Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example

Forecasts for the current year that are made sometime during the current year are not true annual forecasts because they include already known information for the early part of the year. The current methodology that evaluates these ¡°forecasts¡± does not take into account the known information. This paper presents a methodology for calculating an implicit forecast for the latter part of a year conditional on the known information. We then apply the procedure to Japanese forecasts for 1988-2003 and analyze some of the characteristics of those predictions.Length: 24 pagesForecasting, Japanese forecasts, evaluation techniques

Bottom-up construction of complex biomolecular systems with cell-free synthetic biology

Cell-free systems offer a promising approach to engineer biology since their open nature allows for well-controlled and characterized reaction conditions. In this review, we discuss the history and recent developments in engineering recombinant and crude extract systems, as well as breakthroughs in enabling technologies, that have facilitated increased throughput, compartmentalization, and spatial control of cell-free protein synthesis reactions. Combined with a deeper understanding of the cell-free systems themselves, these advances improve our ability to address a range of scientific questions. By mastering control of the cell-free platform, we will be in a position to construct increasingly complex biomolecular systems, and approach natural biological complexity in a bottom-up manner

Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example

Forecasts for the current year that are made sometime during the current year are not true annual forecasts because they include already known information for the early part of the year. The current methodology that evaluates these 'forecasts' does not take into account the known information. This article presents a methodology for calculating an implicit forecast for the latter part of a year conditional on the known information. We then apply the procedure to Japanese forecasts for 1988-2003 and analyse some of the characteristics of those predictions.