A framework for probabilistic weather forecast post-processing across models and lead times using machine learning

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the forecasting skill of NWP models continues to improve, the number and complexity of these models poses a new challenge for the operational meteorologist: how should the information from all available models, each with their own unique biases and limitations, be combined in order to provide stakeholders with well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts to use in decision making? In this paper, we use a road surface temperature example to demonstrate a three-stage framework that uses machine learning to bridge the gap between sets of separate forecasts from NWP models and the 'ideal' forecast for decision support: probabilities of future weather outcomes. First, we use Quantile Regression Forests to learn the error profile of each numerical model, and use these to apply empirically-derived probability distributions to forecasts. Second, we combine these probabilistic forecasts using quantile averaging. Third, we interpolate between the aggregate quantiles in order to generate a full predictive distribution, which we demonstrate has properties suitable for decision support. Our results suggest that this approach provides an effective and operationally viable framework for the cohesive post-processing of weather forecasts across multiple models and lead times to produce a well-calibrated probabilistic output.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, to be published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

Online dynamic flat-field correction for MHz Microscopy data at European XFEL

The X-ray microscopy technique at the European X-ray free-electron laser (EuXFEL), operating at a MHz repetition rate, provides superior contrast and spatial-temporal resolution compared to typical microscopy techniques at other X-ray sources. In both online visualization and offline data analysis for microscopy experiments, baseline normalization is essential for further processing steps such as phase retrieval and modal decomposition. In addition, access to normalized projections during data acquisition can play an important role in decision-making and improve the quality of the data. However, the stochastic nature of XFEL sources hinders the use of existing flat-flied normalization methods during MHz X-ray microscopy experiments. Here, we present an online dynamic flat-field correction method based on principal component analysis of dynamically evolving flat-field images. The method is used for the normalization of individual X-ray projections and has been implemented as an online analysis tool at the Single Particles, Clusters, and Biomolecules and Serial Femtosecond Crystallography (SPB/SFX) instrument of EuXFEL.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Evaluation of six CTLA-4 polymorphisms in high-risk melanoma patients receiving adjuvant interferon therapy in the He13A/98 multicenter trial

<p>ABSTRACT</p> <p>Purpose</p> <p>Interferon is approved for adjuvant treatment of patients with stage IIb/III melanoma. The toxicity and uncertainty regarding survival benefits of interferon have qualified its acceptance, despite significant durable relapse prevention in a fraction of patients. Predictive biomarkers that would enable selection of patients for therapy would have a large impact upon clinical practice. Specific CTLA-4 polymorphisms have previously shown an association with response to CTLA-4 blockade in patients with metastatic melanoma and the development of autoimmunity.</p> <p>Experimental design</p> <p>286 melanoma patients and 288 healthy controls were genotyped for six CTLA-4 polymorphisms previously suggested to be important (AG 49, CT 318, CT 60, JO 27, JO30 and JO 31). Specific allele frequencies were compared between the healthy and patient populations, as well as presence or absence of these in relation to recurrence. Alleles related to autoimmune disease were also investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No significant differences were found between the distributions of CTLA-4 polymorphisms in the melanoma population compared with healthy controls. Relapse free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) did not differ significantly between patients with the alleles represented by these polymorphisms. No correlation between autoimmunity and specific alleles was shown. The six polymorphisms evaluated where strongly associated (Fisher's exact p-values < 0.001 for all associations) and significant linkage disequilibrium among these was indicated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>No polymorphisms of CTLA-4 defined by the SNPs studied were correlated with improved RFS, OS, or autoimmunity in this high-risk group of melanoma patients.</p

Advances in Antisense Oligonucleotide Development for Target Identification, Validation, and as Novel Therapeutics

Antisense oligonucleotides (As-ODNs) are single stranded, synthetically prepared strands of deoxynucleotide sequences, usually 18–21 nucleotides in length, complementary to the mRNA sequence of the target gene. As-ODNs are able to selectively bind cognate mRNA sequences by sequence-specific hybridization. This results in cleavage or disablement of the mRNA and, thus, inhibits the expression of the target gene. The specificity of the As approach is based on the probability that, in the human genome, any sequence longer than a minimal number of nucleotides (nt), 13 for RNA and 17 for DNA, normally occurs only once. The potential applications of As-ODNs are numerous because mRNA is ubiquitous and is more accessible to manipulation than DNA. With the publication of the human genome sequence, it has become theoretically possible to inhibit mRNA of almost any gene by As-ODNs, in order to get a better understanding of gene function, investigate its role in disease pathology and to study novel therapeutic targets for the diseases caused by dysregulated gene expression. The conceptual simplicity, the availability of gene sequence information from the human genome, the inexpensive availability of synthetic oligonucleotides and the possibility of rational drug design makes As-ODNs powerful tools for target identification, validation and therapeutic intervention. In this review we discuss the latest developments in antisense oligonucleotide design, delivery, pharmacokinetics and potential side effects, as well as its uses in target identification and validation, and finally focus on the current developments of antisense oligonucleotides in therapeutic intervention in various diseases

