EUR/USD valuuttakurssin ja makrotalouden fundamenttimuuttujien välinen tasapainorelaatio

Tiivistelmä. Tämä pro gradu -tutkielma käsittelee EUR/USD valuuttakurssin sekä makrotalouden fundamenttimuuttujien välistä yhteyttä vuosien 1999–2019 välillä. Erityisesti tarkastellaan, kuinka hyvin monetaarimallit selittävät valuuttakurssin liikkeitä, ja valuuttakurssin sekä fundamenttien väliltä etsitään pitkän aikavälin tasapainorelaatiota, eli yhteisintegraatiota. Tämän relaation olemassaoloa tutkitaan Johansenin yhteisintegraatiotestillä. Valuuttakurssien vaihteluita on pyritty selittämään sekä ennustamaan paljon, ja aihe on hyvin suosittu tutkimuskohde, mutta kuitenkaan siihen ei olla saatu selkeää konsensusta, ja aiheen tutkimustulokset ovat kaiken kaikkiaan melko ristiriitaisia. Aiempien tulosten mukaan kuitenkin voidaan nähdä, että monetaarimallit eivät sovellu lyhyen aikavälin liikkeiden selittämiseen, mutta pitkän aikavälin trendien ja liikkeiden havaitsemiseen ja analyysiin monetaarimallit ovat hyödyllisiä työkaluja. Tutkimukseen otettiin mukaan neljä fundamenttimuuttujaa, jotka ovat rahamäärä, tuotanto, korko- sekä inflaatiotaso. Saatuja tuloksia vertailtiin kahteen monetaarimallin versioon, joustavien hintojen malliin sekä jäykkien hintojen malliin. Granger kausaliteettitesteillä tutkittiin, kulkeeko kausaliteetti fundamenteista valuuttakursseihin, vai kenties toisin päin. Tämän tutkimuksen tulosten mukaan valuuttakurssin ja makrotalouden fundamenttien välillä vallitsee pitkän aikavälin tasapainorelaatio, kun kaikilta ajanjaksoilta havaittiin yhteisintegroituva vektori. Tämä tulos antaa tukea monetaarimallien toimivuudelle, ja tätä havaintoa pääosin tukevat myös aiempien tutkimusten tulokset. Kausaliteettitestit osoittivat, että itse asiassa valuuttakurssi vaikuttaa keskimäärin fundamentteihin enemmän, kuin fundamentit valuuttakurssiin. Kausaalisuussuhteet kuitenkin vaihtelevat testatulta ajanjaksolta toiselle siirtyessä, ja kausaliteetit saattavat olla myös kaksisuuntaisia. Tämän tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella monetaarimalleja voidaan hyödyntää talouden pitkän aikavälin trendien havaitsemisessa ja analysoimisessa, sekä muiden valuuttakurssimallien arvioimisen kiintopisteenä. Huomioitava on, että tämä tutkimus ei ota huomioon fundamenttimuuttujien keskinäisiä yhteyksiä, eikä muita mahdollisia valuuttakurssiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä

A novel high resolution contactless technique for thermal field mapping and thermal conductivity determination: Two-Laser Raman Thermometry

We present a novel high resolution contactless technique for thermal conductivity determination and thermal field mapping based on creating a thermal distribution of phonons using a heating laser, while a second laser probes the local temperature through the spectral position of a Raman active mode. The spatial resolution can be as small as $300$ nm, whereas its temperature accuracy is $\pm 2$ K. We validate this technique investigating the thermal properties of three free-standing single crystalline Si membranes with thickness of 250, 1000, and 2000 nm. We show that for 2-dimensional materials such as free-standing membranes or thin films, and for small temperature gradients, the thermal field decays as $T(r) \propto ln(r)$ in the diffusive limit. The case of large temperature gradients within the membranes leads to an exponential decay of the thermal field, $T \propto exp[-A \cdot ln(r)]$. The results demonstrate the full potential of this new contactless method for quantitative determination of thermal properties. The range of materials to which this method is applicable reaches far beyond the here demonstrated case of Si, as the only requirement is the presence of a Raman active mode

Lack of food access and food consumption patterns of late midlife women in southeast Michigan

Background: Food access is a key social determinant of health for older adults at high risk of chronic disease and physical disability. Methods: This cross-sectional analysis examined correlates of food access and the relationship between food access and food consumption characteristics in a sample of 316 late midlife women from Southeast Michigan in 2015-2016. Results: Lack of food access, defined as access to self-perceived adequate grocery shopping resources in one’s neighborhood, was reported by 20.9% of women. Women who reported lack of food access were less likely to report making meals at home (p=0.02) and had less frequent consumption of fresh fruits (p=0.04), fresh vegetables (p=0.001), and lean meats (p=0.048) as compared to those that did not report a lack of food access (p=0.04, p=0.001, p=0.048). Being African American (OR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.20-5.17) and experiencing economic stress (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 2.53-5.33) were major correlates of reporting lack of food access. Conclusion: Interventions to improve food access for midlife women may help address differences in chronic disease risk associated with diet quality among racial/ethnic groups and across socioeconomic status

