Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The World Health Organisation estimates that by 2030 there will be approximately 350 million people with type 2 diabetes. Associated with renal complications, heart disease, stroke and peripheral vascular disease, early identification of patients with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or those at an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes is an important challenge. We sought to systematically review and critically assess the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting the risk of having undiagnosed (prevalent) or future risk of developing (incident) type 2 diabetes in adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify studies published before May 2011 that describe the development of models combining two or more variables to predict the risk of prevalent or incident type 2 diabetes. We extracted key information that describes aspects of developing a prediction model including study design, sample size and number of events, outcome definition, risk predictor selection and coding, missing data, model-building strategies and aspects of performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty-nine studies comprising 43 risk prediction models were included. Seventeen studies (44%) reported the development of models to predict incident type 2 diabetes, whilst 15 studies (38%) described the derivation of models to predict prevalent type 2 diabetes. In nine studies (23%), the number of events per variable was less than ten, whilst in fourteen studies there was insufficient information reported for this measure to be calculated. The number of candidate risk predictors ranged from four to sixty-four, and in seven studies it was unclear how many risk predictors were considered. A method, not recommended to select risk predictors for inclusion in the multivariate model, using statistical significance from univariate screening was carried out in eight studies (21%), whilst the selection procedure was unclear in ten studies (26%). Twenty-one risk prediction models (49%) were developed by categorising all continuous risk predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not reported in 16 studies (41%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found widespread use of poor methods that could jeopardise model development, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorisation of continuous risk predictors and poor handling of missing data. The use of poor methods affects the reliability of the prediction model and ultimately compromises the accuracy of the probability estimates of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or the predicted risk of developing type 2 diabetes. In addition, many studies were characterised by a generally poor level of reporting, with many key details to objectively judge the usefulness of the models often omitted.</p

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Systematic Review of Potential Health Risks Posed by Pharmaceutical, Occupational and Consumer Exposures to Metallic and Nanoscale Aluminum, Aluminum Oxides, Aluminum Hydroxide and Its Soluble Salts

Aluminum (Al) is a ubiquitous substance encountered both naturally (as the third most abundant element) and intentionally (used in water, foods, pharmaceuticals, and vaccines); it is also present in ambient and occupational airborne particulates. Existing data underscore the importance of Al physical and chemical forms in relation to its uptake, accumulation, and systemic bioavailability. The present review represents a systematic examination of the peer-reviewed literature on the adverse health effects of Al materials published since a previous critical evaluation compiled by Krewski et al. (2007). Challenges encountered in carrying out the present review reflected the experimental use of different physical and chemical Al forms, different routes of administration, and different target organs in relation to the magnitude, frequency, and duration of exposure. Wide variations in diet can result in Al intakes that are often higher than the World Health Organization provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI), which is based on studies with Al citrate. Comparing daily dietary Al exposures on the basis of “total Al”assumes that gastrointestinal bioavailability for all dietary Al forms is equivalent to that for Al citrate, an approach that requires validation. Current occupational exposure limits (OELs) for identical Al substances vary as much as 15-fold. The toxicity of different Al forms depends in large measure on their physical behavior and relative solubility in water. The toxicity of soluble Al forms depends upon the delivered dose of Al+ 3 to target tissues. Trivalent Al reacts with water to produce bidentate superoxide coordination spheres [Al(O2)(H2O4)+ 2 and Al(H2O)6 + 3] that after complexation with O2•−, generate Al superoxides [Al(O2•)](H2O5)]+ 2. Semireduced AlO2• radicals deplete mitochondrial Fe and promote generation of H2O2, O2 • − and OH•. Thus, it is the Al+ 3-induced formation of oxygen radicals that accounts for the oxidative damage that leads to intrinsic apoptosis. In contrast, the toxicity of the insoluble Al oxides depends primarily on their behavior as particulates. Aluminum has been held responsible for human morbidity and mortality, but there is no consistent and convincing evidence to associate the Al found in food and drinking water at the doses and chemical forms presently consumed by people living in North America and Western Europe with increased risk for Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). Neither is there clear evidence to show use of Al-containing underarm antiperspirants or cosmetics increases the risk of AD or breast cancer. Metallic Al, its oxides, and common Al salts have not been shown to be either genotoxic or carcinogenic. Aluminum exposures during neonatal and pediatric parenteral nutrition (PN) can impair bone mineralization and delay neurological development. Adverse effects to vaccines with Al adjuvants have occurred; however, recent controlled trials found that the immunologic response to certain vaccines with Al adjuvants was no greater, and in some cases less than, that after identical vaccination without Al adjuvants. The scientific literature on the adverse health effects of Al is extensive. Health risk assessments for Al must take into account individual co-factors (e.g., age, renal function, diet, gastric pH). Conclusions from the current review point to the need for refinement of the PTWI, reduction of Al contamination in PN solutions, justification for routine addition of Al to vaccines, and harmonization of OELs for Al substances

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency–Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research

The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global antimicrobial and biocide resistance: An AMR Insights global perspective

