Event count distributions from renewal processes : fast computation of probabilities

Discrete distributions derived from renewal processes, i.e. distributions of the number of events by some time t are beginning to be used in management science, econometrics and health sciences. A new fast method is presented for computation of the probabilities for these distributions. This will enable practitioners in management science to exploit this rich class of models. We calculate the count probabilities by repeatedly convolving the discretized distribution, and then correct them using Richardson extrapolation. When just one probability is required, a second algorithm is described, an adaptation of De Pril's method, in which the computation time does not depend on the ordinality, so that even high-order probabilities can be rapidly found. Any survival distribution can be used to model the inter-arrival times, which gives models with great flexibility for modelling both underdispersed and overdispersed data. This work could pave the way for the routine use of these distributions as an additional tool for modelling event count data. An empirical example using fertility data illustrates the use of the method and has been fully implemented using an R package Countr developed by the authors and available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)

A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores

The paper presents a model for forecasting association football scores. The model uses a Weibull inter-arrival-times-based count process and a copula to produce a bivariate distribution of the numbers of goals scored by the home and away teams in a match. We test it against a variety of alternatives, including the simpler Poisson distribution-based model and an independent version of our model. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is illustrated using, first, calibration curves, then a Kelly-type betting strategy that is applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market and to the over–under 2.5 goals market. The new model provides an improved fit to the data relative to previous models, and results in positive returns to betting

Fusionless surgery in early-onset scoliosis

AbstractBackgroundSurgical treatment of early-onset scoliosis has greatly developed in recent years. Early-onset scoliosis covers a variety of etiologies (idiopathic, neurologic, dystrophic, malformative, etc.) with onset before the age of 5 years. Progression and severity threaten respiratory development and may result in respiratory failure in adulthood. Many surgical techniques have been developed in recent years, aiming to protect spinal and thoracic development.Material and methodsPresent techniques are based on one of two main principles. The first consists in posterior distraction of the spine in its concavity (single growing rod, or vertical expandable prosthetic titanium rib [VEPTR]), or on either side (dual rod); this requires iterative surgery, for lengthening, unless motorized using energy provided by a magnetic system. The second option is to use spinal growth force to lengthen the assembly; these techniques (Luque Trolley, Shilla), using a sliding assembly, are known as growth guidance.ResultsThese techniques are effective in controlling early scoliotic deformity, and to some extent restore spinal growth. However, they show a high rate of complications: infection, rod breakage, spinal fixation pull out and, above all, progressive spinal stiffness, reducing long-term efficacy. Respiratory gain is harder to assess, as thoracic expansion does not systematically improve respiratory function, particularly due to impaired compliance of the thoracic cage

Electrical tuning of elastic wave propagation in nanomechanical lattices at MHz frequencies

Nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS) that operate in the megahertz (MHz) regime allow energy transducibility between different physical domains. For example, they convert optical or electrical signals into mechanical motions and vice versa. This coupling of different physical quantities leads to frequency-tunable NEMS resonators via electromechanical non-linearities. NEMS platforms with single- or low-degrees of freedom have been employed to demonstrate quantum-like effects, such as mode cooling, mechanically induced transparency, Rabi oscillation, two-mode squeezing and phonon lasing. Periodic arrays of NEMS resonators with architected unit cells enable fundamental studies of lattice-based solid-state phenomena, such as bandgaps, energy transport, non-linear dynamics and localization, and topological properties, directly transferrable to on-chip devices. Here we describe one-dimensional, non-linear, nanoelectromechanical lattices (NEML) with active control of the frequency band dispersion in the radio-frequency domain (10–30 MHz). The design of our systems is inspired by NEMS-based phonon waveguides and includes the voltage-induced frequency tuning of the individual resonators. Our NEMLs consist of a periodic arrangement of mechanically coupled, free-standing nanomembranes with circular clamped boundaries. This design forms a flexural phononic crystal with a well-defined bandgap, 1.8 MHz wide. The application of a d.c. gate voltage creates voltage-dependent on-site potentials, which can significantly shift the frequency bands of the device. Additionally, a dynamic modulation of the voltage triggers non-linear effects, which induce the formation of a phononic bandgap in the acoustic branch, analogous to Peierls transition in condensed matter. The gating approach employed here makes the devices more compact than recently proposed systems, whose tunability mostly relies on materials’ compliance and mechanical non-linearities

Solution structure of the N-terminal dsRBD of Drosophila ADAR and interaction studies with RNA

