Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing

We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850-2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage

Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing

We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850-2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage.This work was supported by the research projects CGL2017-82216-R, CGL2017-83866-C3-3-R and PCI2019-103631, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; CROSSDRO project financed by the AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X) - sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation), JPI-Climate co-funded call of the European Commission and INDECIS which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462)

The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

48 Pags.- 1 Tabl.- 18 Figs. The definitive version is available at: http://link.springer.com/journal/382In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador.This work was supported by the EPhysLab (UVIGO-CSIC Associated Unit) and the research projects I-COOP H2O 2013CD0006: “Test multisectorial y actividades demostrativa sobre el potencial desarrollo de sistemas de monitorización de sequías en tiempo real en la región del oeste de Sudamérica” financed by the Spanish National Research Council, CGL2011-27574-CO2-02, CGL2014-52135-C03-01 and Red de variabilidad y cambio climático RECLIM (CGL2014-517221-REDT), financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER, and “LIFE12 ENV/ES/000536-Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (LIFE MEDACC)” financed by the LIFE programme of the European Commission. Cesar Azorin-Molina was supported by the JCI-2011-10263 Grant. Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo was supported by the JCI-2012-12508 Grant. Miquel Tomas-Burguera was supported by a doctoral grant by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and Natalia Martin-Hernandez was supported by a doctoral grant by the Aragón Regional Government. E. Aguilar was funded by the Grant CCI-009-ATN/OC-12439-RG-2012 from the Banco Iberoamericano de Desarrollo.Peer reviewe

Long-term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851-2018)

We analyzed long-term variability and trends in meteorological droughts across Western Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Precipitation data from 199 stations spanning the period 1851-2018 were employed, following homogenisation, to derive SPI-3 and SPI-12 series for each station, together with indices on drought duration and severity. Results reveal a general absence of statistically significant long-term trends in the study domain, with the exception of significant trends at some stations, generally covering short periods. The largest decreasing trends in SPI-3 (i.e. increasing drought conditions) were found for summer in the British and Irish Isles. In general, drought episodes experienced in the last two or three decades have precedents during the last 170 years, emphasising the importance of long records for assessing change. The main characteristic of drought variability in Western Europe is its strong spatial diversity, with regions exhibiting a homogeneous temporal evolution. Notably, the temporal variability of drought in Western Europe is more dominant than long-term trends. This suggests that long-term drought trends cannot be confirmed in Western Europe using precipitation records alone. This study provides a long-term regional assessment of drought variability in Western Europe, which can contribute to better understanding of regional climate change during the past two centuries.This work was supported by the research projects PCIN-2015-220 and CGL2017- 82216-R financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER, IMDROFLOOD financed by the WaterWorks 2014 co-funded call of the European Commission, CROSSDRO financed by the AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X) – sectorial climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation) JPI-Climate co-funded call of the European Commission, INDECIS, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR), FCT (PT) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462), Irish Research Council COALESCE grant 2019/43

Dispersion and release of embelin from electrospun biodegradable, polymeric, membranes

In this work, microfiber meshes containing embelin, a poorly water-soluble bioactive agent, were prepared by solubilizing embelin in a biodegradable and biocompatible polymer matrix of poly(ε-caprolactone) (PCL). Plain or drug-loaded, highly porous, fibrous membranes with a high area-to-volume ratio were obtained by electrospinning. Non-woven microfibrous meshes were formed by uniform bead-free fibers with a mean diameter of 1.2 μm. Non-porous films were obtained by solution casting, and were used for comparison. The drug-loading content of the prepared systems was appropriate for topical applications. The thermal properties revealed that the crystallinity of embelin significantly decreased, the drug having almost completely dissolved in the PCL fibers. The in situ bioavailability of embelin, an antimycotic agent, is an important aspect to consider in topical drug applications. The drug-loaded systems presented different contact areas with the biological environment. When comparing the ability to expose embelin with the biological environment of the prepared systems, drug-loaded fibrous scaffolds showed a higher bioavailability of the bioactive agent because of an increase by 86% in the area-to-volume ratio, providing an effective area per unit mass that was 5.8-fold higher than that of the film. For the meshes, 90% embelin release was observed after 12h of exposure to phosphate-buffered saline, whereas for the films a comparable level of release occurred only after 72h.Fil: Cortez Tornello, Pablo Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigación En Ciencia y Tecnología de Materiales (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Biotecnología; ArgentinaFil: Feresin, Gabriela Egly. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Biotecnología; ArgentinaFil: Tapia, Alejandro. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Biotecnología; ArgentinaFil: Veiga, Itiara G.. Universidade Estadual de Campinas; BrasilFil: Moraes, Ângela M.. Universidade Estadual de Campinas; BrasilFil: Abraham, Gustavo Abel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigación En Ciencia y Tecnología de Materiales (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería; ArgentinaFil: Cuadrado, Teresita Raquel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigación En Ciencia y Tecnología de Materiales (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentin

Double blind, randomized controlled trial, to evaluate the effectiveness of a controlled nitric oxide releasing patch versus meglumine antimoniate in the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis [NCT00317629]

