Advances in land surface modelling

Land surface models have an increasing scope. Initially designed to capture the feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere as part of weather and climate prediction, they are now used as a critical tool in the urgent need to inform policy about land-use and water-use management in a world that is changing physically and economically. This paper outlines the way that models have evolved through this change of purpose and what might the future hold. It highlights the importance of distinguishing between advances in the science within the modelling components, with the advances of how to represent their interaction. This latter aspect of modelling is often overlooked but will increasingly manifest as an issue as the complexity of the system, the time and space scales of the system being modelled increase. These increases are due to technology, data availability and the urgency and range of the problems being studied. © 2021, The Author(s)

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material

Change in abdominal, but not femoral subcutaneous fat CT-radiodensity is associated with improved metabolic profile after bariatric surgery

Background and aims: Computed tomography (CT)-derived adipose tissue radiodensity represents a potential noninvasive surrogate marker for lipid deposition and obesity-related metabolic disease risk. We studied the effects of bariatric surgery on CT-derived adipose radiodensities in abdominal and femoral areas and their relationships to circulating metabolites in morbidly obese patients. Methods and results: We examined 23 morbidly obese women who underwent CT imaging before and 6 months after bariatric surgery. Fifteen healthy non-obese women served as controls. Radiodensities of the abdominal subcutaneous (SAT) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and the femoral SAT, adipose tissue masses were measured in all participants. Circulating metabolites were measured by NMR. At baseline, radiodensities of abdominal fat depots were lower in the obese patients as compared to the controls. Surprisingly, radiodensity of femoral SAT was higher in the obese as compared to the controls. In the abdominal SAT depot, radiodensity strongly correlated with SAT mass (r =-0.72, p < 0.001). After surgery, the radiodensities of abdominal fat increased significantly (both p < 0.01), while femoral SAT radio density remained unchanged. Circulating ApoB/ApoA-I, leucine, valine, and GlycA decreased, while glycine levels significantly increased as compared to pre-surgical values (all p < 0.05). The increase in abdominal fat radiodensity correlated negatively with the decreased levels of ApoB/ApoA-I ratio, leucine and GlycA (all p < 0.05). The increase in abdominal SAT density was significantly correlated with the decrease in the fat depot mass (r =-0.66, p = 0.002).Conclusion: Higher lipid content in abdominal fat depots, and lower content in femoral subcutaneous fat, constitute prominent pathophysiological features in morbid obesity. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of non-abdominal subcutaneous fat in the pathogenesis of obesity. Clinical trial registration number: NCT01373892. (C) 2020 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V

Fluvial sediment supply to a mega-delta reduced by shifting tropical-cyclone activity

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. The world's rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually, with a considerable fraction being sequestered in large deltas, home to over 500 million people. Most (more than 70 per cent) large deltas are under threat from a combination of rising sea levels, ground surface subsidence and anthropogenic sediment trapping, and a sustainable supply of fluvial sediment is therefore critical to prevent deltas being 'drowned' by rising relative sea levels. Here we combine suspended sediment load data from the Mekong River with hydrological model simulations to isolate the role of tropical cyclones in transmitting suspended sediment to one of the world's great deltas. We demonstrate that spatial variations in the Mekong's suspended sediment load are correlated (r = 0.765, P < 0.1) with observed variations in tropical-cyclone climatology, and that a substantial portion (32 per cent) of the suspended sediment load reaching the delta is delivered by runoff generated by rainfall associated with tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we estimate that the suspended load to the delta has declined by 52.6 ± 10.2 megatonnes over recent years (1981-2005), of which 33.0 ± 7.1 megatonnes is due to a shift in tropical-cyclone climatology. Consequently, tropical cyclones have a key role in controlling the magnitude of, and variability in, transmission of suspended sediment to the coast. It is likely that anthropogenic sediment trapping in upstream reservoirs is a dominant factor in explaining past, and anticipating future, declines in suspended sediment loads reaching the world's major deltas. However, our study shows that changes in tropical-cyclone climatology affect trends in fluvial suspended sediment loads and thus are also key to fully assessing the risk posed to vulnerable coastal systems

Rethinking data‐driven decision support in flood risk management for a big data age

Decision‐making in flood risk management is increasingly dependent on access to data, with the availability of data increasing dramatically in recent years. We are therefore moving towards an era of big data, with the added challenges that, in this area, data sources are highly heterogeneous, at a variety of scales, and include a mix of structured and unstructured data. The key requirement is therefore one of integration and subsequent analyses of this complex web of data. This paper examines the potential of a data‐driven approach to support decision‐making in flood risk management, with the goal of investigating a suitable software architecture and associated set of techniques to support a more data‐centric approach. The key contribution of the paper is a cloud‐based data hypercube that achieves the desired level of integration of highly complex data. This hypercube builds on innovations in cloud services for data storage, semantic enrichment and querying, and also features the use of notebook technologies to support open and collaborative scenario analyses in support of decision making. The paper also highlights the success of our agile methodology in weaving together cross‐disciplinary perspectives and in engaging a wide range of stakeholders in exploring possible technological futures for flood risk management

The current state of the use of large wood in river restoration and management

Trees fall naturally into rivers generating flow heterogeneity, inducing geomorphological features, and creating habitats for biota. Wood is increasingly used in restoration projects and the potential of wood acting as leaky barriers to deliver natural flood management by “slowing the flow” is recognised. However, wood in rivers can pose a risk to infrastructure and locally increase flood hazards. The aim of this paper is to provide an up-to-date summary of the benefits and risks associated with using wood to promote geomorphological processes to restore and manage rivers. This summary was developed through a workshop that brought together academics, river managers, restoration practitioners and consultants in the UK to share science and best-practice on wood in rivers. A consensus was developed on four key issues: (i) hydro-geomorphological effects, (ii) current use in restoration and management, (iii) uncertainties and risks, and (iv) tools and guidance required to inform process-based restoration and management