To test or to treat? an analysis of influenza testing and Antiviral treatment strategies using economic computer modeling

Background: Due to the unpredictable burden of pandemic influenza, the best strategy to manage testing, such as rapid or polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and antiviral medications for patients who present with influenza-like illness (ILI) is unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a set of computer simulation models to evaluate the potential economic value of seven strategies under seasonal and pandemic influenza conditions: (1) using clinical judgment alone to guide antiviral use, (2) using PCR to determine whether to initiate antivirals, (3) using a rapid (point-of-care) test to determine antiviral use, (4) using a combination of a point-of-care test and clinical judgment, (5) using clinical judgment and confirming the diagnosis with PCR testing, (6) treating all with antivirals, and (7) not treating anyone with antivirals. For healthy younger adults (<65 years old) presenting with ILI in a seasonal influenza scenario, strategies were only cost-effective from the societal perspective. Clinical judgment, followed by PCR and point-of-care testing, was found to be cost-effective given a high influenza probability. Doubling hospitalization risk and mortality (representing either higher risk individuals or more virulent strains) made using clinical judgment to guide antiviral decision-making cost-effective, as well as PCR testing, point-of-care testing, and point-of-care testing used in conjunction with clinical judgment. For older adults (≥65 years old), in both seasonal and pandemic influenza scenarios, employing PCR was the most cost-effective option, with the closest competitor being clinical judgment (when judgment accuracy ≥50%). Point-of-care testing plus clinical judgment was cost-effective with higher probabilities of influenza. Treating all symptomatic ILI patients with antivirals was cost-effective only in older adults. Conclusions/Significance: Our study delineated the conditions under which different testing and antiviral strategies may be cost-effective, showing the importance of accuracy, as seen with PCR or highly sensitive clinical judgment. © 2010 Lee et al

Muscle metabolic and neuromuscular determinants of fatigue during cycling in different exercise intensity domains.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Physiological Society via the DOI in this record.The lactate or gas exchange threshold (GET) and the critical power (CP) are closely associated with human exercise performance. We tested the hypothesis that the limit of tolerance (Tlim) during cycle exercise performed within the exercise intensity domains demarcated by GET and CP is linked to discrete muscle metabolic and neuromuscular responses. Eleven males performed a ramp incremental exercise test, 4-5 severe-intensity (SEV; >CP) constant-work-rate (CWR) tests until Tlim, a heavy-intensity (HVY; GET) CWR test until Tlim, and a moderate-intensity (MOD; 0.05) muscle metabolic milieu (i.e., low pH and [PCr] and high [lactate]) was attained at Tlim (~2-14 min) for all SEV exercise bouts. The muscle metabolic perturbation was greater at Tlim following SEV compared to HVY, and also following SEV and HVY compared to MOD (all P0.05). Neural drive to the VL increased during SEV (4±4%; P0.05). During SEV and HVY, but not MOD, the rates of change in M-wave amplitude and neural drive were correlated with changes in muscle metabolic ([PCr], [lactate]) and blood ionic/acid-base status ([lactate], [K(+)]) (P<0.05). The results of this study indicate that the metabolic and neuromuscular determinants of fatigue development differ according to the intensity domain in which the exercise is performed

Average distances on self-similar sets and higher order average distances of self-similar measures

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) we study different notions of the average distance between two points of a self-similar subset of ℝ, and (2) we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of higher order average moments of self-similar measures on self-similar subsets of ℝ

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on referrals to musculoskeletal services from primary care and subsequent incidence of inflammatory rheumatic musculoskeletal disease: an observational study

Objectives To describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic upon referral patterns and incident diagnosis of inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (iRMDs). Methods UK primary care data was used to describe referral patterns for patients with musculoskeletal conditions. Trends in referrals to musculoskeletal services and incident diagnoses of iRMDs (specifically rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and juvenile inflammatory arthritis (JIA)) were described using Joinpoint Regression and comparisons made between key pandemic time periods. Results The incidence of RA and JIA reduced by -13.3% and -17.4% per month respectively between January 2020 and April 2020, and then increased by 1.9% and 3.7% per month respectively between April 2020 and October 2021. The incidence of all diagnosed iRMDs was stable until October 2021. Referrals decreased between February 2020 and May 2020 by -16.8% per month from 4.8% to 2.4% in patients presenting with a musculoskeletal condition. After May 2020, referrals increased significantly (16.8% per month) to 4.5% in July 2020. Time from first musculoskeletal consultation to RA diagnosis, and referral to RA diagnosis increased in the early-pandemic period (rate ratio (RR) 1.11, 95%CI 1.07-1.15; RR 1.23, 95%CI 1.17-1.30) and remained consistently higher in the late-pandemic (RR 1.13, 95%CI 1.11-1.16; RR 1.27, 95%CI 1.23-1.32) periods respectively, compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. Conclusion Patients with underlying RA and JIA that developed during the pandemic may be yet to present, or be in the referral and/or diagnostic process. Clinicians should remain alert to this possibility and commissioners aware of these findings, enabling the appropriate planning and commissioning of services

