The large longitudinal spread of solar energetic particles during the January 17, 2010 solar event

We investigate multi-spacecraft observations of the January 17, 2010 solar energetic particle event. Energetic electrons and protons have been observed over a remarkable large longitudinal range at the two STEREO spacecraft and SOHO suggesting a longitudinal spread of nearly 360 degrees at 1AU. The flaring active region, which was on the backside of the Sun as seen from Earth, was separated by more than 100 degrees in longitude from the magnetic footpoints of each of the three spacecraft. The event is characterized by strongly delayed energetic particle onsets with respect to the flare and only small or no anisotropies in the intensity measurements at all three locations. The presence of a coronal shock is evidenced by the observation of a type II radio burst from the Earth and STEREO B. In order to describe the observations in terms of particle transport in the interplanetary medium, including perpendicular diffusion, a 1D model describing the propagation along a magnetic field line (model 1) (Dr\"oge, 2003) and the 3D propagation model (model 2) by (Dr\"oge et al., 2010) including perpendicular diffusion in the interplanetary medium have been applied, respectively. While both models are capable of reproducing the observations, model 1 requires injection functions at the Sun of several hours. Model 2, which includes lateral transport in the solar wind, reveals high values for the ratio of perpendicular to parallel diffusion. Because we do not find evidence for unusual long injection functions at the Sun we favor a scenario with strong perpendicular transport in the interplanetary medium as explanation for the observations.Comment: The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Automated Coronal Hole Detection using Local Intensity Thresholding Techniques

We identify coronal holes using a histogram-based intensity thresholding technique and compare their properties to fast solar wind streams at three different points in the heliosphere. The thresholding technique was tested on EUV and X-ray images obtained using instruments onboard STEREO, SOHO and Hinode. The full-disk images were transformed into Lambert equal-area projection maps and partitioned into a series of overlapping sub-images from which local histograms were extracted. The histograms were used to determine the threshold for the low intensity regions, which were then classified as coronal holes or filaments using magnetograms from the SOHO/MDI. For all three instruments, the local thresholding algorithm was found to successfully determine coronal hole boundaries in a consistent manner. Coronal hole properties extracted using the segmentation algorithm were then compared with in situ measurements of the solar wind at 1 AU from ACE and STEREO. Our results indicate that flux tubes rooted in coronal holes expand super-radially within 1 AU and that larger (smaller) coronal holes result in longer (shorter) duration high-speed solar wind streams

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

From consumer to enterprise grade : How the choice of four UAS impacts point cloud quality

Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), combined with structure-from-motion photogrammetry, has already proven to be very powerful for a wide range of geoscience applications and different types of UAS are used for scientific and commercial purposes. However, the impact of the UAS used on the accuracy of the point clouds derived is not fully understood, especially for the quantitative analysis of geomorphic changes in complex terrain. Therefore, in this study, we aim to quantify the magnitude of systematic and random error in digital elevation models derived from four commonly used UAS (XR6/Sony α6000, Inspire 2/X4s, Phantom 4 Pro+, Mavic Pro) following different flight patterns. The vertical error of each elevation model is evaluated through comparison with 156 GNSS reference points and the normal distribution and spatial correlation of errors are analysed. Differences in mean errors (0.4 to 1.8 cm) for the XR6, Inspire 2 and Phantom 4 Pro are significant but not relevant for most geomorphological applications. The Mavic Pro shows lower accuracies with mean errors up to 4.3 cm, thus showing a higher influence of random errors. QQ plots revealed a deviation of errors from a normal distribution in almost all data. All UAS data except Mavic Pro exhibit a pure nugget semivariogram, suggesting spatially uncorrelated errors. Compared to the other UAS, the Mavic Pro data show trends (i.e. differences increase with distance across the survey—doming) and the range of semivariances is 10 times greater. The lower accuracy of Mavic Pro can be attributed to the lower GSD at the same flight altitude and most likely, the rolling shutter sensor has an effect on the accuracy of the camera calibration. Overall, our study shows that accuracies depend highly on the chosen data sampling strategy and that the survey design used here is not suitable for calibrating all types of UAS camera equally