Using data from 'visible' populations to estimate the size and importance of 'hidden' populations in an epidemic: A modelling technique.

We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in Bangalore, mainly collected from 'hot-spot' locations that attract MSM/TGW, to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample. A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed, incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW, grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role (insertive, receptive or versatile). Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for 'balancing' numbers of partners and role preferences, we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more 'hidden' insertive MSM subpopulation, and explored their potential importance for the HIV epidemic. Projections for 2009 across all three approaches suggest that HIV prevalence among insertive MSM was likely to be less than half that recorded in the surveys (4.5-6.5% versus 13.1%), but that the relative size of this subgroup was over four times larger (61-69% of all MSM/TGW versus 15%). We infer that the insertive MSM accounted for 10-20% of all prevalent HIV infections among urban males aged 15-49. Mathematical modelling can be used with data on 'visible' MSM/TGW to provide insights into the characteristics of 'hidden' MSM. A greater understanding of the sexual behaviour of all MSM/TGW is important for effective HIV programming. More broadly, a hidden subgroup with a lower infectious disease prevalence than more visible subgroups, has the potential to contain more infections, if the hidden subgroup is considerably larger in size

Who mixes with whom among men who have sex with men? Implications for modelling the HIV epidemic in southern India

In India, the identity of men who have sex with men (MSM) is closely related to the role taken in anal sex (insertive, receptive or both), but little is known about sexual mixing between identity groups. Both role segregation (taking only the insertive or receptive role) and the extent of assortative (within-group) mixing are known to affect HIV epidemic size in other settings and populations. This study explores how different possible mixing scenarios, consistent with behavioural data collected in Bangalore, south India, affect both the HIV epidemic, and the impact of a targeted intervention. Deterministic models describing HIV transmission between three MSM identity groups (mostly insertive Panthis/Bisexuals, mostly receptive Kothis/Hijras and versatile Double Deckers), were parameterised with behavioural data from Bangalore. We extended previous models of MSM role segregation to allow each of the identity groups to have both insertive and receptive acts, in differing ratios, in line with field data. The models were used to explore four different mixing scenarios ranging from assortative (maximising within-group mixing) to disassortative (minimising within-group mixing). A simple model was used to obtain insights into the relationship between the degree of within-group mixing, R0 and equilibrium HIV prevalence under different mixing scenarios. A more complex, extended version of the model was used to compare the predicted HIV prevalence trends and impact of an HIV intervention when fitted to data from Bangalore. With the simple model, mixing scenarios with increased amounts of assortative (within-group) mixing tended to give rise to a higher R0 and increased the likelihood that an epidemic would occur. When the complex model was fit to HIV prevalence data, large differences in the level of assortative mixing were seen between the fits identified using different mixing scenarios, but little difference was projected in future HIV prevalence trends. An oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) intervention was modelled, targeted at the different identity groups. For intervention strategies targeting the receptive or receptive and versatile MSM together, the overall impact was very similar for different mixing patterns. However, for PrEP scenarios targeting insertive or versatile MSM alone, the overall impact varied considerably for different mixing scenarios; more impact was achieved with greater levels of disassortative mixing

HIV Transmission Potential Among Local and Migrant Factory Workers in Kolkata, India

Migrant workers in India play a key role in the spread of HIV. Kolkata is a common destination for workers, who may acquire infection and transmit it to their wives and/or other sexual partners. We investigated sexual relations and condom use by factory workers. Migrant and local factory workers were randomly selected from five wards of Kolkata. Information was collected about demographic and socio-economic characteristics, sexual relationships, condom usage, and perceptions and intent to use condoms. Condom use was very low in both groups of workers, particularly among migrants. Many married workers visited female sex workers but never used condoms. Few intended to use condoms, and if they did, it did not always translate into actual usage. There is great potential for transmission of HIV/sexually transmitted infections by these workers. Carefully designed intervention and education programs in the context of low literacy and cultural norms are urgently needed

