Long term population dynamics - theory and reality in a peatland ecosystem

1. Population dynamics is a field rich in theory and poor in long‐term observational data. Finding sources of long‐term data is critical as ecosystems around the globe continue to change in ways that current theories and models have failed to predict. Here we show how long‐term ecological data can improve our understanding about palaeo‐population change in response to external environmental factors, antecedent conditions and community diversity. 2. We examined a radiometrically dated sediment core from the Didachara Mire in the mountains of south‐western Georgia (Caucasus) and analysed multiple biological proxies (pollen, fern spores, non‐pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, diatoms, chrysophyte cysts, midges, mites and testate amoebae). Numerical techniques, including multivariate ordination, rarefaction, independent splitting and trait analysis, were used to assess the major drivers of changes in community diversity and population stability. Integrated multi‐proxy analyses are very rare in the Caucasus, making this a unique record of long‐term ecological change in a global biodiversity hotspot. 3. Synthesis. Population changes in the terrestrial community coincided primarily with external environmental changes, while populations within the peatland community were affected by both internal and external drivers at different times. In general, our observations accord with theoretical predictions that population increases lead to greater stability and declines lead to instability. Random variation and interspecific competition explain population dynamics that diverged from predictions. Population change and diversity trends were positively correlated in all taxonomic groups, suggesting that population‐level instability is greater in more diverse communities, even though diverse communities are themselves more stable. There is a continuing need to confront population theory with long‐term data to test the predictive success of theoretical frameworks, thereby improving their ability to predict future change

Heat Wave Events over Georgia Since 1961: Climatology, Changes and Severity

The Caucasus Region has been affected by an increasing number of heat waves during the last decades, which have had serious impacts on human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems. A dataset of 22 homogenized, daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature series is developed to quantify climatology and summer heat wave changes for Georgia and Tbilisi station between 1961 and 2010 using the extreme heat factor (EHF) as heat wave index. The EHF is studied with respect to eight heat wave aspects: event number, duration, participating heat wave days, peak and mean magnitude, number of heat wave days, severe and extreme heat wave days. A severity threshold for each station was determined by the climatological distribution of heat wave intensity. Moreover, heat wave series of two indices focusing on the 90th percentile of daily minimum temperature (CTN90p) and the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature (CTX90p) were compared. The spatial distribution of heat wave characteristics over Georgia showed a concentration of high heat wave amplitudes and mean magnitudes in the Southwest. The longest and most frequently occurring heat wave events were observed in the Southeast of Georgia. Most severe heat wave events were found in both regions. Regarding the monthly distribution of heat waves, the largest proportion of severe events and highest intensities are measured during May. Trends for all Georgia-averaged heat wave aspects demonstrate significant increases in the number, intensity and duration of low- and high-intensity heat waves. However, for the heat wave mean magnitude no change was observed. Heat wave trend magnitudes for Tbilisi mainly exceed the Georgia-averages and its surrounding stations, implying urban heat island (UHI) effects and synergistic interactions between heat waves and UHIs. Comparing heat wave aspects for CTN90p and CTX90p, all trend magnitudes for CTN90p were larger, while the correlation between the annual time-series was very high among all heat wave indices analyzed. This finding reflects the importance of integrating the most suitable heat wave index into a sector-specific impact analysis

Recent changes in Georgia׳s temperature means and extremes: Annual and seasonal trends between 1961 and 2010

Sixteen temperature minimum and maximum series are used to quantify annual and seasonal changes in temperature means and extremes over Georgia (Southern Caucasus) during the period 1961 and 2010. Along with trends in mean minimum and maximum temperature, eight indices are selected from the list of climate extreme indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), for studying trends in temperature extremes. Between the analysis periods 1961–2010, 1971–2010 and 1981–2010 pronounced warming trends are determined for all Georgia-averaged trends in temperature means and extremes, while all magnitudes of trends increase towards the most recent period. During 1981 and 2010, significant warming trends for annual minimum and maximum temperature at a rate of 0.39 °C (0.47 °C) days/decade and particularly for the warm temperature extremes, summer days, warm days and nights and the warm spell duration index are evident, whereas warm extremes show larger trends than cold extremes. The most pronounced trends are determined for summer days 6.2 days/decade, while the warm spell duration index indicates an increase in the occurrence of warm spells by 5.4 days/decade during 1981 and 2010. In the comparison of seasonal changes in temperature means and extremes, the largest magnitudes of warming trends can be observed for temperature maximum in summer and temperature minimum in fall. Between 1981 and 2010, summer maximum temperature shows a significant warming at a rate of 0.84 °C/decade, increasing almost twice as fast as its annual trend (0.47 °C/decade). The Georgia-averaged trends for temperature minimum in fall increase by 0.59 °C/decade. Strongest significant trends in temperature extremes are identified during 1981 and 2010 for warm nights (4.6 days/decade) in summer and fall as well as for warm days (5.6 days/decade) in summer. Analyses demonstrate that there have been increasing warming trends since the 1960s, particularly for warm extremes during summer and fall season, accompanied by a constant warming of temperature means in Georgia

