Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate

Central ideas from thermal biology, including thermal performance curves and tolerances, have been widely used to evaluate how changes in environmental means and variances generate changes in fitness, selection and microevolution in response to climate change. We summarize the opportunities and challenges for extending this approach to understanding the consequences of extreme climatic events. Using statistical tools from extreme value theory, we show how distributions of thermal extremes vary with latitude, time scale and climate change. Second, we review how performance curves and tolerances have been used to predict the fitness and evolutionary responses to climate change and climate gradients. Performance curves and tolerances change with prior thermal history and with time scale, complicating their use for predicting responses to thermal extremes. Third, we describe several recent case studies showing how infrequent extreme events can have outsized effects on the evolution of performance curves and heat tolerance. A key issue is whether thermal extremes affect reproduction or survival, and how these combine to determine overall fitness. We argue that a greater focus on tails-in the distribution of environmental extremes, and in the upper ends of performance curves-is needed to understand the consequences of extreme events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'

The Well‐Temperatured Biologist: (American Society of Naturalists Presidential Address)

Abstract: Temperature provides a powerful theme for exploring environmental adaptation at all levels of biological organization, from molecular kinetics to organismal fitness to global biogeography. First, the thermodynamic properties that underlie biochemical kinetics and protein stability determine the overall thermal sensitivity of rate processes. Consequently, a single quantitative framework can assess variation in thermal sensitivity of ectotherms in terms of single amino acid substitutions, quantitative genetics, and interspecific differences. Thermodynamic considerations predict that higher optimal temperatures will result in greater maximal fitness at the optimum, a pattern seen both in interspecific comparisons and in withinpopulation genotypic variation. Second, the temperaturesize rule (increased developmental temperature causes decreased adult body size) is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in ectotherms. Mechanistic models can correctly predict the rule in some taxa, but lab and field studies show that rapid evolution can weaken or even break the rule. Third, phenotypic and evolutionary models for thermal sensitivity can be combined to explore potential fitness consequences of climate warming for terrestrial ectotherms. Recent analyses suggest that climate change will have greater negative fitness consequences for tropical than for temperate ectotherms, because many tropical species have relatively narrow thermal breadths and smaller thermal safety margins

Host–Parasite Interactions and the Evolution of Gene Expression

Interactions between hosts and parasites provide an ongoing source of selection that promotes the evolution of a variety of features in the interacting species. Here, we use a genetically explicit mathematical model to explore how patterns of gene expression evolve at genetic loci responsible for host resistance and parasite infection. Our results reveal the striking yet intuitive conclusion that gene expression should evolve along very different trajectories in the two interacting species. Specifically, host resistance loci should frequently evolve to co-express alleles, whereas parasite infection loci should evolve to express only a single allele. This result arises because hosts that co-express resistance alleles are able to recognize and clear a greater diversity of parasite genotypes. By the same token, parasites that co-express antigen or elicitor alleles are more likely to be recognized and cleared by the host, and this favours the expression of only a single allele. Our model provides testable predictions that can help interpret accumulating data on expression levels for genes relevant to host−parasite interactions

Size, temperature, and fitness: three rules

ABSTRACT Question: Associations of body size and of body temperature with fitness have complex relationships for ectotherms, but three general patterns are known. Bigger is better: Larger body size is frequently associated with greater fitness within populations. Hotter is smaller: Smaller adult body sizes typically result from development at higher temperatures. Hotter is better: Greater maximal performance at the optimal temperature is frequently associated with higher optimal temperatures. How do we -or even can we -reconcile these three apparently conflicting empirical patterns about temperature, size, and fitness of ectotherms? Methods: We summarize available evidence supporting or contradicting these three rules. We present a conceptual framework that describes how developmental and adult body temperatures affect causal connections among size, performance, and key components of fitness. Findings: There is strong empirical support for Bigger is better and Hotter is smaller (≥ 79% of studies/estimates), primarily for terrestrial insects, reptiles, and annual plants. Evidence regarding Hotter is better is still limited (and primarily from terrestrial insects), but most available information supports the rule. Analyses of counterexamples are particularly instructive. The rules operate at different levels. Bigger is better describes phenotypic variation within populations. Hotter is smaller describes phenotypic plasticity of a genotype. Hotter is better describes evolved variation in reaction norms among genotypes or between species. Conclusions: We unify these three rules into a path diagram that describes how temperature impacts critical rate processes throughout the life cycle. Adult body size and development time are key traits that are not only consequences of temperature-dependent processes, but also are causes of variation in fitness. An unresolved issue involves how to determine the appropriate fitness metric for a particular ecological context (population and environment). For example, the intrinsic rate of population increase (r) is strongly influenced by generation time (and development time), whereas net reproductive rate (R 0 ) is strongly influenced by fecundity (and size). Because the relative strengths of different paths contributing to fitness change differ for these fitness metrics, the choice of metric can affect whether Hotter is better is 'better' than Bigger is better

