Risk assessment and decision making about in-labour transfer from rural maternity care: a social judgment and signal detection analysis

Background: The importance of respecting women's wishes to give birth close to their local community is supported by policy in many developed countries. However, persistent concerns about the quality and safety of maternity care in rural communities have been expressed. Safe childbirth in rural communities depends on good risk assessment and decision making as to whether and when the transfer of a woman in labour to an obstetric led unit is required. This is a difficult decision. Wide variation in transfer rates between rural maternity units have been reported suggesting different decision making criteria may be involved; furthermore, rural midwives and family doctors report feeling isolated in making these decisions and that staff in urban centres do not understand the difficulties they face. In order to develop more evidence based decision making strategies greater understanding of the way in which maternity care providers currently make decisions is required. This study aimed to examine how midwives working in urban and rural settings and obstetricians make intrapartum transfer decisions, and describe sources of variation in decision making. Methods: The study was conducted in three stages. 1. 20 midwives and four obstetricians described factors influencing transfer decisions. 2. Vignettes depicting an intrapartum scenario were developed based on stage one data. 3. Vignettes were presented to 122 midwives and 12 obstetricians who were asked to assess the level of risk in each case and decide whether to transfer or not. Social judgment analysis was used to identify the factors and factor weights used in assessment. Signal detection analysis was used to identify participants' ability to distinguish high and low risk cases and personal decision thresholds. Results: When reviewing the same case information in vignettes midwives in different settings and obstetricians made very similar risk assessments. Despite this, a wide range of transfer decisions were still made, suggesting that the main source of variation in decision making and transfer rates is not in the assessment but the personal decision thresholds of clinicians. Conclusions: Currently health care practice focuses on supporting or improving decision making through skills training and clinical guidelines. However, these methods alone are unlikely to be effective in improving consistency of decision making

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis Shows High Genetic Diversity and Ecological Niche Specificity among Haplotypes in the Maya Mountains of Belize

The amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been implicated in amphibian declines around the globe. Although it has been found in most countries in Central America, its presence has never been assessed in Belize. We set out to determine the range, prevalence, and diversity of Bd using quantitative PCR (qPCR) and sequencing of a portion of the 5.8 s and ITS1-2 regions. Swabs were collected from 524 amphibians of at least 26 species in the protected areas of the Maya Mountains of Belize. We sequenced a subset of 72 samples that had tested positive for Bd by qPCR at least once; 30 samples were verified as Bd. Eight unique Bd haplotypes were identified in the Maya Mountains, five of which were previously undescribed. We identified unique ecological niches for the two most broadly distributed haplotypes. Combined with data showing differing virulence shown in different strains in other studies, the 5.8 s - ITS1-2 region diversity found in this study suggests that there may be substantial differences among populations or haplotypes. Future work should focus on whether specific haplotypes for other genomic regions and possibly pathogenicity can be associated with haplotypes at this locus, as well as the integration of molecular tools with other ecological tools to elucidate the ecology and pathogenicity of Bd

Approaches to working in high-dimensional data spaces: gene expression microarrays

This review provides a focused summary of the implications of high-dimensional data spaces produced by gene expression microarrays for building better models of cancer diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutics. We identify the unique challenges posed by high dimensionality to highlight methodological problems and discuss recent methods in predictive classification, unsupervised subclass discovery, and marker identification

Potential Geographic Distribution of Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Invasion (Halyomorpha halys)

BACKGROUND: The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPALS: We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°-50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability

Proprioceptive performance of bilateral upper and lower limb joints: side-general and site-specific effects

Superiority of the left upper limb in proprioception tasks performed by right-handed individuals has been attributed to better utilization of proprioceptive information by a non-preferred arm/hemisphere system. However, it is undetermined whether this holds for multiple upper and lower limb joints. Accordingly, the present study tested active movement proprioception at four pairs of upper and lower limb joints, after selecting twelve participants with both strong right arm and right leg preference. A battery of versions of the active movement extent discrimination apparatus were employed to generate the stimuli for movements of different extents at the ankle, knee, shoulder and fingers on the right and left sides of the body, and discrimination scores were derived from participants’ responses. Proprioceptive performance on the non-preferred left side was significantly better than the preferred right side at all four joints tested (overall F(1, 11) = 36.36, p < 0.001, partial η(2) = 0.77). In the 8 × 8 matrix formed by all joints, only correlations between the proprioceptive accuracy scores for the right and left sides at the same joint were significant (ankles 0.93, knees 0.89, shoulders 0.87, fingers 0.91, p ≤ 0.001; all others r ≤ 0.40, p ≥ 0.20). The results point to both a side-general effect and a site-specific effect in the integration of proprioceptive information during active movement tasks, whereby the non-preferred limb/hemisphere system is specialized in the utilization of the best proprioceptive sources available at each specific joint, but the combination of sources employed differs between body sites

Correlated Genetic and Ecological Diversification in a Widespread Southern African Horseshoe Bat

The analysis of molecular data within a historical biogeographical framework, coupled with ecological characteristics can provide insight into the processes driving diversification. Here we assess the genetic and ecological diversity within a widespread horseshoe bat Rhinolophus clivosus sensu lato with specific emphasis on the southern African representatives which, although not currently recognized, were previously described as a separate species R. geoffroyi comprising four subspecies. Sequence divergence estimates of the mtDNA control region show that the southern African representatives of R. clivosus s.l. are as distinct from samples further north in Africa than they are from R. ferrumequinum, the sister-species to R. clivosus. Within South Africa, five genetically supported geographic groups exist and these groups are corroborated by echolocation and wing morphology data. The groups loosely correspond to the distributions of the previously defined subspecies and Maxent modelling shows a strong correlation between the detected groups and ecoregions. Based on molecular clock calibrations, it is evident that climatic cycling and related vegetation changes during the Quaternary may have facilitated diversification both genetically and ecologically

What do contrast threshold equivalent noise studies actually measure? Noise vs. nonlinearity in different masking paradigms

The internal noise present in a linear system can be quantified by the equivalent noise method. By measuring the effect that applying external noise to the system’s input has on its output one can estimate the variance of this internal noise. By applying this simple “linear amplifier” model to the human visual system, one can entirely explain an observer’s detection performance by a combination of the internal noise variance and their efficiency relative to an ideal observer. Studies using this method rely on two crucial factors: firstly that the external noise in their stimuli behaves like the visual system’s internal noise in the dimension of interest, and secondly that the assumptions underlying their model are correct (e.g. linearity). Here we explore the effects of these two factors while applying the equivalent noise method to investigate the contrast sensitivity function (CSF). We compare the results at 0.5 and 6 c/deg from the equivalent noise method against those we would expect based on pedestal masking data collected from the same observers. We find that the loss of sensitivity with increasing spatial frequency results from changes in the saturation constant of the gain control nonlinearity, and that this only masquerades as a change in internal noise under the equivalent noise method. Part of the effect we find can be attributed to the optical transfer function of the eye. The remainder can be explained by either changes in effective input gain, divisive suppression, or a combination of the two. Given these effects the efficiency of our observers approaches the ideal level. We show the importance of considering these factors in equivalent noise studies

Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk

This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts