Predicting ecosystem components in the Gulf of Mexico and their responses to climate variability with a dynamic Bayesian network model

Funding: This research was carried out in part under the auspices of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), a Cooperative Institute of the University of Miami and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, cooperative agreement #NA10OAR4320143. This paper is NOAA IEA Program contribution #2018_4. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Acknowledgments This research was carried out in part under the auspices of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), a Cooperative Institute of the University of Miami and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, cooperative agreement #NA10OAR4320143. This paper is a result of research, supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (NOAA IEA) Program. This paper is NOAA IEA Program contribution #2018_4.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Supersonic combustion engine testbed, heat lightning

The design of a supersonic combustion engine testbed (SCET) aircraft is presented. The hypersonic waverider will utilize both supersonic combustion ramjet (SCRAMjet) and turbofan-ramjet engines. The waverider concept, system integration, electrical power, weight analysis, cockpit, landing skids, and configuration modeling are addressed in the configuration considerations. The subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic aerodynamics are presented along with the aerodynamic stability and landing analysis of the aircraft. The propulsion design considerations include: engine selection, turbofan ramjet inlets, SCRAMjet inlets and the SCRAMjet diffuser. The cooling requirements and system are covered along with the topics of materials and the hydrogen fuel tanks and insulation system. A cost analysis is presented and the appendices include: information about the subsonic wind tunnel test, shock expansion calculations, and an aerodynamic heat flux program

Investigating climate impacts in the Gulf of Mexico with Dynamic Bayesian Networts

The Gulf of Mexico is an ecologically and economically important marine ecosystem that is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogeni c pressures. These complex and interacting pressures, together with the dynamic environment of the Gulf, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. The recent adoption of Bayesian networks to ecology allows for the discovery and quan tification of complex interactions from data after making only a few assumptions about observations of the system. In this study, we apply Bayesian network models, with different levels of structural complexity and a varying number of hidden variables to account for uncertainty when modelling ecosystem dynamics. From these models, we predict focal ecosystem components within the Gulf of Mexico. The predictive ability of the models varied with their structure. The model that performed best was parameterized through data- driven learning techniques and accounted for multispecies associations and their interactions with human and natural pressures over time. Then, we altered sea surface temperature in the best performing model to explore the response of different variables to increased temperature. The magnitude and even direction of predicted responses varied by ecosystem components due to heterogeneity in driving factors and their spatial overlap. Our findings suggest that due to varying species sensitivity to drivers, changes in temperature will potentially lead to trade- offs in terms of population productivity. We were able to discover meaningful interactions between ecosystem components and their environment and show how sensitive these relationships are to climate perturbations, which increases our understanding of the potential future response of the system to increasing temperature. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for additional sources of variation, by incorporating multiple interactions and press ures in the model layout, has the potential for gaining deeper insights into the structure and dynamics of ecosystems

Spatial variability of microzooplankton grazing on phytoplankton in coastal southern Florida, USA

Microzooplankton are considered the primary consumers of phytoplankton in marine environments. Microzooplankton grazing rates on phytoplankton have been studied across the globe, but there are still large regions of the ocean that are understudied, such as sub-tropical coastal oceans. One of these regions is the coastal area around south Florida, USA. We measured microzooplankton grazing rates in two distinct environments around south Florida; the oligotrophic Florida Keys and the mesotrophic outflow from the Everglades. For 2-years from January 2018 to January 2020, we set up 55 dilution and light-dark bottle experiments at five stations to estimate the microzooplankton community grazing rate, instantaneous phytoplankton growth rate, and primary production. Our results suggest that microzooplankton are consuming a higher proportion of the primary production near the Everglades outflow compared to the Florida Keys. We also found that changes in phytoplankton growth rates are disconnected from changes in the microzooplankton grazing rates in the Florida Keys. Overall, the data from the Everglades outflow is what would be expected based on global patterns, but factors other than microzooplankton grazing are more important in controlling phytoplankton biomass in the Florida Keys

Using spatial variability in the rate of change of chlorophyll a to improve water quality management in a subtropical oligotrophic estuary