Reappearance of Minority K103N HIV-1 Variants after Interruption of ART Initiated during Primary HIV-1 Infection

BACKGROUND: In the Zurich Primary HIV infection study (ZPHI), minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants were detected in some acutely HIV-1-infected patients prior to initiation of early antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, we investigated the reappearance of minority K103N and M184V HIV-1 variants in these patients who interrupted efficient early ART after 8-27 months according to the study protocol. These mutations are key mutations conferring drug resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors and they belong to the most commonly transmitted drug resistance mutations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Early ART was offered to acutely HIV-1-infected patients enrolled in the longitudinal prospective ZPHI study. Six patients harboring and eleven patients not harboring drug-resistant viruses at low frequencies prior to ART were included in this substudy. Minority K103N and M184V HIV-1 variants were quantified in longitudinal plasma samples after treatment interruption by allele-specific real-time PCR. All 17 patients were infected with HIV-1 subtype B between 04/2003 and 09/2005 and received LPV/r+AZT+3TC during primary HIV-1 infection (PHI). Minority K103N HIV-1 variants reappeared after cessation of ART in two of four patients harboring this variant during PHI and even persisted in one of those patients at frequencies similar to the frequency observed prior to ART (<1%). The K103N mutation did not appear during treatment interruption in any other patient. Minority M184V HIV-1 variants were detected in two patients after ART interruption, one harboring and one not harboring these variants prior to ART. CONCLUSION: Minority K103N HIV-1 variants, present in acutely HIV-1 infected patients prior to early ART, can reappear and persist after interruption of suppressive ART containing two nucleoside/nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors and a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00537966

Prioritising surveillance for alien organisms transported as stowaways on ships travelling to South Africa

The global shipping network facilitates the transportation and introduction of marine and terrestrial organisms to regions where they are not native, and some of these organisms become invasive. South Africa was used as a case study to evaluate the potential for shipping to contribute to the introduction and establishment of marine and terrestrial alien species (i.e. establishment debt) and to assess how this varies across shipping routes and seasons. As a proxy for the number of species introduced (i.e. 'colonisation pressure') shipping movement data were used to determine, for each season, the number of ships that visited South African ports from foreign ports and the number of days travelled between ports. Seasonal marine and terrestrial environmental similarity between South African and foreign ports was then used to estimate the likelihood that introduced species would establish. These data were used to determine the seasonal relative contribution of shipping routes to South Africa's marine and terrestrial establishment debt. Additionally, distribution data were used to identify marine and terrestrial species that are known to be invasive elsewhere and which might be introduced to each South African port through shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to establishment debt. Shipping routes from Asian ports, especially Singapore, have a particularly high relative contribution to South Africa's establishment debt, while among South African ports, Durban has the highest risk of being invaded. There was seasonal variation in the shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to the establishment debt of the South African ports. The presented method provides a simple way to prioritise surveillance effort and our results indicate that, for South Africa, port-specific prevention strategies should be developed, a large portion of the available resources should be allocated to Durban, and seasonal variations and their consequences for prevention strategies should be explored further. (Résumé d'auteur

Decrease of physical activity level in adolescents with limb fractures: an accelerometry-based activity monitor study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Immobilization and associated periods of inactivity can cause osteopenia, the physiological response of the bone to disuse. Mechanical loading plays an essential role in maintaining bone integrity. Skeletal fractures represent one cause of reduction of the physical activity (PA) level in adolescents. The purpose of this study was to quantify the reduction of PA in adolescents with limb fractures during the cast immobilization period compared with healthy controls.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two hundred twenty adolescents were divided into three groups: those with upper limb fractures (50 cases); lower limb fractures (50 cases); and healthy cases (120 cases). Patients and their healthy peers were matched for gender, age, and seasonal assessment of PA. PA level was assessed during cast immobilization by accelerometer. Time spent in PA in each of the different intensity levels - sedentary, light, moderate, and vigorous - was determined for each participant and expressed in minutes and as a percentage of total valid time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Reduction in PA during cast immobilization was statistically significant in patients with limb fractures compared to healthy controls. The total PA count (total number of counts/min) was significantly lower in those with upper and lower limb fractures (-30.1% and -62.4%, respectively) compared with healthy controls (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0003, respectively). Time spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA by patients with upper and lower limb injuries decreased by 36.9% (<it>p </it>= 0.0003) and 76.6% (<it>p </it>< 0.0001), respectively, and vigorous PA was reduced by 41.4% (<it>p </it>= 0.0008) and 84.4% (<it>p </it>< 0.0001), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>PA measured by accelerometer is a useful and valid tool to assess the decrease of PA level in adolescents with limb fractures. As cast immobilization and reduced PA are known to induce bone mineral loss, this study provides important information to quantify the decrease of skeletal loading in this patient population. The observed reduction of high intensity skeletal loading due to the decrease in vigorous PA may explain osteopenia due to disuse, and these data should be kept in mind by trauma practitioners to avoid any unnecessary prolongation of the cast immobilization period.</p

