How Good is Growth for the Poor? The Role of Initial Income Distribution in Regional Diversity in Poverty Trends

Using panel data of 58 developing countries for the period 1980-1998, this study shows that the responsiveness of the $2 a day poverty headcount measure to changes in mean income and inequality significantly decreases with initial inequality and the ratio poverty line over mean income - taken as proxies for the initial density of income near the poverty line.Variations in these proxies account for the large crossregional differences in the income elasticity of poverty during the 1980s and 1990s.We find that the income elasticity of poverty in the mid 1990s equals -1.31 on average and ranges from -0.71 for Sub-Saharan Africa to -2.27 for the Middle East and North Africa, and that the Gini elasticity of poverty equals 0.80 on average and ranges from 0.01 in South Asia to 1.73 in Latin America.While variation in income growth accounts for most of the variation in poverty reduction across regions, the impact of variations in inequality and in elasticities of poverty is almost always too large to be ignored, and in particular in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.Panel data;Poverty;Income Growth;Inequality

Worksharing as a policy to increase employment: an evaluation

Economic

A spatial assessment of Brassica napus gene flow potential to wild and weedy relatives in the fynbos biome

The original publication is available at http://www.scielo.org.za/Gene flow between related plant species, and between transgenic and non-transgenic crop varieties, may be considered a form of biological invasion. Brassica napus (oilseed rape or canola) and its relatives are well known for intra- and inter-specific gene flow, hybridisation and weediness. Gene flow associated with B. napus poses a potential ecological risk in the Fynbos Biome of South Africa, because of the existence of both naturalised (alien, weedy) and native relatives in this region. This risk is particularly pertinent given the proposed use of B. napus for biofuel and the potential future introduction of herbicide-tolerant transgenic B. napus. Here we quantify the presence and co-occurrence of S. napus and its wild and weedy relatives in the Fynbos Biome, as a first step in the ecological risk assessment for this crop. Several alien and at least one native relative of B. napus were found to be prevalent in the region, and to be spatially congruent with B. napus fields. The first requirement for potential gene flow to occur has thus been met. In addition, a number of these species have elsewhere been found to be reproductively compatible with S. napus. Further assessment of the potential ecological risks associated with B. napus in South Africa is constrained by uncertainties in the phylogeny of the Brassicaceae, difficulties with morphology-based identification, and poor knowledge of the biology of several of the species involved, particularly under South African conditions.Publishers' versio

Climate change impacts on the availability of anti-malarial plants in Kenya

In many rural East African areas, anti-malarial plants are commonly used as first-line treatment against malaria. However, spatially explicit information about the future availability of anti-malarial plant species and its relation to future suitable habitat for malaria vectors is limited. In this study we (1) model the distribution of anti-malarial plant and malaria vector species and assess the drivers of their distributions taking the example of the Samburu dryland in Kenya, (2) map the modeled overlap in this area, (3) assess the impact of future climate change on anti-malarial plant and malaria vector species and (4) report their future overlaps. Our results show that mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter and mean temperature of coldest quarter were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of anti-malarial species. The effects of climate change will vary, with some areas characterized by huge losses in anti-malarial species habitat while others gained or remained stable under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios by 2050s and 2070s. According to most of our scenarios, more than half of the anti-malarial species will become vulnerable or threatened by 2050s and 2070s. A comparison between distribution patterns of future anti-malarial species richness and malaria vector species suitable habitat suggests that the former will decrease considerably while the later will increase. Because the availability of anti-malarial species will decrease in the areas affected by malaria vectors, geographically targeted conservation strategies and further control measures against malaria vectors are all the more important

Reaching new heights: can drones replace current methods to study plant population dynamics?

