a cross-sectional study on the association between urbanicity and the acquisition of immunity

Background Malaria incidence has declined considerably over the last decade. This is partly due to a scale-up of control measures but is also attributed to increasing urbanization. This study aimed to analyse the association between malaria and urbanization and the effect of urbanicity on the acquisition of semi-immunity. Methods In 2012, children with fever presenting to St Michael’s Hospital Pramso/Ghana were recruited. The malaria-positive-fraction (MPF) of fever cases was calculated on community-level to approximate the malaria risk. The mean age of malaria cases was calculated for each community to estimate the acquisition of semi-immunity. The level of urbanicity for the communities was calculated and associations between MPF, urbanicity and immunity were modelled using linear regression. Results Twenty-six villages were included into the study with a mean MPF of 35 %. A linear decrease of 5 % (95 % CI: 4–6 %) in MPF with every ten-point increase in urbanicity was identified. The mean age of malaria patients increased by 2.9 months (95 % CI: 1.0–4.8) with every ten-point increase in urbanicity. Discussion The results confirm an association between an increase in urbanicity and declining malaria risk and demonstrate that the acquisition of semi-immunity is heterogeneous on a micro- epidemiological scale and is associated with urbanicity

Transcriptomic signatures differentiate survival from fatal outcomes in humans infected with Ebola virus

Background In 2014, Western Africa experienced an unanticipated explosion of Ebola virus infections. What distinguishes fatal from non-fatal outcomes remains largely unknown, yet is key to optimising personalised treatment strategies. We used transcriptome data for peripheral blood taken from infected and convalescent recovering patients to identify early stage host factors that are associated with acute illness and those that differentiate patient survival from fatality. Results The data demonstrate that individuals who succumbed to the disease show stronger upregulation of interferon signalling and acute phase responses compared to survivors during the acute phase of infection. Particularly notable is the strong upregulation of albumin and fibrinogen genes, which suggest significant liver pathology. Cell subtype prediction using messenger RNA expression patterns indicated that NK-cell populations increase in patients who survive infection. By selecting genes whose expression properties discriminated between fatal cases and survivors, we identify a small panel of responding genes that act as strong predictors of patient outcome, independent of viral load. Conclusions Transcriptomic analysis of the host response to pathogen infection using blood samples taken during an outbreak situation can provide multiple levels of information on both disease state and mechanisms of pathogenesis. Host biomarkers were identified that provide high predictive value under conditions where other predictors, such as viral load, are poor prognostic indicators. The data suggested that rapid analysis of the host response to infection in an outbreak situation can provide valuable information to guide an understanding of disease outcome and mechanisms of disease

Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories

BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths

Lessons from SARS: A retrospective study of outpatient care during an infectious disease outbreak

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Toronto, outpatient clinics at SickKids Hospital were closed to prevent further disease transmission. In response, a decision was made by the neonatal neuro-developmental follow up (NNFU) clinic staff to select patients with scheduled appointments to have a mail/telephone assessment using Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) or to postpone/skip their visit. The objective of this study was to compare the developmental assessment and its outcome in two groups of NNFU clinic patients, SARS versus non-SARS, over three standard clinic appointments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the diagnostic accuracy (identification of developmental delay), and patient management (referral for therapy or communication of a new diagnosis) of the strategies used during SARS, April/May 2003, to the standard assessment methods used for patients seen in April/May 2005 (non-SARS). In all cases data were obtained for 3 patient visits: before, during and after these 2 months and were compared using descriptive statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 95 patients in the SARS group and 99 non-SARS patients. The gestational age, sex, entry diagnosis and age at the clinic visit was not different between the groups. The NNFU clinic staff mailed ASQ to 27 families during SARS, 17 (63%) were returned, and 8 of the 17 were then contacted by telephone. Criteria used to identify infants at risk selected for either mailed ASQ or phone interviews were not clearly defined in the patients' charts. There was a significant under identification of developmental delay during SARS (18% versus 45%). Of those who responded to the mailed questionnaire, referrals for therapy rates were similar to non-SARS group. The lost to follow up rate was 24% for the SARS group compared with 7% for non-SARS. There was no difference in the overall rate of developmental delay in the two groups as identified at the 'after' visit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Poor advanced planning led to a haphazard assessment of patients during this infectious disease outbreak. Future pandemic plans should consider planning for outpatient care as well as in hospital management of patients.</p

