Adaptive geostatistical design and analysis for prevalence surveys

Non-adaptive geostatistical designs (NAGDs) offer standard ways of collecting and analysing geostatistical data in which sampling locations are fixed in advance of any data collection. In contrast, adaptive geostatistical designs (AGDs) allow collection of geostatistical data over time to depend on information obtained from previous information to optimise data collection towards the analysis objective. AGDs are becoming more important in spatial mapping, particularly in poor resource settings where uniformly precise mapping may be unrealistically costly and the priority is often to identify critical areas where interventions can have the most health impact. Two constructions are: singleton and batch adaptive sampling. In singleton sampling, locations xi are chosen sequentially and at each stage, xk+1 depends on data obtained at locations x1,…,xk. In batch sampling, locations are chosen in batches of size b>1, allowing each new batch, {x(k+1),…,x(k+b)}, to depend on data obtained at locations x1,…,xkb. In most settings, batch sampling is more realistic than singleton sampling. We propose specific batch AGDs and assess their efficiency relative to their singleton adaptive and non-adaptive counterparts using simulations. We then show how we are applying these findings to inform an AGD of a rolling Malaria Indicator Survey, part of a large-scale, five-year malaria transmission reduction project in Malawi

Inhibitory geostatistical designs for spatial prediction taking account of uncertain covariance structure

The problem of choosing spatial sampling designs for investigating an unobserved spatial phenomenon S arises in many contexts, for example in identifying households to select for a prevalence survey to study disease burden and heterogeneity in a study region D. We studied randomised inhibitory spatial sampling designs to address the problem of spatial prediction whilst taking account of the need to estimate covariance structure. Two specific classes of design are inhibitory designs and inhibitory designs plus close pairs. In an inhibitory design, any pair of sample locations must be separated by at least an inhibition distance δ. In an inhibitory plus close pairs design, n − k sample locations in an inhibitory design with inhibition distance δ are augmented by k locations each positioned close to one of the randomly selected n − k locations in the inhibitory design, uniformly distributed within a disc of radius ζ. We present simulation results for the Mat´ern class of covariance structures. When the nugget variance is non-negligible, inhibitory plus close pairs designs demonstrate improved predictive efficiency over designs without close pairs. We illustrate how these findings can be applied to the design of a rolling Malaria Indicator Survey that forms part of an ongoing large-scale, five-year malaria transmission reduction project in Malawi

Inhibitory geostatistical designs for spatial prediction taking account of uncertain covariance structure

The problem of choosing spatial sampling designs for investigating an unobserved spatial phenomenon S arises in many contexts, for example, in identifying households to select for a prevalence survey to study disease burden and heterogeneity in a study region D. We studied randomized inhibitory spatial sampling designs to address the problem of spatial prediction while taking account of the need to estimate covariance structure. Two specific classes of design are inhibitory designs and inhibitory designs plus close pairs. In an inhibitory design, any pair of sample locations must be separated by at least an inhibition distance δ. In an inhibitory plus close pairs design, n − k sample locations in an inhibitory design with inhibition distance δ are augmented by k locations each positioned close to one of the randomly selected n − k locations in the inhibitory design, uniformly distributed within a disk of radius ζ. We present simulation results for the Matérn class of covariance structures. When the nugget variance is non-negligible, inhibitory plus close pairs designs demonstrate improved predictive efficiency over designs without close pairs. We illustrate how these findings can be applied to the design of a rolling Malaria Indicator Survey that forms part of an ongoing large-scale, 5-year malaria transmission reduction project in Malawi

Procjena mikrostrukture alatnog čelika za hladni rad nakon pretaljivanja pulsirajućim laserom

The aim of this study is the investigation of micro-structural behaviour of a Mat. No. 1.2379 (EN-X160CrMoV121; AISI D2) cold work tool steel after remelting with a precise pulsed Nd:YAG laser. The investigated steel is one of the most hard to weld tool steels, due to large amount of alloying elements. The analysis was done on single spots remelted with specific laser pulse shape and parameters, assuring crack-less solidification. Re-solidifi ed areas were investigated with microscopy, hardness measurements, X-ray spectroscopy and diffraction method. Laser treatment causes rapid solidification leading into a formation of a fine dendritic microstructures containing high amount of retained austenite causing a significant decrease of hardness.Namjena ove studije je ispitivanje ponašanja mikro strukture alatnoga čelika za rad na hladno Mat. No.1.2379 (ENX160CrMoV121; AISI D2) po pretaljivanju s preciznim pulsiranim Nd:YAG laserom. Zbog velike količine legirnih elemenata istraživani materijal spada u grupu vrlo teško zavarljivih alatnih čelika. Analiza je provedena na pojedinim pretaljenim točkama korištenjem specifi čnog oblika i parametara laserskog impulsa koji osiguravaju skrućivanje bez pukotina. Pretaljena područja su ispitivana mikroskopom, mjerenjem mikro tvrdoće, rendgenskom spektroskopijom i defrakcijskom metodom. Tretman laserom uzrokvao je brzo skrućivanje koja dovodi do formiranja fi ne dendritičke strukture s velikim udjelom zaostalog austenita što uzrokuje bitno smanjivanje tvrdoće