Spatially explicit data on heterogeneously distributed plant populations are difficult to quantify using either traditional field-based methods or remote sensing techniques alone. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) offer new means and tools for baseline monitoring of such populations. We tested the use of vegetation classification of UAV-acquired photographs as a method to capture heterogeneously distributed plant populations, using Jacobaea vulgaris as a model species. Five sites, each containing 1–4 pastures with varying J. vulgaris abundance, were selected across Schleswig–Holstein, Germany. Surveys were conducted in July 2017 when J. vulgaris was at its flowering peak. We took aerial photographs at a 50 m altitude using three digital cameras (RGB, red-edge and near-infrared). Orthomosaics were created before a pixel-based supervised classification. Classification results were evaluated for accuracy; reliability was assessed with field data collected for ground verification. An ANOVA tested the relationship between field-based abundance estimations and the supervised classifications. Overall accuracy of the classification was very high (90.6%, ± 1.76 s.e.). Kappa coefficients indicated substantial agreement between field data and image classification (C 0.65). Field-based estimations were a good predictor of the supervised classifications (F = 7.91, df = 4, P = 0.007), resulting in similar rankings of J. vulgaris abundance. UAV-acquired images demonstrated the potential as an objective method for data collection and species monitoring. However, our method was more time consuming than field-based estimations due to challenges in image processing. Nonetheless, the increasing availability of low-cost consumer-grade UAVs is likely to increase the use of UAVs in plant ecological studies

Retirement Incentives in Belgium: Estimations and Simulations Using SHARE Data

peer reviewedThe paper studies retirement behavior of wage‐earners in Belgium – for the first time using a rich survey dataset to analyze retirement incentives as faced by individuals. Specifically, we use SHARE data to estimate a model à la Stock and Wise (1990). Exploring the data on individual life‐histories from SHARELIFE, we construct a measure of financial incentive to retire. Our analysis explicitly takes into account the different take‐up rates of the various early retirement exit paths across time and ages. The results show that financial incentives play a strong role. Health and education also matter, as do regional differences. Against the general background of the 2020 strategy, we perform a set of policy simulations and illustrate the scope but also the limits associated with selective parametric reforms

Offering self-sampling to cervical screening non-attenders in primary care

Objectives To assess the feasibility and acceptability of offering self-sampling for Human Papillomavirus (HPV) testing to cervical screening non-attenders when they consult primary care for any reason. Methods In a pilot implementation study, six general practices in London, UK, offered self-sampling kits during consultation to women aged 25–64 who were at least six months overdue for cervical screening (no cytology test recorded in the past 3.5 years if aged 25–49, or 5.5 years if aged 50–64). Eligible women were identified using an automated real-time search (during consultation) of the general practice electronic medical record system. Women collected samples either in clinic or at home (dry flocked swabs analysed using Roche Cobas®4800). Results Of approximately 5000 eligible women, 3131 consulted primary care between January and December 2014 (mean recruitment period 9.5 months). Of these, 21% (652) were offered kits, 14% (443) accepted, and 9% (292) returned a self-sample. The proportion of eligible women offered kits varied considerably among practices (11–36%). Sample return rates increased with kit offered rates ( r = 0.8, p = 0.04). Of 39 HPV positive women 85% (33) attended follow-up, including two with invasive cancers (stage 2A1 and 1A1). Conclusions Offering self-sampling to cervical screening non-attenders opportunistically in primary care is feasible. Return rates could be increased if more women were offered kits. A large trial is needed to identify how self-sampling is best integrated into the national screening programme, and to identify determinants of uptake. </jats:sec

Road verges as invasion corridors? A spatial hierarchical test in an arid ecosystem

CITATION: Kalwij, J. M., Milton, S. J. & McGeoch, M. A. 2008. Road verges as invasion corridors? A spatial hierarchical test in an arid ecosystem. Landscape Ecology, 23: 439-451. doi:10.1007/s10980-008-9201-3The original publication is available at https://www.springer.com/journal/10980Disturbed habitats are often swiftly colonized by alien plant species. Human inhabited areas may act as sources from which such aliens disperse, while road verges have been suggested as corridors facilitating their dispersal. We therefore hypothesized that (i) houses and urban areas are propagule sources from which aliens disperse, and that (ii) road verges act as corridors for their dispersal. We sampled presence and cover of aliens in 20 plots (6 x 25 m) per road at 5-km intervals for four roads, nested within three localities around cities (n = 240). Plots consisted of three adjacent nested transects. Houses (n = 3349) were mapped within a 5-km radius from plots using topographical maps. Environmental processes as predictors of alien composition differed across spatial levels. At the broadest scale road-surface type, soil type, and competition from indigenous plants were the strongest predictors of alien composition. Within localities disturbance-related variables such as distance from dwellings and urban areas were associated with alien composition, but their effect differed between localities. Within roads, density and proximity of houses was related with higher alien species richness. Plot distance from urban areas, however, was not a significant predictor of alien richness or cover at any of the spatial levels, refuting the corridor hypothesis. Verges hosted but did not facilitate the spread of alien species. The scale dependence and multiplicity of mechanisms explaining alien plant communities found here highlight the importance of considering regional climatic gradients, landscape context and road-verge properties themselves when managing verges.DST-NRF Center of Excellence for Invasion Biology.Publisher’s versio