Incidence and prevalence of patellofemoral pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Patellofemoral pain is considered one of the most common forms of knee pain, affecting adults, adolescents, and physically active populations. Inconsistencies in reported incidence and prevalence exist and in relation to the allocation of healthcare and research funding, there is a clear need to accurately understand the epidemiology of patellofemoral pain. Methods: An electronic database search was conducted, as well as grey literature databases, from inception to June 2017. Two authors independently selected studies, extracted data and appraised methodological quality. If heterogeneous, data were analysed descriptively. Where studies were homogeneous, data were pooled through a meta-analysis. Results: 23 studies were included. Annual prevalence for patellofemoral pain in the general population was reported as 22.7%, and adolescents as 28.9%. Incidence rates in military recruits ranged from 9.7 – 571.4/1,000 person-years, amateur runners in the general population at 1080.5/1,000 person-years and adolescents amateur athletes 5.1% - 14.9% over 1 season. One study reported point prevalence within military populations as 13.5%. The pooled estimate for point prevalence in adolescents was 7.2% (95% Confidence Interval: 6.3% - 8.3%), and in female only adolescent athletes was 22.7% (95% Confidence Interval 17.4% - 28.0%). Conclusion: This review demonstrates high incidence and prevalence levels for patellofemoral pain. Within the context of this, and poor long term prognosis and high disability levels, PFP should be an urgent research priority

Serum microrna biomarkers for detection of non-small cell lung cancer

Non small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality world-wide and the majority of cases are diagnosed at late stages of disease. There is currently no cost-effective screening test for NSCLC, and the development of such a test is a public health imperative. Recent studies have suggested that chest computed tomography screening of patients at high risk of lung cancer can increase survival from disease, however, the cost effectiveness of such screening has not been established. In this Phase I/II biomarker study we examined the feasibility of using serum miRNA as biomarkers of NSCLC using RT-qPCR to examine the expression of 180 miRNAs in sera from 30 treatment naive NSCLC patients and 20 healthy controls. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and area under the curve were used to identify differentially expressed miRNA pairs that could distinguish NSCLC from healthy controls. Selected miRNA candidates were further validated in sera from an additional 55 NSCLC patients and 75 healthy controls. Examination of miRNA expression levels in serum from a multi-institutional cohort of 50 subjects (30 NSCLC patients and 20 healthy controls) identified differentially expressed miRNAs. A combination of two differentially expressed miRNAs miR-15b and miR-27b, was able to discriminate NSCLC from healthy controls with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% in the training set. Upon further testing on additional 130 subjects (55 NSCLC and 75 healthy controls), this miRNA pair predicted NSCLC with a specificity of 84% (95% CI 0.73-0.91), sensitivity of 100% (95% CI; 0.93-1.0), NPV of 100%, and PPV of 82%. These data provide evidence that serum miRNAs have the potential to be sensitive, cost-effective biomarkers for the early detection of NSCLC. Further testing in a Phase III biomarker study in is necessary for validation of these results. © 2012 Hennessey et al

From social ties to embedded competencies: The case of business groups

Our current views of economic competition are still rooted in the imagery of the isolated firm that transacts with its buyers, suppliers, and competitors via largely anonymous factor and product markets. Yet this view is fundamentally at odds with the growing importance of business groups in the global economy. We thus need a reconceptualized version of our idea of economic competition, which is capable of explaining competitive advantage at the group-versus-group rather than firm-versus-firm level of analysis. In the present paper we build on insights derived from organizational sociology and organizational economics to develop a business group-level theory of competition and competitive advantage based on embedded competencies

Topical microbicides to prevent the transmission of HIV: formulation gaps and challenges