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous Leishmaniasis is a worldwide disease, endemic in 88 countries, that has shown an increasing incidence over the last two decades. So far, pentavalent antimony compounds have been considered the treatment of choice, with a percentage of cure of about 85%. However, the high efficacy of these drugs is counteracted by their many disadvantages and adverse events. Previous studies have shown nitric oxide to be a potential alternative treatment when administered topically with no serious adverse events. However, due to the unstable nitric oxide release, the topical donors needed to be applied frequently, making the adherence to the treatment difficult. The electrospinning technique has allowed the production of a multilayer transdermal patch that produces a continuous and stable nitric oxide release. The main objective of this study is to evaluate this novel nitric oxide topical donor for the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis. METHODS AND DESIGN: A double-blind, randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled clinical trial, including 620 patients from endemic areas for Leishmaniasis in Colombia was designed to investigate whether this patch is as effective as meglumine antimoniate for the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis but with less adverse events. Subjects with ulcers characteristic of cutaneous leishmaniasis will be medically evaluated and laboratory tests and parasitological confirmation performed. After checking the inclusion/exclusion criteria, the patients will be randomly assigned to one of two groups. During 20 days Group 1 will receive simultaneously meglumine antimoniate and placebo of nitric oxide patches while Group 2 will receive placebo of meglumine antimoniate and active nitric oxide patches. During the treatment visits, the medications will be daily administered and the presence of adverse events assessed. During the follow-up, the research group will visit the patients at days 21, 45, 90 and 180. The healing process of the ulcer, the health of the participants, recidivisms and/or reinfection will also be assessed. The evolution of the ulcers will be photographically registered. In case that the effectiveness of the patches is demonstrated, a novel and safe therapeutic alternative for one of the most important public health problems in many countries will be available to patients

Bespoke cationic nano-objects via RAFT aqueous dispersion polymerisation

A range of cationic diblock copolymer nanoparticles are synthesised via polymerisation-induced self-assembly (PISA) using a RAFT aqueous dispersion polymerisation formulation. The cationic character of these nanoparticles can be systematically varied by utilising a binary mixture of two macro-CTAs, namely non-ionic poly(glycerol monomethacrylate) (PGMA) and cationic poly[2-(methacryloyloxy)ethyl]trimethylammonium chloride (PQDMA), with poly(2-hydroxypropyl methacrylate) (PHPMA) being selected as the hydrophobic core-forming block. Thus a series of cationic diblock copolymer nano-objects with the general formula ([1 - n] PGMAx + [n] PQDMAy) - PHPMAz were prepared at 20% w/w solids, where n is the mol fraction of the cationic block and x, y and z are the mean degrees of polymerisation of the non-ionic, cationic and hydrophobic blocks, respectively. These cationic diblock copolymer nanoparticles were analysed in terms of their chemical composition, particle size, morphology and cationic character using 1H NMR spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering (DLS), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and aqueous electrophoresis, respectively. Systematic variation of the above PISA formulation enabled the formation of spheres, worms or vesicles that remain cationic over a wide pH range. However, increasing the cationic character favors the formation of kinetically-trapped spheres, since it leads to more effective steric stabilisation which prevents sphere-sphere fusion. Furthermore, cationic worms form a soft free-standing gel at 25 °C that undergoes reversible degelation on cooling, as indicated by variable temperature oscillatory rheology studies. Finally, the antimicrobial activity of this thermo-responsive cationic worm gel towards the well-known pathogen Staphylococcus aureus is examined via direct contact assays

Do CMIP models capture long-term observed annual precipitation trends?

This study provides a long-term (1891-2014) global assessment of precipitation trends using data from two station-based gridded datasets and climate model outputs evolved through the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). Our analysis employs a variety of modeling groups that incorporate low- and high-top level members, with the aim of assessing the possible effects of including a well-resolved stratosphere on the model's ability to reproduce long-term observed annual precipitation trends. Results demonstrate that only a few regions show statistically significant differences in precipitation trends between observations and models. Nevertheless, this pattern is mostly caused by the strong interannual variability of precipitation in most of the world regions. Thus, statistically significant model-observation differences on trends (1891-2014) are found at the zonal mean scale. The different model groups clearly fail to reproduce the spatial patterns of annual precipitation trends and the regions where stronger increases or decreases are recorded. This study also stresses that there are no significant differences between low- and high-top models in capturing observed precipitation trends, indicating that having a well-resolved stratosphere has a low impact on the accuracy of precipitation projections

Wind speed variability over the Canary Islands, 1948-2014: focusing on trend differences at the land-ocean interface and below-above the trade-wind inversion layer

This study simultaneously examines wind speed trends at the land?ocean interface, and below?above the trade-wind inversion layer in the Canary Islands and the surrounding Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: a key region for quantifying the variability of trade-winds and its response to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Two homogenized data sources are used: (1) observed wind speed from nine land-based stations (1981?2014), including one mountain weather station (Izaña) located above the trade-wind inversion layer; and (2) simulated wind speed from two atmospheric hindcasts over ocean (i.e., SeaWind I at 30 km for 1948?2014; and SeaWind II at 15 km for 1989?2014). The results revealed a widespread significant negative trend of trade-winds over ocean for 1948?2014, whereas no significant trends were detected for 1989?2014. For this recent period wind speed over land and ocean displayed the same multi-decadal variability and a distinct seasonal trend pattern with a strengthening (late spring and summer; significant in May and August) and weakening (winter?spring?autumn; significant in April and September) of trade-winds. Above the inversion layer at Izaña, we found a predominance of significant positive trends, indicating a decoupled variability and opposite wind speed trends when compared to those reported in boundary layer. The analysis of the Trade Wind Index (TWI), the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the Eastern Atlantic Index (EAI) demonstrated significant correlations with the wind speed variability, revealing that the correlation patterns of the three indices showed a spatio-temporal complementarity in shaping wind speed trends across the Eastern North Atlantic.C. A. -M. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703733 (STILLING project). This research was also supported by the Research Projects: Swedish BECC, MERGE, VR (2014–5320), PCIN-2015-220, CGL2014-52135-C03-01 and Red de variabilidad y cambio climático RECLIM (CGL2014-517221-REDT). M.M is indebted to the Spanish Government for funding through the “Ramón y Cajal” program and supported by Grant PORTIO (BIA2015-70644-R