Increasing chlamydia screening tests in general practice: A modi fied Zelen prospective cluster randomised controlled trial evaluating a complex intervention based on the theory of planned behaviour

Objective: To determine if a structured complex intervention increases opportunistic chlamydia screening testing of patients aged 15-24 years attending English general practitioner (GP) practices. Methods: A prospective, Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial with a modified Zelen design involving 160 practices in South West England in 2010. The intervention was based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). It comprised of practice-based education with up to two additional contacts to increase the importance of screening to GP staff and their confidence to offer tests through skill development (including videos). Practical resources (targets, posters, invitation cards, computer reminders, newsletters including feedback) aimed to actively influence social cognitions of staff, increasing their testing intention. Results: Data from 76 intervention and 81 control practices were analysed. In intervention practices, chlamydia screening test rates were 2.43/100 15-24-yearolds registered preintervention, 4.34 during intervention and 3.46 postintervention; controls testing rates were 2.61/ 100 registered patients prior intervention, 3.0 during intervention and 2.82 postintervention. During the intervention period, testing in intervention practices was 1.76 times as great (CI 1.24 to 2.48) as controls; this persisted for 9 months postintervention (1.57 times as great, CI 1.27 to 2.30). Chlamydia infections detected increased in intervention practices from 2.1/1000 registered 15-24-year-olds prior intervention to 2.5 during the intervention compared with 2.0 and 2.3/1000 in controls (Estimated Rate Ratio intervention versus controls 1.4 (CI 1.01 to 1.93). Conclusions: This complex intervention doubled chlamydia screening tests in fully engaged practices. The modified Zelen design gave realistic measures of practice full engagement (63) and efficacy of this educational intervention in general practice; it should be used more often. Trial registration: The trial was registered on the UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio database. UKCRN number 9722

The SPORTSMART study: a pilot randomised controlled trial of sexually transmitted infection screening interventions targeting men in football club settings

Background: Uptake of chlamydia screening by men in England has been substantially lower than by women. Non-traditional settings such as sports clubs offer opportunities to widen access. Involving people who are not medically trained to promote screening could optimise acceptability. Methods: We developed two interventions to explore the acceptability and feasibility of urine-based sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening interventions targeting men in football clubs. We tested these interventions in a pilot cluster randomised control trial. Six clubs were randomly allocated, two to each of three trial arms: team captain-led and poster STI screening promotion; sexual health adviser-led and poster STI screening promotion; and poster-only STI screening promotion (control/comparator). Primary outcome was test uptake. Results: Across the three arms, 153 men participated in the trial and 90 accepted the offer of screening (59%, 95% CI 35% to 79%). Acceptance rates were broadly comparable across the arms: captain-led: 28/56 (50%); health professional-led: 31/46 (67%); and control: 31/51 (61%). However, rates varied appreciably by club, precluding formal comparison of arms. No infections were identified. Process evaluation confirmed that interventions were delivered in a standardised way but the control arm was unintentionally ‘enhanced’ by some team captains actively publicising screening events. Conclusions: Compared with other UK-based community screening models, uptake was high but gaining access to clubs was not always easy. Use of sexual health advisers and team captains to promote screening did not appear to confer additional benefit over a poster-promoted approach. Although the interventions show potential, the broader implications of this strategy for UK male STI screening policy require further investigation