discovery. SN 2022oqm has a relatively high peak luminosity (MB = -17 mag) for CaRTs, making it an outlier in the population. We determine that three power sources are necessary to explain SN 2022oqm's light curve, with each power source corresponding to a distinct peak in its light curve. The first peak of the light curve is powered by an expanding blackbody with a power law luminosity, consistent with shock cooling by circumstellar material. Subsequent peaks are powered by a double radioactive decay model, consistent with two separate sources of photons diffusing through an optically thick ejecta. From the optical light curve, we derive an ejecta mass and 56Ni mass of ~0.89 solar masses and ~0.09 solar masses, respectively. Detailed spectroscopic modeling reveals ejecta that is dominated by intermediate-mass elements, with signs that Fe-peak elements have been well-mixed. We discuss several physical origins for SN 2022oqm and favor a white dwarf progenitor model. The inferred ejecta mass points to a surprisingly massive white dwarf, challenging models of CaRT progenitors.Comment: 33 pages, 17 figures, 5 tables, Submitted to Ap

Food for pollinators: quantifying the nectar and pollen resources of urban flower meadows

Planted meadows are increasingly used to improve the biodiversity and aesthetic amenity value of urban areas. Although many ‘pollinator-friendly’ seed mixes are available, the floral resources these provide to flower-visiting insects, and how these change through time, are largely unknown. Such data are necessary to compare the resources provided by alternative meadow seed mixes to each other and to other flowering habitats. We used quantitative surveys of over 2 million flowers to estimate the nectar and pollen resources offered by two exemplar commercial seed mixes (one annual, one perennial) and associated weeds grown as 300m2 meadows across four UK cities, sampled at six time points between May and September 2013. Nectar sugar and pollen rewards per flower varied widely across 65 species surveyed, with native British weed species (including dandelion, Taraxacum agg.) contributing the top five nectar producers and two of the top ten pollen producers. Seed mix species yielding the highest rewards per flower included Leontodon hispidus, Centaurea cyanus and C. nigra for nectar, and Papaver rhoeas, Eschscholzia californica and Malva moschata for pollen. Perennial meadows produced up to 20x more nectar and up to 6x more pollen than annual meadows, which in turn produced far more than amenity grassland controls. Perennial meadows produced resources earlier in the year than annual meadows, but both seed mixes delivered very low resource levels early in the year and these were provided almost entirely by native weeds. Pollen volume per flower is well predicted statistically by floral morphology, and nectar sugar mass and pollen volume per unit area are correlated with flower counts, raising the possibility that resource levels can be estimated for species or habitats where they cannot be measured directly. Our approach does not incorporate resource quality information (for example, pollen protein or essential amino acid content), but can easily do so when suitable data exist. Our approach should inform the design of new seed mixes to ensure continuity in floral resource availability throughout the year, and to identify suitable species to fill resource gaps in established mixes

An aminostratigraphy for the British Quaternary based on Bithynia opercula

Aminostratigraphies of Quaternary non-marine deposits in Europe have been previously based on the racemization of a single amino acid in aragonitic shells from land and freshwater molluscs. The value of analysing multiple amino acids from the opercula of the freshwater gastropod Bithynia, which are composed of calcite, has been demonstrated. The protocol used for the isolation of intra-crystalline proteins from shells has been applied to these calcitic opercula, which have been shown to more closely approximate a closed system for indigenous protein residues. Original amino acids are even preserved in bithyniid opercula from the Eocene, showing persistence of indigenous organics for over 30 million years. Geochronological data from opercula are superior to those from shells in two respects: first, in showing less natural variability, and second, in the far better preservation of the intra-crystalline proteins, possibly resulting from the greater stability of calcite. These features allow greater temporal resolution and an extension of the dating range beyond the early Middle Pleistocene. Here we provide full details of the analyses for 480 samples from 100 horizons (75 sites), ranging from Late Pliocene to modern. These show that the dating technique is applicable to the entire Quaternary. Data are provided from all the stratotypes from British stages to have yielded opercula, which are shown to be clearly separable using this revised method. Further checks on the data are provided by reference to other type-sites for different stages (including some not formally defined). Additional tests are provided by sites with independent geochronology, or which can be associated with a terrace stratigraphy or biostratigraphy. This new aminostratigraphy for the non-marine Quaternary deposits of southern Britain provides a framework for understanding the regional geological and archaeological record. Comparison with reference to sites yielding independent geochronology, in combination with other lines of evidence, allows tentative correlation with the marine oxygen isotope record

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Flight of the bumblebee : the early excess flux of Type Ia supernova 2023bee revealed by TESS, Swift, and Young Supernova Experiment observations

We present high-cadence ultraviolet through near-infrared observations of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) 2023bee at D = 32 ± 3 Mpc, finding excess flux in the first days after explosion, particularly in our 10 minutes cadence TESS light curve and Swift UV data. Compared to a few other normal SNe Ia with early excess flux, the excess flux in SN 2023bee is redder in the UV and less luminous. We present optical spectra of SN 2023bee, including two spectra during the period where the flux excess is dominant. At this time, the spectra are similar to those of other SNe Ia but with weaker Si ii, C ii, and Ca ii absorption lines, perhaps because the excess flux creates a stronger continuum. We compare the data to several theoretical models on the origin of early excess flux in SNe Ia. Interaction with either the companion star or close-in circumstellar material is expected to produce a faster evolution than observed. Radioactive material in the outer layers of the ejecta, either from double detonation explosion or from a 56Ni clump near the surface, cannot fully reproduce the evolution either, likely due to the sensitivity of early UV observable to the treatment of the outer part of ejecta in simulation. We conclude that no current model can adequately explain the full set of observations. We find that a relatively large fraction of nearby, bright SNe Ia with high-cadence observations have some amount of excess flux within a few days of explosion. Considering potential asymmetric emission, the physical cause of this excess flux may be ubiquitous in normal SNe Ia

Abstracts from the NIHR INVOLVE Conference 2017

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GWAS meta-analysis of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy implicates multiple hepatic genes and regulatory elements

Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is a pregnancy-specific liver disorder affecting 0.5–2% of pregnancies. The majority of cases present in the third trimester with pruritus, elevated serum bile acids and abnormal serum liver tests. ICP is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes, including spontaneous preterm birth and stillbirth. Whilst rare mutations affecting hepatobiliary transporters contribute to the aetiology of ICP, the role of common genetic variation in ICP has not been systematically characterised to date. Here, we perform genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and meta-analyses for ICP across three studies including 1138 cases and 153,642 controls. Eleven loci achieve genome-wide significance and have been further investigated and fine-mapped using functional genomics approaches. Our results pinpoint common sequence variation in liver-enriched genes and liver-specific cis-regulatory elements as contributing mechanisms to ICP susceptibility

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570