Healthier prisons: The role of a prison visitors' centre

Since the inception of the prison as a ‘setting’ for health promotion, there has been a focus on how the health of those men and women who spend ‘time inside’ can at least be maintained and if possible, enhanced, during their prison sentence. This paper presents findings from a mainly qualitative evaluation of a prison visitors' centre in the UK. It reports experiences of prisoners' families, prisoners, prison staff, the local community and the ways in which the visitors' centre has contributed positively to their health and well-being. In addition, key stakeholders were interviewed to ascertain the role this visitors' centre has in policy frameworks related to re-offending. The findings from this evaluation underscore how the visitors' centre improved the quality of visits, and contributed towards the maintenance of family ties through the help and support it provides for families and prisoners. The paper concludes by suggesting that visitors' centres are an essential part of a modern prison service helping to address the government's health inequalities agenda

Multispacecraft observations and modeling of the 22/23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm

The magnetic storm of 22–23 June 2015 was one of the largest in the current solar cycle. We present in situ observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) and the Van Allen Probes (VAP) in the magnetotail, field‐aligned currents from AMPERE (Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response), and ionospheric flow data from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Our real‐time space weather alert system sent out a “red alert,” correctly predicting Kp indices greater than 8. We show strong outflow of ionospheric oxygen, dipolarizations in the MMS magnetometer data, and dropouts in the particle fluxes seen by the MMS Fast Plasma Instrument suite. At ionospheric altitudes, the AMPERE data show highly variable currents exceeding 20 MA. We present numerical simulations with the Block Adaptive Tree‐Solarwind ‐ Roe ‐ Upwind Scheme (BATS‐R‐US) global magnetohydrodynamic model linked with the Rice Convection Model. The model predicted the magnitude of the dipolarizations, and varying polar cap convection patterns, which were confirmed by DMSP measurements.Key PointsMHD models can reproduce well the dipolarizations seen at MMS and VAP. Space weather forecasting can predict Kp variations within 0.5 stepBeams of O+ flowing downstream appear to cross the separatrix and become a second energized population of the tail plasma sheetMHD models successfully reproduced the polar cap convection patterns and cross‐polar cap potential drops for a range of IMF conditionsPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134114/1/grl54522_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134114/2/grl54522-sup-0002-FigureS1.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134114/3/grl54522.pd

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures