32 research outputs found
Monitoring water discharge and floodplain connectivity for the northern Andes utilizing satellite data: A tool for river planning and science-based decision-making
River discharge data and magnitudes of floods are often not readily available for decision makers of many developing nations, including Colombia. And this while flooding for these regions is often devastating, causing many fatalities and insurmountable damage to the most vulnerable communities. During the we season, in strong La Nina years, infrastructural damages of over $US 7.2 billion have occurred. Mitigation of such natural disasters lacks data-supported scientific approaches for evaluating river response to extreme climate events. Here, we propose a satellite-based technique to measure river discharge at selected sites for the main northern Andean River, the Magdalena. This method has the advantage of back calculating daily river discharges over a period of two decades, and thus making it possible to calculate return intervals of significant flood events. The study shows that satellite based river discharges well capture a) the inter-annual variability of river discharge; b) the natural seasonality of water discharge along the floodplains; and c) peak discharges that were observed during La Nina conditions between 2008 and 2011. The last is likely more accurate compared to ground-based gauging stations, as ground-based stations tend to overflow during large flood events and as such are hampered to accurately monitor peak discharges. Furthermore, we show that these derived discharges can form the base to study river-floodplain connectivity, providing environmental decision makers with a technique that makes it possible to better monitor river and ecosystem processes
Large-scale coastal and fluvial models constrain the late Holocene evolution of the Ebro Delta
© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth Surface Dynamics 5 (2017): 585-603, doi:10.5194/esurf-5-585-2017.The distinctive plan-view shape of the Ebro Delta coast reveals a rich morphologic history. The degree to which the form and depositional history of the Ebro and other deltas represent autogenic (internal) dynamics or allogenic (external) forcing remains a prominent challenge for paleo-environmental reconstructions. Here we use simple coastal and fluvial morphodynamic models to quantify paleo-environmental changes affecting the Ebro Delta over the late Holocene. Our findings show that these models are able to broadly reproduce the Ebro Delta morphology, with simple fluvial and wave climate histories. Based on numerical model experiments and the preserved and modern shape of the Ebro Delta plain, we estimate that a phase of rapid shoreline progradation began approximately 2100 years BP, requiring approximately a doubling in coarse-grained fluvial sediment supply to the delta. River profile simulations suggest that an instantaneous and sustained increase in coarse-grained sediment supply to the delta requires a combined increase in both flood discharge and sediment supply from the drainage basin. The persistence of rapid delta progradation throughout the last 2100 years suggests an anthropogenic control on sediment supply and flood intensity. Using proxy records of the North Atlantic Oscillation, we do not find evidence that changes in wave climate aided this delta expansion. Our findings highlight how scenario-based investigations of deltaic systems using simple models can assist first-order quantitative paleo-environmental reconstructions, elucidating the effects of past human influence and climate change, and allowing a better understanding of the future of deltaic landforms.This study was supported by NSF grant
EAR-0952146
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Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system
The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human–natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human–natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human–natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together
Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling
Modeling is essential to characterize and explore complex societal and environmental issues in systematic and collaborative ways. Socio-environmental systems (SES) modeling integrates knowledge and perspectives into conceptual and computational tools that explicitly recognize how human decisions affect the environment. Depending on the modeling purpose, many SES modelers also realize that involvement of stakeholders and experts is fundamental to support social learning and decision-making processes for achieving improved environmental and social outcomes. The contribution of this paper lies in identifying and formulating grand challenges that need to be overcome to accelerate the development and adaptation of SES modeling. Eight challenges are delineated: bridging epistemologies across disciplines; multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment and management; scales and scaling issues; combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data; furthering the adoption and impacts of SES modeling on policy; capturing structural changes; representing human dimensions in SES; and leveraging new data types and sources. These challenges limit our ability to effectively use SES modeling to provide the knowledge and information essential for supporting decision making. Whereas some of these challenges are not unique to SES modeling and may be pervasive in other scientific fields, they still act as barriers as well as research opportunities for the SES modeling community. For each challenge, we outline basic steps that can be taken to surmount the underpinning barriers. Thus, the paper identifies priority research areas in SES modeling, chiefly related to progressing modeling products, processes and practices
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The Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET v2.0) for improved remote sensing analysis of coastal flooding
Remote sensing analysis is routinely used to map flooding extent either retrospectively or in near-real time. For flood emergency response, remote-sensing-based flood mapping is highly valuable as it can offer continued observational information about the flood extent over large geographical domains. Information about the floodwater depth across the inundated domain is important for damage assessment, rescue, and prioritizing of relief resource allocation, but cannot be readily estimated from remote sensing analysis. The Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET) was developed to augment remote sensing analysis by calculating water depth based solely on an inundation map with an associated digital elevation model (DEM). The tool was shown to be accurate and was used in flood response activations by the Global Flood Partnership. Here we present a new version of the tool, FwDET v2.0, which enables water depth estimation for coastal flooding. FwDET v2.0 features a new flood boundary identification scheme which accounts for the lack of confinement of coastal flood domains at the shoreline. A new algorithm is used to calculate the local floodwater elevation for each cell, which improves the tool's runtime by a factor of 15 and alleviates inaccurate local boundary assignment across permanent water bodies. FwDET v2.0 is evaluated against physically based hydrodynamic simulations in both riverine and coastal case studies. The results show good correspondence, with an average difference of 0.18 and 0.31 m for the coastal (using a 1 m DEM) and riverine (using a 10 m DEM) case studies, respectively. A FwDET v2.0 application of using remote-sensing-derived flood maps is presented for three case studies. These case studies showcase FwDET v2.0 ability to efficiently provide a synoptic assessment of floodwater. Limitations include challenges in obtaining high-resolution DEMs and increases in uncertainty when applied for highly fragmented flood inundation domains.</p
Metabolome Based Reaction Graphs of M. tuberculosis and M. leprae: A Comparative Network Analysis
BACKGROUND: Several types of networks, such as transcriptional, metabolic or protein-protein interaction networks of various organisms have been constructed, that have provided a variety of insights into metabolism and regulation. Here, we seek to exploit the reaction-based networks of three organisms for comparative genomics. We use concepts from spectral graph theory to systematically determine how differences in basic metabolism of organisms are reflected at the systems level and in the overall topological structures of their metabolic networks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Metabolome-based reaction networks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium leprae and Escherichia coli have been constructed based on the KEGG LIGAND database, followed by graph spectral analysis of the network to identify hubs as well as the sub-clustering of reactions. The shortest and alternate paths in the reaction networks have also been examined. Sub-cluster profiling demonstrates that reactions of the mycolic acid pathway in mycobacteria form a tightly connected sub-cluster. Identification of hubs reveals reactions involving glutamate to be central to mycobacterial metabolism, and pyruvate to be at the centre of the E. coli metabolome. The analysis of shortest paths between reactions has revealed several paths that are shorter than well established pathways. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that severe downsizing of the leprae genome has not significantly altered the global structure of its reaction network but has reduced the total number of alternate paths between its reactions while keeping the shortest paths between them intact. The hubs in the mycobacterial networks that are absent in the human metabolome can be explored as potential drug targets. This work demonstrates the usefulness of constructing metabolome based networks of organisms and the feasibility of their analyses through graph spectral methods. The insights obtained from such studies provide a broad overview of the similarities and differences between organisms, taking comparative genomics studies to a higher dimension
A global network for operational flood risk reduction
Every year riverine flooding affects millions of people in developing countries, due to the large population exposure in the floodplains and the lack of adequate flood protection measures. Preparedness and monitoring are effective ways to reduce flood risk. State-of-the-art technologies relying on satellite remote sensing as well as numerical hydrological and weather predictions can detect and monitor severe flood events at a global scale. This paper describes the emerging role of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP), a global network of scientists, users, private and public organizations active in global flood risk management. Currently, a number of GFP member institutes regularly share results from their experimental products, developed to predict and monitor where and when flooding is taking place in near real-time. GFP flood products have already been used on several occasions by national environmental agencies and humanitarian organizations to support emergency operations and to reduce the overall socio-economic impacts of disasters. This paper describes a range of global flood products developed by GFP partners, and how these provide complementary information to support and improve current global flood risk management for large scale catastrophes. We also discuss existing challenges and ways forward to turn current experimental products into an integrated flood risk management platform to improve rapid access to flood information and increase resilience to flood events at global scale