High frequency of Polio-like Enterovirus C strains with differential clustering of CVA-13 and EV-C99 subgenotypes in a cohort of Malawian children

Enteroviruses (EVs) are among the most commonly detected viruses infecting humans worldwide. Although the prevalence of EVs is widely studied, the status of EV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa remains largely unknown. The objective of our present study was therefore to increase our knowledge on EV circulation in sub-Saharan Africa. We obtained 749 fecal samples from a cross-sectional study conducted on Malawian children aged 6 to 60 months. We tested the samples for the presence of EVs using real time PCR, and typed the positive samples based on partial viral protein 1 (VP1) sequences. A large proportion of th

Severe anemia in Malawian children

Background Severe anemia is a major cause of sickness and death in African children, yet the causes of anemia in this population have been inadequately studied. Methods We conducted a case-control study of 381 preschool children with severe anemia (hemoglobin concentration, <5.0 g per deciliter) and 757 preschool children without severe anemia in urban and rural settings in Malawi. Causal factors previously associated with severe anemia were studied. The data were examined by multivariate analysis and structural equation modeling. Results Bacteremia (adjusted odds ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6 to 10.9), malaria (adjusted odds ratio, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.3), hookworm (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.0 to 11.8), human immunodeficiency virus infection (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.8), the G6PD(sup -202/-376) genetic disorder (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.4), vitamin A deficiency (adjusted odds ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 5.8), and vitamin B(sub 12) deficiency (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.6) were associated with severe anemia. Folate deficiency, sickle cell disease, and laboratory signs of an abnormal inflammatory response were uncommon. Iron deficiency was not prevalent in case patients (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.60) and was negatively associated with bacteremia. Malaria was associated with severe anemia in the urban site (with seasonal transmission) but not in the rural site (where malaria was holoendemic). Seventy-six percent of hookworm infections were found in children under 2 years of age. Conclusions There are multiple causes of severe anemia in Malawian preschool children, but folate and iron deficiencies are not prominent among them. Even in the presence of malaria parasites, additional or alternative causes of severe anemia should be considere

Research Article (New England Journal of Medicine) Severe anemia in Malawian children

Background: Severe anemia is a major cause of sickness and death in African children, yet the causes of anemia in this population have been inadequately studied.Methods: We conducted a case–control study of 381 preschool children with severe anemia (hemoglobin concentration, &lt;5.0 g per deciliter) and 757 preschool children without severe anemia in urban and rural settings in Malawi. Causal factors  previously associated with severe anemia were studied. The data were examined by multivariate analysis and structural equation modeling.Results: Bacteremia (adjusted odds ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6 to 10.9), malaria (adjusted odds ratio, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.3), hookworm (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.0 to 11.8), human immunodeficiency virus infection (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.8), the G6PD−202/−376 genetic disorder (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.4), vitamin A deficiency (adjusted odds ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 5.8), and vitamin B12 deficiency (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.6) were associated with severe anemia. Folate deficiency, sickle cell disease, and laboratory signs of an abnormal  inflammatory response were uncommon. Iron deficiency was not prevalent in case patients (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.60) and was negatively associated with bacteremia. Malaria was associated with severe anemia in the urban site (with seasonal transmission) but not in the rural site (where malaria was holoendemic). Seventy-six percent of hookworm infections were found in children under 2 years of age.Conclusions: There are multiple causes of severe anemia in Malawian preschool children, but folate and iron deficiencies are not prominent among them. Even in the presence of malaria parasites, additional or alternative causes of severe anemia should be considered

Assessing and Strengthening African Universities' Capacity for Doctoral Programmes

Imelda Bates and colleagues developed and validated an evidence-based tool for evaluating doctoral programmes in African universities