Copyright © The Author(s) 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic presents a serious public health challenge in all countries. However, repercussions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections on future global health are still being investigated, including the pandemic’s potential effect on the emergence and spread of global antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Critically ill COVID-19 patients may develop severe complications, which may predispose patients to infection with nosocomial bacterial and/or fungal pathogens, requiring the extensive use of antibiotics. However, antibiotics may also be inappropriately used in milder cases of COVID-19 infection. Further, concerns such as increased biocide use, antimicrobial stewardship/infection control, AMR awareness, the need for diagnostics (including rapid and point-of-care diagnostics) and the usefulness of vaccination could all be components shaping the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this publication, the authors present a brief overview of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated issues that could influence the pandemic’s effect on global AMR

From gut dysbiosis to altered brain function and mental illness: mechanisms and pathways

The human body hosts an enormous abundance and diversity of microbes, which perform a range of essential and beneficial functions. Our appreciation of the importance of these microbial communities to many aspects of human physiology has grown dramatically in recent years. We know, for example, that animals raised in a germ-free environment exhibit substantially altered immune and metabolic function, while the disruption of commensal microbiota in humans is associated with the development of a growing number of diseases. Evidence is now emerging that, through interactions with the gut-brain axis, the bidirectional communication system between the central nervous system and the gastrointestinal tract, the gut microbiome can also influence neural development, cognition and behaviour, with recent evidence that changes in behaviour alter gut microbiota composition, while modifications of the microbiome can induce depressive-like behaviours. Although an association between enteropathy and certain psychiatric conditions has long been recognized, it now appears that gut microbes represent direct mediators of psychopathology. Here, we examine roles of gut microbiome in shaping brain development and neurological function, and the mechanisms by which it can contribute to mental illness. Further, we discuss how the insight provided by this new and exciting field of research can inform care and provide a basis for the design of novel, microbiota-targeted, therapies.GB Rogers, DJ Keating, RL Young, M-L Wong, J Licinio, and S Wesseling

A new era for understanding amyloid structures and disease

The aggregation of proteins into amyloid fibrils and their deposition into plaques and intracellular inclusions is the hallmark of amyloid disease. The accumulation and deposition of amyloid fibrils, collectively known as amyloidosis, is associated with many pathological conditions that can be associated with ageing, such as Alzheimer disease, Parkinson disease, type II diabetes and dialysis-related amyloidosis. However, elucidation of the atomic structure of amyloid fibrils formed from their intact protein precursors and how fibril formation relates to disease has remained elusive. Recent advances in structural biology techniques, including cryo-electron microscopy and solid-state NMR spectroscopy, have finally broken this impasse. The first near-atomic-resolution structures of amyloid fibrils formed in vitro, seeded from plaque material and analysed directly ex vivo are now available. The results reveal cross-β structures that are far more intricate than anticipated. Here, we describe these structures, highlighting their similarities and differences, and the basis for their toxicity. We discuss how amyloid structure may affect the ability of fibrils to spread to different sites in the cell and between organisms in a prion-like manner, along with their roles in disease. These molecular insights will aid in understanding the development and spread of amyloid diseases and are inspiring new strategies for therapeutic intervention

A new class of glycomimetic drugs to prevent free fatty acid-induced endothelial dysfunction

Background: Carbohydrates play a major role in cell signaling in many biological processes. We have developed a set of glycomimetic drugs that mimic the structure of carbohydrates and represent a novel source of therapeutics for endothelial dysfunction, a key initiating factor in cardiovascular complications. Purpose: Our objective was to determine the protective effects of small molecule glycomimetics against free fatty acid­induced endothelial dysfunction, focusing on nitric oxide (NO) and oxidative stress pathways. Methods: Four glycomimetics were synthesized by the stepwise transformation of 2,5­dihydroxybenzoic acid to a range of 2,5­substituted benzoic acid derivatives, incorporating the key sulfate groups to mimic the interactions of heparan sulfate. Endothelial function was assessed using acetylcholine­induced, endotheliumdependent relaxation in mouse thoracic aortic rings using wire myography. Human umbilical vein endothelial cell (HUVEC) behavior was evaluated in the presence or absence of the free fatty acid, palmitate, with or without glycomimetics (1µM). DAF­2 and H2DCF­DA assays were used to determine nitric oxide (NO) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, respectively. Lipid peroxidation colorimetric and antioxidant enzyme activity assays were also carried out. RT­PCR and western blotting were utilized to measure Akt, eNOS, Nrf­2, NQO­1 and HO­1 expression. Results: Ex vivo endothelium­dependent relaxation was significantly improved by the glycomimetics under palmitate­induced oxidative stress. In vitro studies showed that the glycomimetics protected HUVECs against the palmitate­induced oxidative stress and enhanced NO production. We demonstrate that the protective effects of pre­incubation with glycomimetics occurred via upregulation of Akt/eNOS signaling, activation of the Nrf2/ARE pathway, and suppression of ROS­induced lipid peroxidation. Conclusion: We have developed a novel set of small molecule glycomimetics that protect against free fatty acidinduced endothelial dysfunction and thus, represent a new category of therapeutic drugs to target endothelial damage, the first line of defense against cardiovascular disease