Oppijaminäkäsitys, käsitys minusta oppijana:minä osaan, minä pystyn ja minä onnistun

Tiivistelmä. Oppijaminäkäsitystä ei juurikaan käsitellä luokanopettajan opintojen kandidaattivaiheessa, vaikka minäpystyvyys nousee esille kasvatustieteiden perusopinnoissa. Tämän kandidaatin tutkielman ensimmäisenä tutkimuskysymyksenä onkin selvittää, mitä oppijaminäkäsitys tarkoittaa. Tutkielmassa tuodaan esille, mitkä asiat vaikuttavat oppijaminäkäsitykseen ja mihin oppijaminäkäsitys vaikuttaa. Tavoitteeksi nousikin saada selville, miten oppijaminäkäsitys näkyy oppilaan akateemisessa toiminnassa, kuten tehtävien tekemisessä ja tavoitteiden asettamisessa. Alakouluikäinen lapsi viettää suuren osan arjestaan luokanopettajan kanssa, minkä vuoksi luokanopettaja on merkittävä aikuinen alakouluikäisen elämässä. Luokanopettaja toimii roolimallina, jonka toiminta vaikuttaa keskeisesti opettaja-oppilas-vuorovaikutussuhteeseen. Tutkielman toiseksi tutkimuskysymykseksi on muodostunut kysymys siitä, miten luokanopettaja voi vaikuttaa oppilaansa oppijaminäkäsitykseen. Tämän kysymyksen tavoitteena on selvittää, luokanopettajan roolia oppijaminäkäsityksen muodostumisessa ja mitä asioita luokanopettajan tulee ottaa huomioon oppijaminäkäsityksen suhteen opetuksessa ja kouluarjessa. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on käytetty kuvailevaa kirjallisuuskatsausta, ja aineistonkeruussa on hyödynnetty monipuolisesti eri tietokantoja. Tutkielmassa on käytetty niin kotimaisia kuin kansainvälisiäkin vertaisarvioituja lähteitä. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että oppijaminäkäsitys eli oppilaan käsitys omasta pystyvyydestään ja itsestään oppijana on yhteydessä akateemiseen toimintaan, kuten sinnikkyyteen ja motivaatioon. Keskeinen tutkimustulos on oppijaminäkäsityksen ja suoriutumisen molemminpuolinen suhde: oppijaminäkäsitys vaikuttaa oppilaan suoriutumiseen ja oppilaan aiemmat suoriutumiset vaikuttavat oppijaminäkäsitykseen. Näin ollen luokanopettajan tulee ottaa oppijaminäkäsitys huomioon. Tutkimustulokset tuovat esille luokanopettajan roolin, sillä esimerkiksi rohkaiseva kannustaminen, sosiaalisen vertailun vähentäminen ja opetusmenetelmien monipuolisuus vahvistavat oppijaminäkäsitystä. Luokanopettajalla on siis vaikutusta oppilaansa oppijaminäkäsityksen muodostumiseen

Water and nitrogen processes along a typical water flowpath and streamwater exports from a forested catchment and changes after clear-cutting: a modelling study

International audienceA two dimensional model, FEMMA, to describe water and nitrogen (N) fluxes within and from a forested first-order catchment (Kangasvaara in Eastern Finland) was constructed by linking the most significant processes affecting the fluxes of water, ammonium, nitrate and dissolved organic nitrogen along a hillslope from the water divide to the stream. The hillslope represents the average flowpath of water in the catchment and the model was used to estimate the N fluxes for a catchment in eastern Finland before and after clear-cutting. The simulated results were in reasonable agreement with the nitrate, dissolved organic N and dissolved total N measurements from the study catchment and with other results in the literature. According to the simulations, the major sinks of N after clear-cutting were immobilisation by soil microbes, uptake by ground vegetation and sorption to soil. These sinks increased downslope from the clear-cut area, indicating the importance of an uncut buffer zone between the stream and the clear-cut area in reducing N exports. The buffer zone retained 76% of the N flux coming from the clear-cut area. Nitrification was a key process in controlling the N export after clear-cutting and N increases were mainly as nitrate. Most of the annual N export took place during the spring flood, when uptake of N by plants was minimal

Post‐discharge tobacco cessation rates among hospitalized US veterans with and without diabetes

Aims  Smoking is a major risk factor for cardiovascular complications among patients with diabetes. Hospitalization has been shown to enhance cessation rates. The purpose of this study was to compare 6‐month post‐hospitalization tobacco cessation rates among US veterans with and without diabetes. Methods  This was a longitudinal study among inpatient veterans who used tobacco in the past month ( n  = 496). Patients were recruited and surveyed from three Midwestern Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals during an acute‐care hospitalization. They were also asked to complete a follow‐up survey 6 months post‐discharge. Bivariate‐ and multivariable‐adjusted analyses were conducted to determine differences in tobacco cessation rates between patients with and without a diagnosis of diabetes. Results  The mean age of patients was 55.2 years and 62% were white. Twenty‐nine per cent had co‐morbid diabetes. A total of 18.8% of patients with diabetes reported tobacco cessation at 6 months compared with 10.9% of those without diabetes ( P  = 0.02). Cotinine‐verified cessation rates were 12.5 vs. 7.4% in the groups with and without diabetes, respectively ( P  = 0.07). Controlling for psychiatric co‐morbidities, depressive symptoms, age, self‐rated health and nicotine dependence, the multivariable‐adjusted logistic regression showed that patients with diabetes had three times higher odds of 6‐month cotinine‐verified tobacco cessation as compared with those without diabetes (odds ratio 3.17, P  = 0.005). Conclusions  Post‐hospitalization rates of smoking cessation are high among those with diabetes. Intensive tobacco cessation programmes may increase these cessation rates further.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/92145/1/j.1464-5491.2012.03635.x.pd