Historical changes in thermoregulatory traits of alpine butterflies reveal complex ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change

Abstract Background Trait evolution and plasticity are expected to interactively influence responses to climate change, but rapid changes in and increased variability of temperature may limit evolutionary responses. We use historical specimens to document changes in the size and thermoregulatory traits of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, in Colorado, USA over the past 60 years (1953–2012). We quantify forewing wing length, ventral wing melanin that increases solar absorption, and the length of thorax setae that reduces convective heat loss. Results The mean of all three traits has increased during this time period despite climate warming. Phenological shifts may have extended the active season earlier at low elevations and later at high elevations, increasing exposure to cool temperatures and selecting for increases in thermoregulatory traits. Fitness increases at higher elevations due to warming could also increase thermoregulatory traits. Warmer temperatures during pupal development and later flight dates in the season are associated with decreased wing melanin, indicating a role of phenotypic plasticity in historical trait changes. Conclusions Phenotypic shifts result from a complex interplay of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change. Environmental variability within and across seasons can limit the evolutionary responses of populations to increasing mean temperatures during climate change

Hotter Is Better and Broader: Thermal Sensitivity of Fitness in a Population of Bacteriophages

Hotter is better is a hypothesis of thermal adaptation that posits that the rate-depressing effects of low temperature on biochemical reactions cannot be overcome by physiological plasticity or genetic adaptation. If so, then genotypes or populations adapted to warmer temperatures will have higher maximum growth rates than those adapted to low temperatures. Here we test hotter is better by measuring thermal reaction norms for intrinsic rate of population growth among an intraspecific collection of bacteriophages recently isolated from nature. Consistent with hotter is better, we find that phage genotypes with higher optimal temperatures have higher maximum growth rates. Unexpectedly, we also found that hotter is broader, meaning that the phages with the highest optimal temperatures also have the greatest temperature ranges. We found that the temperature sensitivity of fitness for phages is similar to that for insects

Visualizing genetic constraints

Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is a common way to study the sources of variation in a high-dimensional data set. Typically, the leading principal components are used to understand the variation in the data or to reduce the dimension of the data for subsequent analysis. The remaining principal components are ignored since they explain little of the variation in the data. However, evolutionary biologists gain important insights from these low variation directions. Specifically, they are interested in directions of low genetic variability that are biologically interpretable. These directions are called genetic constraints and indicate directions in which a trait cannot evolve through selection. Here, we propose studying the subspace spanned by low variance principal components by determining vectors in this subspace that are simplest. Our method and accompanying graphical displays enhance the biologist's ability to visualize the subspace and identify interpretable directions of low genetic variability that align with simple directions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS603 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Variation in Continuous Reaction Norms: Quantifying Directions of Biological Interest

Abstract: Thermal performance curves are an example of continuous reaction norm curves of common shape. Three modes of variation in these curvesvertical shift, horizontal shift, and generalistspecialist tradeoffsare of special interest to evolutionary biologists. Since two of these modes are nonlinear, traditional methods such as principal components analysis fail to decompose the variation into biological modes and to quantify the variation associated with each mode. Here we present the results of a new method, template mode of variation (TMV), that decomposes the variation into predetermined modes of variation for a particular set of thermal performance curves. We illustrate the method using data on thermal sensitivity of growth rate in Pieris rapae caterpillars. The TMV model explains 67% of the variation in thermal performance curves among families; generalistspecialist tradeoffs account for 38% of the total betweenfamily variation. The TMV method implemented here is applicable to both differences in mean and patterns of variation, and it can be used with either phenotypic or quantitative genetic data for thermal performance curves or other continuous reaction norms that have a template shape with a single maximum. The TMV approach may also apply to growth trajectories, agespecific lifehistory traits, and other functionvalued traits

Evolutionary Divergence in Thermal Sensitivity and Diapause of Field and Laboratory Populations of Manduca sexta

The tobacco hornworm Manduca sexta has been an important model system in insect biology for more than half a century. Here we report the evolutionary divergence in thermal sensitivity and diapause initiation between field and laboratory populations that were separated for more than 35 yr (>240 laboratory generations) and that are descendants from the same field populations in central North Carolina. At intermediate rearing temperatures (20 degrees-25 degrees C), mean body size was significantly larger and development time significantly faster in the laboratory than in the field populations. At higher temperatures (30 degrees -35 degrees C), these mean differences between populations were reduced or eliminated, and larval survival at 35 degrees C was significantly lower in the laboratory population than in the field population. F(1) crosses had survival and development time to wandering similar to the field population times at both 25 degrees and 35 degrees C; body mass at wandering for F(1) crosses was intermediate compared with that of the field and laboratory populations. Comparisons with earlier field and laboratory studies suggest evolutionary reductions in thermal tolerance and performance at high temperatures in the laboratory population. The critical photoperiod initiating diapause in field populations in North Carolina did not change detectably between the 1960s and 2005. In contrast, the laboratory population has evolved a reduced tendency to diapause under short-day conditions, relative to the field population