The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015

Potential restoration approaches for heavily-logged tropical forests in the Solomon Islands

Small tropical island countries are becoming more vulnerable to forest loss due to industrial logging. These countries are mostly of lower socio-economic status and often heavily dependent on logging for economic revenue (Sloan and Sayer 2015). This scenario is highly apparent in the Solomon Islands, where log export alone contributes between 50 and 70% to the country’s annual export revenue (Katovai et al. 2015

Use of provisioning ecosystem services drives loss of functional traits across land use intensification gradients in tropical forests in Madagascar

Ecosystems services are threatened by the rapid degradation of tropical rainforests. In light of these threats, questions remain about how societies on the forest fringe who depend on provisioning services affect plant functional traits. This study assessed the relationship between plant functional traits, forest-dependent societies and provisioning ecosystem services along a forest–agriculture matrix gradient in tropical humid forests of Madagascar. Data were collected for six functional traits and six provisioning services. We evaluated functional diversity (FD) and utilitarian diversity (FD of provisioning services) along disturbance gradients. We also determined the traits most susceptible to loss along the gradient as well as the relationship between functional traits and provisioning services. The results showed that FD, utilitarian diversity and species richness decreased significantly across all modified habitats. There was a distinct suite of traits absent from intensely used habitats and those same traits were associated with the two most important provisioning services in the region (firewood and construction). The activities of people living on the forest fringe seem to be a strong selective force on trait loss in plant communities, which in turn will influence future species assembly and trait diversity and distribution. Moreover, this study suggests that it is possible to predict trait loss from plant communities in forests where degradation is mediated primarily through subsistence agriculture and resource extraction. Conservation efforts should recognize that forest degradation and deforestation are contextually specific, determined mostly by people’s efforts to maintain their basic livelihood, and therefore necessitate local-scale interventions that feed into landscape-scale policy initiatives

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1\% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1\% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015

Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity

Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status