Ethnicity predicts perceptions of smoking and smoking cessation among veterans

The objective of this study was to determine if race/ethnicity predicts motivation to quit smoking and preferences for cessation services among smokers serviced by a primarily psychiatric Veterans Affairs hospital. A self‐administered survey was given to a convenience sample of smokers ( n = 146) at the Battle Creek Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were calculated to determine the association between race/ethnicity and motivation to quit smoking. Forty‐two per cent of the sample was non‐White. Non‐White patients smoked significantly less cigarettes per day as compared with White patients ( P = 0.002). In the multivariate analyses, compared with Whites, non‐Whites had 3.5 times greater odds of thinking that quitting smoking was extremely/very important to health ( P = 0.01), 4.0 times greater odds of thinking of quitting using tobacco products in the next 30 days ( P = 0.004) and 3.4 times greater odds of being interested in receiving smoking cessation services ( P = 0.007). Yet, non‐White patients were less likely to be interested in intensive nurse counselling and cessation medications. As the number of non‐Whites continues to increase in the military, novel strategies may be needed to capitalize on the high motivation to quit smoking and preference for non‐traditional interventions among non‐White smokers treated in Veterans Affairs hospitals.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90416/1/j.1365-2850.2011.01757.x.pd

What influences the speed of prototyping? An empirical investigation of twenty software startups

It is essential for startups to quickly experiment business ideas by building tangible prototypes and collecting user feedback on them. As prototyping is an inevitable part of learning for early stage software startups, how fast startups can learn depends on how fast they can prototype. Despite of the importance, there is a lack of research about prototyping in software startups. In this study, we aimed at understanding what are factors influencing different types of prototyping activities. We conducted a multiple case study on twenty European software startups. The results are two folds, firstly we propose a prototype-centric learning model in early stage software startups. Secondly, we identify factors occur as barriers but also facilitators for prototyping in early stage software startups. The factors are grouped into (1) artifacts, (2) team competence, (3) collaboration, (4) customer and (5) process dimensions. To speed up a startups progress at the early stage, it is important to incorporate the learning objective into a well-defined collaborative approach of prototypingComment: This is the author's version of the work. Copyright owner's version can be accessed at doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57633-6_2, XP2017, Cologne, German

Racial/ethnic differences in hepatic steatosis in a population‐based cohort of post‐menopausal women: the Michigan Study of Women's Health Across the Nation

Aims The prevalence of hepatic steatosis may differ between post‐menopausal African‐American women and non‐Hispanic white women and by sex hormone binding globulin level. We examined prevalence of hepatic steatosis by race/ethnicity and associations with sex hormone binding globulin. Methods Participants included post‐menopausal women who underwent hepatic ultrasound ( n  = 345) at the Michigan site of the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation, a population‐based study. We examined hepatic steatosis prevalence by race/ethnicity and used logistic regression models to calculate the odds of hepatic steatosis with race/ethnicity and sex hormone binding globulin, after adjustment for age, alcohol use, waist circumference, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure and use of medications reported to lower intrahepatic fat. Results Fewer African‐American women than non‐Hispanic white women had hepatic steatosis (23 vs. 36%, P  = 0.01). African‐American women had lower triglyceride and low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, but higher blood pressure and follicle‐stimulating hormone levels ( P  < 0.05). In the optimal‐fitting multivariable models, women in the highest tertile of sex hormone binding globulin (60.2–220.3 nmol/l) had a lower odds of hepatic steatosis (odds ratio 0.43, 95% CI 0.20–0.93) compared with women in the lowest tertile of sex hormone binding globulin (10.5–40.3 nmol/l). There was an interaction between race/ethnicity and medication use whereby non‐Hispanic white women using medications had three times higher odds of hepatic steatosis compared with African‐American women not using medications (odds ratio 3.36, 95%  CI 1.07–10.58). Interactions between race/ethnicity and other variables, including sex hormone levels, were not significant. Conclusions Hepatic steatosis on ultrasound may be more common in post‐menopausal non‐Hispanic white women than African‐American women and was associated with lower levels of sex hormone binding globulin. What's new? Although hepatic steatosis is common in post‐menopausal women, previous studies have not examined risk factors in this population, particularly sex steroids and sex hormone binding globulin. We report that increased sex hormone binding globulin, the primary binding protein of sex hormones and a risk factor for diabetes, was strongly associated with decreased odds of hepatic steatosis in both race/ethnicities.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/101792/1/dme12225.pd