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Millette, N. C., Kelble, C., Linhoss, A., Ashby, S., & Visser, L. Using spatial variability in the rate of change of chlorophyll a to improve water quality management in a subtropical oligotrophic estuary. Estuaries and Coasts, 42(7), (2019): 1792-1803, doi:10.1007/s12237-019-00610-5.Anthropogenic eutrophication threatens numerous aquatic ecosystems across the globe. Proactive management that prevents a system from becoming eutrophied is more effective and cheaper than restoring a eutrophic system, but detecting early warning signs and problematic nutrient sources in a relatively healthy system can be difficult. The goal of this study was to investigate if rates of change in chlorophyll a and nutrient concentrations at individual stations can be used to identify specific areas that need to be targeted for management. Biscayne Bay is a coastal embayment in southeast Florida with primarily adequate water quality that has experienced rapid human population growth over the last century. Water quality data collected at 48 stations throughout Biscayne Bay over a 20-year period (1995–2014) were examined to identify any water quality trends associated with eutrophication. Chlorophyll a and phosphate concentrations have increased throughout Biscayne Bay, which is a primary indicator of eutrophication. Moreover, chlorophyll a concentrations throughout the northern area, where circulation is restricted, and in nearshore areas of central Biscayne Bay are increasing at a higher rate compared to the rest of the Bay. This suggests increases in chlorophyll a are due to local nutrient sources from the watershed. These areas are also where recent seagrass die-offs have occurred, suggesting an urgent need for management intervention. This is in contrast with the state of Florida listing of Biscayne Bay as a medium priority impaired body of water.Data provided by the SERC-FIU/SFWMD Water Quality Monitoring Network is supported by SFWMD/SERC Cooperative Agreement #4600000352 as well as EPA Agreement #X7-96410603-3. This research was also funded by a NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory grant to the Northern Gulf Institute (award number NA160AR4320199)

Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due toclimate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem

Network approaches for formalizing conceptual models in ecosystem-based management

Funding Intermodel comparisons were supported through funding from the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program. P.S. McDonald’s involvement was funded in part by a grant from Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington, pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award number NA14OAR4170078. Funding for RPW was supported by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)/Sea Grant Population and Ecosystem Dynamics Graduate Fellowship via federal award NA14OAR4170077. Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge and thank the participants of the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program conceptual network modelling workshop at Baton Rouge, LA in July 2018. The discussions at this meeting formed some of the basis for the ideas presented in this manuscript. We also thank J. Moss and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on earlier manuscript drafts. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Reference to trade names does not imply endorsement by the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. This is NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program contribution number 2021_3.Peer reviewedPostprin

Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model Development for the Southeast Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem

The overall goal of the MARES (MARine and Estuarine goal Setting) project for South Florida is “to reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable and capable of providing the diverse ecosystem services upon which our society depends.” Through participation in a systematic process of reaching such a consensus, science can contribute more directly and effectively to the critical decisions being made both by policy makers and by natural resource and environmental management agencies. The document that follows briefly describes MARES overall and this systematic process. It then describes in considerable detail the resulting output from the first step in the process, the development of an Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (ICEM) for the third subregion to be addressed by MARES, the Southeast Florida Coast (SEFC). What follows with regard to the SEFC relies upon the input received from more than 60 scientists, agency resource managers, and representatives of environmental organizations during workshops held throughout 2009–2012 in South Florida

How coastal strategic planning reflects interrelationships between ecosystem services: a four-step method

Explicit and integrated inclusion of ecosystem services (ESs) and their interrelationships can improve the quality of strategic plans and decision-making processes. However, there is little systematic analysis of how ES interrelationships are framed in policy language, particularly in coastal planning discourse. The objective of this paper is therefore to present a four-step method, based on content analysis, to assess ES interrelationships in coastal strategic planning documents. The method consists of: 1) selecting strategic plans; 2) identifying ESs; 3) identifying drivers, ESs and their effects; and 4) constructing relational diagrams. The four-step method is applied to a case of Jiaozhou Bay in China, demonstrating its capacity of identifying which drivers and ES trade-offs and synergies are formulated in coastal strategic plans. The method is helpful to identify overlooked ES interrelationships, inform temporal and spatial issues, and assess the continuity of plans' attention to interrelationships. The main methodological contributions are discussed by emphasizing its broad scope of drivers and ESs and an explicit distinction among the cause of relationships. The developed method also has the potential of cross-fertilizing other kinds of approaches and facilitating practical planning processes