The efforts of the topical microbicide field to identify a safe and effective topical microbicide were realized in July of 2010 with the reporting of the results of the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa 004 trial. In this trial, a 1% tenofovir gel was found to reduce women’s risk for HIV acquisition by 39% compared to placebo. To understand the impact of this trial on future microbicide development, we must view it from the historical perspective of previous phases 2 and 3 clinical trials with detergents and sulfated polyanions. This knowledge and emerging information must then be parlayed into the next steps needed to create a safe, effective, and acceptable topical microbicide. This review will look at the lessons learned from preclinical and clinical development of topical microbicides, focusing on two significant future challenges: (1) topical microbicide formulation safety and (2) the critical role that adherence to product use has in determining safety and efficacy in clinical trials and ultimately commercial viability of the licensed product. In addition to framing these issues within our current understanding of formulation and prevention of HIV acquisition, recent advances in our understanding of the mechanism of HIV transmission and how it informs on future formulation strategies will be briefly discussed

Risk factors for failure to return to the pre-fracture place of residence after hip fracture: a prospective longitudinal study of 444 patients

Introduction: Long-term place of residence after hip fracture is not often described in literature. The goal of this study was to identify risk factors, known at admission, for failure to return to the pre-fracture place of residence of hip fracture patients in the Wrst year after a hip fracture. Methods: This is a prospective longitudinal study of 444 consecutive admissions of hip fracture patients aged ≥65 years. Place of residence prior to admission, at discharge, after 3 and 12 months was registered. Patients admitted from a nursing home (n = 49) were excluded from statistical analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed, using age, gender, presence of a partner, ASAscore, dementia, anaemia at admission, type of fracture, pre-fracture level of mobility and level of activities of daily living (ADL) as possible risk factors. Results: Two hundred eighty-nine patients lived in their own home, 31.8% returned at discharge, 72.9% at 3 months and 72.8% at 12 months. Age, absence of a partner, dementia, and a lower pre-fracture level of ADL or mobility were independent contributors to failure to return to their own home at discharge, 3 or 12 months. 106 patients lived in a residential home; 33.3% returned at discharge, 68.4% at 3 months and 64.4% at 12 months. Age was an independent contributor to failure to return to a residential home. Conclusions: Age, dementia and a lower pre-fracture level of ADL were the main signiWcant risk factors for failure to return to the pre-fracture residence. As the 3- and 12-month return-rates were similar, 3-month follow-up might be used as an endpoint in future research

Acute and rapid degradation of endogenous proteins by Trim-Away.

Protein depletion is a key approach to understanding the functions of a protein in a biological system. We recently developed the Trim-Away approach in order to rapidly degrade endogenous proteins without prior modification. Trim-Away is based on the ubiquitin ligase and Fc receptor TRIM21, which recognizes antibody-bound proteins and targets them for degradation by the proteasome. In a typical Trim-Away experiment, protein degradation is achieved in three steps: first, introduction of an antibody against the target protein; second, recruitment of endogenous or exogenous/overexpressed TRIM21 to the antibody-bound target protein; and third, proteasome-mediated degradation of the target protein, antibody and TRIM21 complex. Protein degradation by Trim-Away is acute and rapid, with half-lives of ~10-20 min. The major advantages of Trim-Away over other protein degradation methods are that it can be applied to any endogenous protein without prior modification; that it uses conventional antibodies that are widely available; and that it can be applied to a wide range of cell types, including nondividing primary human cells, for which other loss-of-function assays are challenging. In this protocol, we describe the detailed procedures for antibody preparation and delivery in mouse oocytes and cultured cells via microinjection and electroporation. In addition, we provide recommendations for antibody selection and validation, and for the generation of TRIM21-overexpressing cell lines for cases in which endogenous TRIM21 is limited. A typical Trim-Away experiment takes just a few hours.The research leading to these results received financial support from the Medical Research Council (MC_U105192711 and MC_U105181010), the Max Planck Society, the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 241548, European Research Council (ERC) Starting Grant no. 337415 and a Wellcome Trust Investigator Award