Zu den Wurzeln der Modernen Architektur, Teil I

Modern emerging technologies, such as additive manufacturing, bioprinting, and new material production, require novel metrology tools to probe fundamental high-speed dynamics happening in such systems. Here we demonstrate the application of the megahertz (MHz) European X-ray Free-Electron Laser (EuXFEL) to image the fast stochastic processes induced by a laser on water-filled capillaries with micrometer-scale spatial resolution. The EuXFEL provides superior contrast and spatial resolution compared to equivalent state-of-the-art synchrotron experiments. This work opens up new possibilities for the characterization of MHz stochastic processes on the nanosecond to microsecond time scales with object velocities up to a few kilometers per second using XFEL sources

Lake salinization drives consistent losses of zooplankton abundance and diversity across coordinated mesocosm experiments

Human-induced salinization increasingly threatens inland waters; yet we know little about the multifaceted response of lake communities to salt contamination. By conducting a coordinated mesocosm experiment of lake salinization across 16 sites in North America and Europe, we quantified the response of zooplankton abundance and (taxonomic and functional) community structure to a broad gradient of environmentally relevant chloride concentrations, ranging from 4 to ca. 1400 mg Cl- L-1. We found that crustaceans were distinctly more sensitive to elevated chloride than rotifers; yet, rotifers did not show compensatory abundance increases in response to crustacean declines. For crustaceans, our among-site comparisons indicate: (1) highly consistent decreases in abundance and taxon richness with salinity; (2) widespread chloride sensitivity across major taxonomic groups (Cladocera, Cyclopoida, and Calanoida); and (3) weaker loss of functional than taxonomic diversity. Overall, our study demonstrates that aggregate properties of zooplankton communities can be adversely affected at chloride concentrations relevant to anthropogenic salinization in lakes.Peer reviewe

Social Pedagogy: Developing and Maintaining Multi-Disciplinary Relationships in Residential Child Care

The task of building and maintaining effective multi-disciplinary relationships is a constant challenge for the residential child care sector in Scotland. The absence of effective multi-disciplinary collaboration has been cited regularly as a contributing factor to instances of poor and problematic practice. Social pedagogy has much to offer in terms of enabling the residential child care sector to address some of these issues and assist with the task of establishing effective multi-disciplinary relationships. This article will explore how this can be achieved in practice, drawing on research based on multi-disciplinary social pedagogy training delivered in Scotland. The evidence demonstrates that social pedagogy can begin to break down the very real barriers that often prevent residential child care practitioners from developing and maintaining multi-disciplinary relationships. It can assist with the task of developing a shared language and understanding; the creation of a clear focus on the developmental needs of children and young people; and a more nuanced approach to dealing with issues of risk. The messages from this article will hold relevance for the professions of residential child care, health and education and be applicable to practitioners throughout Europe and beyond

Segmented flow generator for serial crystallography at the European X-ray free electron laser

Serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) with X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) allows structure determination of membrane proteins and time-resolved crystallography. Common liquid sample delivery continuously jets the protein crystal suspension into the path of the XFEL, wasting a vast amount of sample due to the pulsed nature of all current XFEL sources. The European XFEL (EuXFEL) delivers femtosecond (fs) X-ray pulses in trains spaced 100 ms apart whereas pulses within trains are currently separated by 889 ns. Therefore, continuous sample delivery via fast jets wastes >99% of sample. Here, we introduce a microfluidic device delivering crystal laden droplets segmented with an immiscible oil reducing sample waste and demonstrate droplet injection at the EuXFEL compatible with high pressure liquid delivery of an SFX experiment. While achieving ~60% reduction in sample waste, we determine the structure of the enzyme 3-deoxy-D-manno-octulosonate-8-phosphate synthase from microcrystals delivered in droplets revealing distinct structural features not previously reported