Adenosine deaminases that act on RNA (ADAR) catalyze adenosine to inosine (A-to-I) editing in double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) substrates. Inosine is read as guanosine by the translation machinery; therefore A-to-I editing events in coding sequences may result in recoding genetic information. Whereas vertebrates have two catalytically active enzymes, namely ADAR1 and ADAR2, Drosophila has a single ADAR protein (dADAR) related to ADAR2. The structural determinants controlling substrate recognition and editing of a specific adenosine within dsRNA substrates are only partially understood. Here, we report the solution structure of the N-terminal dsRNA binding domain (dsRBD) of dADAR and use NMR chemical shift perturbations to identify the protein surface involved in RNA binding. Additionally, we show that Drosophila ADAR edits the R/G site in the mammalian GluR-2 pre-mRNA which is naturally modified by both ADAR1 and ADAR2. We then constructed a model showing how dADAR dsRBD1 binds to the GluR-2 R/G stem-loop. This model revealed that most side chains interacting with the RNA sugar-phosphate backbone need only small displacement to adapt for dsRNA binding and are thus ready to bind to their dsRNA target. It also predicts that dADAR dsRBD1 would bind to dsRNA with less sequence specificity than dsRBDs of ADAR2. Altogether, this study gives new insights into dsRNA substrate recognition by Drosophila ADAR

Tolllike receptor 4 (TLR4) polymorphisms in Tunisian patients with Crohn's disease: genotype-phenotype correlation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The immune responses to bacterial products through the pattern recognition receptor (PRR) play a pivotal role in pathogenesis of Crohn's disease. A recent study described an association between CD and some gene coding for bacterial receptor like NOD2/CARD15 gene and TLR4. In this study, we sought to determine whether TLR4 gene was associated with Crohn's disease (CD) among the Tunisian population and its correlation with clinical manifestation of the disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>90 patients with CD and 80 healthy individuals are genotyped for the <it>Asp299Gly </it>and <it>Thr399Ile </it>polymorphisms by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The allele and genotype frequency of the TLR4 polymorphisms did not differ between patients and controls. The genotype-phenotype correlation permitted to show that the <it>Thr399Ile </it>polymorphism was associated with early onset disease.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>this study reported the absence of association between CD and TLR4 gene in the Tunisian population, but this gene could play a role in clinical expression of the disease.</p

Novel deletion alleles carrying CYP21A1P/A2 chimeric genes in Brazilian patients with 21-hydroxylase deficiency

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Congenital adrenal hyperplasia due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency is caused by deletions, large gene conversions or mutations in <it>CYP21A2 </it>gene. The human gene is located at 6p21.3 within a <it>locus </it>containing the genes for putative serine/threonine Kinase <it>RP</it>, complement <it>C4</it>, steroid 21-hydroxylase <it>CYP21 </it>tenascin <it>TNX</it>, normally, in a duplicated cluster known as RCCX module. The <it>CYP21 </it>extra copy is a pseudogene (<it>CYP21A1P</it>). In Brazil, 30-kb deletion forming monomodular alleles that carry chimeric <it>CYP21A1P/A2 </it>genes corresponds to ~9% of disease-causing alleles. Such alleles are considered to result from unequal crossovers within the bimodular <it>C4/CYP21 locus</it>. Depending on the localization of recombination breakpoint, different alleles can be generated conferring the locus high degree of allelic variability. The purpose of the study was to investigate the variability of deleted alleles in patients with 21-hydroxylase deficiency.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used different techniques to investigate the variability of 30-kb deletion alleles in patients with 21-hydroxylase deficiency. Alleles were first selected after Southern blotting. The composition of <it>CYP21A1P/A2 </it>chimeric genes was investigated by ASO-PCR and MLPA analyses followed by sequencing to refine the location of recombination breakpoints. Twenty patients carrying at least one allele with <it>C4/CYP21 </it>30-kb deletion were included in the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An allele carrying a <it>CYP21A1P/A2 </it>chimeric gene was found unusually associated to a <it>C4B/C4A </it><it>Taq </it>I 6.4-kb fragment, generally associated to <it>C4B </it>and <it>CYP21A1P </it>deletions. A novel haplotype bearing both p.P34L and p.H62L, novel and rare mutations, respectively, was identified in exon 1, however p.P30L, the most frequent pseudogene-derived mutation in this exon, was absent. Four unrelated patients showed this haplotype. Absence of p.P34L in <it>CYP21A1P </it>of normal controls indicated that it is not derived from pseudogene. In addition, the combination of different approaches revealed nine haplotypes for deleted 21-hydroxylase deficiency alleles.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study demonstrated high allelic variability for 30-kb deletion in patients with 21-hydroxylase deficiency indicating that a founder effect might be improbable for most monomodular alleles carrying <it>CYP21A1P/A2 </it>chimeric genes in Brazil.</p