Spatial variation and hot-spots of district level diarrhea incidences in Ghana: 2010–2014

Background: Diarrhea is a public health menace, especially in developing countries. Knowledge of the biological and anthropogenic characteristics is abundant. However, little is known about its spatial patterns especially in developing countries like Ghana. This study aims to map and explore the spatial variation and hot-spots of district level diarrhea incidences in Ghana. Methods: Data on district level incidences of diarrhea from 2010 to 2014 were compiled together with population data. We mapped the relative risks using empirical Bayesian smoothing. The spatial scan statistics was used to detect and map spatial and space-Time clusters. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between space-Time clustering and urbanization strata, i.e. rural, peri-urban, and urban districts. Results: We observed substantial variation in the spatial distribution of the relative risk. There was evidence of significant spatial clusters with most of the excess incidences being long-Term with only a few being emerging clusters. Space-Time clustering was found to be more likely to occur in peri-urban districts than in rural and urban districts. Conclusion: This study has revealed that the excess incidences of diarrhea is spatially clustered with peri-urban districts showing the greatest risk of space-Time clustering. More attention should therefore be paid to diarrhea in peri-urban districts. These findings also prompt public health officials to integrate disease mapping and cluster analyses in developing location specific interventions for reducing diarrhea

Spatial heterogeneity of malaria in Ghana: a cross-sectional study on the association between urbanicity and the acquisition of immunity.

BACKGROUND: Malaria incidence has declined considerably over the last decade. This is partly due to a scale-up of control measures but is also attributed to increasing urbanization. This study aimed to analyse the association between malaria and urbanization and the effect of urbanicity on the acquisition of semi-immunity. METHODS: In 2012, children with fever presenting to St Michael's Hospital Pramso/Ghana were recruited. The malaria-positive-fraction (MPF) of fever cases was calculated on community-level to approximate the malaria risk. The mean age of malaria cases was calculated for each community to estimate the acquisition of semi-immunity. The level of urbanicity for the communities was calculated and associations between MPF, urbanicity and immunity were modelled using linear regression. RESULTS: Twenty-six villages were included into the study with a mean MPF of 35 %. A linear decrease of 5 % (95 % CI: 4-6 %) in MPF with every ten-point increase in urbanicity was identified. The mean age of malaria patients increased by 2.9 months (95 % CI: 1.0-4.8) with every ten-point increase in urbanicity. DISCUSSION: The results confirm an association between an increase in urbanicity and declining malaria risk and demonstrate that the acquisition of semi-immunity is heterogeneous on a micro-epidemiological scale and is associated with urbanicity

Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison

Comparative genomics revealed adaptive admixture in Cryptosporidium hominis in Africa

Cryptosporidiosis is a major cause of diarrhoeal illness among African children, and is associated with childhood mortality, malnutrition, cognitive development and growth retardation. Cryptosporidium hominis is the dominant pathogen in Africa, and genotyping at the glycoprotein 60 (gp60) gene has revealed a complex distribution of different subtypes across this continent. However, a comprehensive exploration of the metapopulation structure and evolution based on whole-genome data has yet to be performed. Here, we sequenced and analysed the genomes of 26 C. hominis isolates, representing different gp60 subtypes, collected at rural sites in Gabon, Ghana, Madagascar and Tanzania. Phylogenetic and cluster analyses based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms showed that isolates predominantly clustered by their country of origin, irrespective of their gp60 subtype. We found a significant isolation-by-distance signature that shows the importance of local transmission, but we also detected evidence of hybridization between isolates of different geographical regions. We identified 37 outlier genes with exceptionally high nucleotide diversity, and this group is significantly enriched for genes encoding extracellular proteins and signal peptides. Furthermore, these genes are found more often than expected in recombinant regions, and they show a distinct signature of positive or balancing selection. We conclude that: (1) the metapopulation structure of C. hominis can only be accurately captured by whole-genome analyses; (2) local anthroponotic transmission underpins the spread of this pathogen in Africa; (3) hybridization occurs between distinct geographical lineages; and (4) genetic introgression provides novel substrate for positive or balancing selection in genes involved in host–parasite coevolution