A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes

We developed a diabetes risk score using a novel analytical approach and tested its diagnostic performance to detect individuals at high risk of diabetes, by applying it to the Qatari population. A representative random sample of 5,000 Qataris selected at different time points was simulated using a diabetes mathematical model. Logistic regression was used to derive the score using age, sex, obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Performance diagnostics, validity, and potential yields of a diabetes testing program were evaluated. In 2020, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 and sensitivity and specificity were 79.0% and 66.8%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 36.1% and 93.0%, with 42.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2030, projected AUC was 0.78 and sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 65.8%. PPV and NPV were 36.8% and 92.0%, with 43.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2050, AUC was 0.76 and sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 64.5%. PPV and NPV were 40.4% and 88.7%, with 45.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. This model-based score demonstrated comparable performance to a data-derived score. The derived self-complete risk score provides an effective tool for initial diabetes screening, and for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.Peer reviewe

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: A mathematical modeling analysis

Introduction We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries. Research design and methods An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar's 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources. Results Between 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20-79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar - for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial. Conclusions T2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality

Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses

AimsTo predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.MethodsA deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20–79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.ResultsAll intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8–46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.ConclusionsImplementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar

Assessment of Overweight, Obesity, Central Obesity, and Type 2 Diabetes Among Adolescents in Qatar: A Cross-Sectional Study

Qatar has a high obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden. This study aimed to (1) determine the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and T2DM in 13-17-year-old adolescents and (2) evaluate associations with adolescents\u27 lifestyle and breastfeeding history, parental weight, and familial T2DM history. A cross-sectional study (double-stage cluster sampling) was conducted in 2018-2020 using a self-administered parental and adolescent questionnaire. In the results, 23.4% of the adolescents (107/459) were overweight; 19.9% (91/459) were obese; and 37.6% (171/459) had evidence of central obesity. Random blood sugar (RBS) was suggestive of prediabetes (≥140 mg/dL) for 23 (5.0%) adolescents and T2DM (≥200 mg/dL) for none. In multivariable analysis, obesity was significantly associated with no breastfeeding (OR = 3.17, 95% CI: 1.09-9.26) compared to breastfed adolescents for ≥6 months, with first-degree family history of T2DM (OR = 2.27; 95% CI: 1.22-4.27), with maternal obesity (OR = 2.40; 95% CI: 1.01-5.70), and with acanthosis nigricans in adolescents (OR = 19.8; 95% CI: 8.38-46.9). Central obesity was significantly associated with maternal obesity (OR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.14-4.27) and with acanthosis nigricans (OR = 3.67; 95% CI: 1.88-7.18). Acanthosis nigricans (OR = 4.06; 95% CI: 1.41-11.7) was the only factor associated with elevated RBS. Addressing future disease burden among adults in Qatar will require extensive health and well-being programs, focused on healthy lifestyles and behaviors such as nutritious diets, physical activity, stress management, and self-care

Clinical and metabolic characteristics of the Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism (DIADEM-I) randomised clinical trial cohort

Objectives Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism-I (DIADEM-I) is the first randomised controlled trial (RCT) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region testing the effectiveness of an intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) for weight loss and diabetes remission. We report on the recruitment process and baseline characteristics of the DIADEM-I cohort based on origin (Middle East vs North Africa), and waist circumference.Design DIADEM-I is an open-label randomised, controlled, parallel group RCT recruiting young individuals (18–50 years) with early type 2 diabetes (≤3 years since diagnosis) originating from MENA. Individuals from primary care were randomised to usual medical care or ILI (total dietary replacement phase using meal replacement products, followed by staged food reintroduction and physical activity support). The primary outcome is weight loss at 12 months. Other outcomes are glycaemic control and diabetes remission.Setting Primary care, Qatar.Participants 147 (73% men) randomised within DIADEM-I who were included in the final trial data analysis.Outcome measures Recruitment metrics, and baseline clinical and metabolic characteristics.Results Of 1498 people prescreened, 267 (18%) were invited for screening and 209 (78%) consented. 173 (83%) were eligible. 15 (7%) withdrew before randomisation and the remaining 158 were randomised. Mean age was 42.1 (SD 5.6) years and mean body mass index was: 36.3 (5.5) kg/m2 (women) and 34.4 (5.4) kg/m2 (men). Mean diabetes duration was 1.8 (1.0) years and mean glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was 7.0% (1.30) (52.5 mmol/mol (SD 14.3)). Participants originated from 13 countries. Those from North Africa reported greater physical activity and had lower family history of diabetes. 90% of subjects were taking diabetes medications and 31% antihypertensives. Those with greater waist circumference had significantly higher insulin resistance and lower quality of life.Conclusion Recruitment of participants originating from the MENA region into the RCT was successful, and study participation was readily accepted. While DIADEM-I participants originated from 13 countries, there were few baseline differences amongst participants from Middle East versus North Africa, supporting generalisability of RCT results.Trial registration number ISRCTN20754766; NCT0322533

Additional file 1: of Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism (DIADEM-I): a randomised controlled trial to examine the impact of an intensive lifestyle intervention consisting of a low-energy diet and physical activity on body weight and metabolism in early type 2 diabetes mellitus: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

SPIRIT 2013 Checklist: Recommended items to address in a clinical trial protocol and related documents*. (DOC 124 kb

Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism (DIADEM-I):a randomised controlled trial to examine the impact of an intensive lifestyle intervention consisting of a low-energy diet and physical activity on body weight and metabolism in early type 2 diabetes mellitus: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity are syndemic and will have a significant impact on affected individuals and healthcare services worldwide. Evidence shows that T2DM remission can be achieved with significant weight loss in those who are younger with early diabetes and requiring fewer medications for glycaemic control. DIADEM-I aims to examine the impact of an intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) using a low-energy diet (LED) meal replacement approach combined with physical activity in younger individuals with early T2DM. Methods The planned study is an ongoing, non-blinded, pragmatic, randomised controlled, parallel-group trial examining the impact of an LED-based ILI on body weight and diabetes remission in younger (18–50 years) T2DM individuals with early diabetes (≤ 3-year duration). The ILI will be compared to usual medical care (UMC). The primary outcome will be weight loss at 12 months. Other key outcomes of interest include diabetes remission, glycaemic control, diabetes complications, cardiovascular health, physical activity, mental health, and quality of life. It is planned for the study to include 138 subjects for assessment of the primary outcome. Safety will be assessed throughout. Discussion If DIADEM-I demonstrates a clinically significant effect for younger individuals with early T2DM, it will inform clinical guidelines and services of the future for management of T2DM. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN20754766 (date assigned: 7 June 2017); ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03225339 Registered on 26 June 2017