Genetic and Environmental Influences on Female Sexual Orientation, Childhood Gender Typicality and Adult Gender Identity

Background: Human sexual orientation is influenced by genetic and non-shared environmental factors as are two important psychological correlates – childhood gender typicality (CGT) and adult gender identity (AGI). However, researchers have been unable to resolve the genetic and non-genetic components that contribute to the covariation between these traits, particularly in women. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we performed a multivariate genetic analysis in a large sample of British female twins (N = 4,426) who completed a questionnaire assessing sexual attraction, CGT and AGI. Univariate genetic models indicated modest genetic influences on sexual attraction (25%), AGI (11%) and CGT (31%). For the multivariate analyses, a common pathway model best fitted the data. Conclusions/Significance: This indicated that a single latent variable influenced by a genetic component and common nonshared environmental component explained the association between the three traits but there was substantial measurement error. These findings highlight common developmental factors affecting differences in sexual orientation

Bone mineral accrual and gain in skeletal width in pre-pubertal school children is independent of the mode of school transportation – one-year data from the prospective observational pediatric osteoporosis prevention (POP) study

Background: Walking and cycling to school could be an important regular source of physical activity in growing children. The aim of this 12 months prospective observational study was thus to evaluate the effect of self-transportation to school on bone mineral accrual and gain in bone width in pre-pubertal children, both traits independently contributing to bone strength. Methods: Ninety-seven girls and 133 boys aged 7-9 years were recruited as a part of the Malmo Pediatric Osteoporosis Prevention (POP) Study in order to evaluate the influence of self-selected school transportation for the accrual of bone mineral and bone width. Children who walked or cycled to school were compared with children who went by bus or car. Bone mineral content (BMC) was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in the lumbar spine (L2-L4), third lumbar vertebra (L3) and hip, and bone width was calculated at L3 and femoral neck (FN). Changes during the first 12 months were compared between the groups. Subjective duration of physical activity was estimated by a questionnaire and objective level of everyday physical activity at follow-up by accelerometers worn for four consecutive days. All children remained in Tanner stage 1 throughout the study. Comparisons were made by independent student's t-tests between means, ANCOVA and Fisher's exact tests. Results: There were no differences in baseline or annual changes in BMC or bone width when the transportation groups were compared. No differences were detected in objectively measured daily level of physical activity by accelerometer. All children reached above 60 minutes of moderate to intense daily physical activity per day, the international recommended level of daily physical activity according to the United Kingdom Expert Consensus Group. Conclusion: The everyday physical activity in these pre-pubertal children seems to be so high that the school transportation contributes little to their total level of physical activity. As a result, the choice of school transportation seems not to influence the accrual of bone mineral or gain in bone size during a I2-month follow-up period

A one-year exercise intervention program in pre-pubertal girls does not influence hip structure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We have previously reported that a one-year school-based exercise intervention program influences the accrual of bone mineral in pre-pubertal girls. This report aims to evaluate if also hip structure is affected, as geometry independent of bone mineral influences fracture risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fifty-three girls aged 7 – 9 years were included in a curriculum-based exercise intervention program comprising 40 minutes of general physical activity per school day (200 minutes/week). Fifty healthy age-matched girls who participated in the general Swedish physical education curriculum (60 minutes/week) served as controls. The hip was scanned by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the hip structural analysis (HSA) software was applied to evaluate bone mineral content (BMC), areal bone mineral density (aBMD), periosteal and endosteal diameter, cortical thickness, cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI), section modulus (Z) and cross-sectional area (CSA) of the femoral neck (FN). Annual changes were compared. Group comparisons were done by independent student's <it>t</it>-test between means and analyses of covariance (ANCOVA). Pearson's correlation test was used to evaluate associations between activity level and annual changes in FN. All children remained at Tanner stage 1 throughout the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No between-group differences were found during the 12 months study period for changes in the FN variables. The total duration of exercise during the year was not correlated with the changes in the FN traits.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Evaluated by the DXA technique and the HSA software, a general one-year school-based exercise program for 7–9-year-old pre-pubertal girls seems not to influence the structure of the hip.</p