Trends in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over Georgia, 1971–2010

Annual changes to climate extreme indices in Georgia (Southern Caucasus) from 1971 to 2010 are studied using homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation series. Fourteen extreme temperature and 11 extreme precipitation indices are selected from the list of core climate extreme indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization – Commission for Climatology (WMO-CCL) and the research project on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Trends in the extreme indices are studied for 10 minimum and 11 maximum temperature and 24 precipitation series for the period 1971–2010. Between 1971 and 2010 most of the temperature extremes show significant warming trends. In 2010 there are 13.3 fewer frost days than in 1971. Within the same time frame there are 13.6 more summer days and 7.0 more tropical nights. A large number of stations show significant warming trends for monthly minimum and maximum temperature as well as for cold and warm days and nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices show greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices. Additionally, the warm spell duration indicator indicates a significant increase in the frequency of warm spells between 1971 and 2010. Cold spells show an insignificant increase with low spatial coherence. Maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation, the number of very heavy precipitation days, very wet and extremely wet days as well as the simple daily intensity index all show an increase in Georgia, although all trends manifest a low spatial coherence. The contribution of very heavy and extremely heavy precipitation to total precipitation increased between 1971 and 2010, whereas the number of wet days decreases

Climate Indices for the Moistening Regimen in the Territory of Georgia amidst Global Warming 1

I.Chavchavadze ave. 1, Tbilisi, 012

CD44 Contributes to the Regulation of MDR1 Protein and Doxorubicin Chemoresistance in Osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma is the most common type of pediatric bone tumor. Despite great advances in chemotherapy during the past decades, the survival rates of osteosarcoma patients remain unsatisfactory. Drug resistance is one of the main reasons, leading to treatment failure and poor prognosis. Previous reports correlated expression of cluster of differentiation 44 (CD44) with drug resistance and poor survival of osteosarcoma patients, however the underlying mechanisms are poorly defined. Here, we investigated the role of CD44 in the regulation of drug chemoresistance, using osteosarcoma cells isolated from mice carrying a mutation of the tumor suppressor neurofibromatosis type 2 (Nf2) gene. CD44 expression was knocked-down in the cells using CRISPR/Cas9 approach. Subsequently, CD44 isoforms and mutants were re-introduced to investigate CD44-dependent processes. Sensitivity to doxorubicin was analyzed in the osteosarcoma cells with modified CD44 expression by immunoblot, colony formation- and WST-1 assay. To dissect the molecular alterations induced by deletion of Cd44, RNA sequencing was performed on Cd44-positive and Cd44-negative primary osteosarcoma tissues isolated from Nf2-mutant mice. Subsequently, expression of candidate genes was evaluated by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR). Our results indicate that CD44 increases the resistance of osteosarcoma cells to doxorubicin by up-regulating the levels of multidrug resistance (MDR) 1 protein expression, and suggest the role of proteolytically released CD44 intracellular domain, and hyaluronan interactions in this process. Moreover, high throughput sequencing analysis identified differential regulation of several apoptosis-related genes in Cd44-positive and -negative primary osteosarcomas, including p53 apoptosis effector related to PMP-22 (Perp). Deletion of Cd44 in osteosarcoma cells led to doxorubicin-dependent p53 activation and a profound increase in Perp mRNA expression. Overall, our results suggest that CD44 might be an important regulator of drug resistance and suggest that targeting CD44 can sensitize osteosarcoma to standard chemotherapy