Multi-proxy constraints on the significance of covariant δ13C values in carbonate and organic carbon during the early Mississippian

This study investigates the covariation between carbonate and organic δ13C values in a proximal to distal transect of four outcrops in the Madison Limestone in the Western United States Rockies, combined with δ34S values of carbonate associated sulphate, the concentration of acid-insoluble material and measurements of total organic carbon. These new geochemical datasets not only allow for an evaluation of carbon isotope covariance during one of the largest perturbations to the global carbon cycle over the past 550 Myr, but also constrain the cause of the excursion in carbonate δ13C values. The results support the hypothesis that a period of anoxia did not play a role in generating the positive carbonate δ13C values, but rather favour interpretations by previous workers that the proliferation of land plants destabilized the Carboniferous carbon cycle, setting the stage for a significant change in the carbonate δ13C values of contemporaneous marine carbonates. These results also demonstrate that one of the largest perturbations to the global carbon cycle did not produce synchronous variations in carbonate and organic δ13C values, emphasizing the importance of local depositional controls on carbon isotope covariance in the geological record in both modern and ancient environments

Methods for confidence interval estimation of a ratio parameter with application to location quotients

BACKGROUND: The location quotient (LQ) ratio, a measure designed to quantify and benchmark the degree of relative concentration of an activity in the analysis of area localization, has received considerable attention in the geographic and economics literature. This index can also naturally be applied in the context of population health to quantify and compare health outcomes across spatial domains. However, one commonly observed limitation of LQ is its widespread use as only a point estimate without an accompanying confidence interval. METHODS: In this paper we present statistical methods that can be used to construct confidence intervals for location quotients. The delta and Fieller's methods are generic approaches for a ratio parameter and the generalized linear modelling framework is a useful re-parameterization particularly helpful for generating profile-likelihood based confidence intervals for the location quotient. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of each of the analytic approaches and a health utilization data set is used for illustration. RESULTS: Both the simulation results as well as the findings from the empirical data show that the different analytical methods produce very similar confidence limits for location quotients. When incidence of outcome is not rare and sample sizes are large, the confidence limits are almost indistinguishable. The confidence limits from the generalized linear model approach might be preferable in small sample situations. CONCLUSION: LQ is a useful measure which allows quantification and comparison of health and other outcomes across defined geographical regions. It is a very simple index to compute and has a straightforward interpretation. Reporting this estimate with appropriate confidence limits using methods presented in this paper will make the measure particularly attractive for policy and decision makers

Effect of end-wall riblets on radial turbine performance

This paper presents a detailed study of the impact of manufacturing residual riblets at the rotor hub surface of a radial inflow turbine on the flow within the rotor passages and their contribution to drag reduction. Numerical analysis has been used to study the effects of those features at design point conditions. Riblets with different height and spacing have been examined to determine the riblet geometry where the maximum drag reduction is achieved. The relative height of the riblets to rotor inlet blade height was introduced to generalise the results. At the end of this study the results were compared with the available data in literature. It was found that the introduction of riblets could reduce the wall shear stress at the hub surface, while they contribute to increasing the streamwise vorticity within the rotor passage. For the geometries tested, the minimum drag was achieved using riblets with relative height hrel = 2.5% equivalent to 19.3 wall units. The results revealed that the spacing between riblets have a minor effect on their performance, this is due to the size of the streamwise vortex above the hub surface which will be discussed in this work

Socioeconomic inequalities in pregnancy outcome associated with Down syndrome: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate socioeconomic inequalities in outcome of pregnancy associated with Down syndrome (DS) compared with other congenital anomalies screened for during pregnancy. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective population-based registry study (East Midlands & South Yorkshire in England). PARTICIPANTS: All registered cases of DS and nine selected congenital anomalies with poor prognostic outcome (the UK Fetal Anomaly Screening Programme (FASP)9) with an end of pregnancy date between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2007. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Poisson regression models were used to explore outcome measures, including socioeconomic variation in rates of anomaly; antenatal detection; pregnancy outcome; live birth incidence and neonatal mortality. Deprivation was measured using the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 at super output area level. RESULTS: There were 1151 cases of DS and 1572 cases of the nine severe anomalies combined. The overall rate of antenatal detection was 57% for DS, which decreased with increasing deprivation (rate ratio comparing the most deprived tenth with the least deprived: 0.76 (0.60 to 0.97)). Antenatal detection rates were considerably higher for FASP9 anomalies (86%), with no evidence of a trend with deprivation (0.99 95% CI (0.84 to 1.17)). The termination of pregnancy rate following antenatal diagnosis was higher for DS (86%) than the FASP9 anomalies (70%). Both groups showed wide socioeconomic variation in the termination of pregnancy rate (rate ratio: DS: 0.76 (0.58 to 0.99); FASP9 anomalies: 0.80 (0.65 to 0.97)). Consequently, socioeconomic inequalities in live birth and neonatal mortality rates associated with these anomalies arise that were not observed in utero. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities exist in the antenatal detection of DS, and subsequent termination rates are much higher for DS than other anomalies. Termination rates for all anomalies are lower in more deprived areas leading to wide socioeconomic inequalities in live born infants with a congenital anomaly, particularly DS, and subsequent neonatal mortality

Foot and ankle injuries during the Athens 2004 Olympic Games

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Major, rare and complex incidents can occur at any mass-gathering sporting event and team medical staff should be appropriately prepared for these. One such event, the Athens Olympic Games in 2004, presented a significant sporting and medical challenge. This study concerns an epidemiological analysis of foot and ankle injuries during the Games.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An observational, epidemiological survey was used to analyse injuries in all sport tournaments (men's and women's) over the period of the Games.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 624 injuries (525 soft tissue injuries and 99 bony injuries) were reported. The most frequent diagnoses were contusions, sprains, fractures, dislocations and lacerations. Significantly more injuries in male (58%) versus female athletes (42%) were recorded. The incidence, diagnosis and cause of injuries differed substantially between the team sports.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our experience from the Athens Olympic Games will inform the development of public health surveillance systems for future Olympic Games, as well as other similar mass events.</p

Methods for Bayesian inversion of seismic data

The purpose of Bayesian seismic inversion is to combine information derived from seismic data and prior geological knowledge to determine a posterior probability distribution over parameters describing the elastic and geological properties of the subsurface. Typically the subsurface is modelled by a cellular grid model containing thousands or millions of cells within which these parameters are to be determined. Thus such inversions are computationally expensive due to the size of the parameter space (being proportional to the number of grid cells) over which the posterior is to be determined. Therefore, in practice approximations to Bayesian seismic inversion must be considered. A particular, existing approximate workflow is described in this thesis: the so-called two-stage inversion method explicitly splits the inversion problem into elastic and geological inversion stages. These two stages sequentially estimate the elastic parameters given the seismic data, and then the geological parameters given the elastic parameter estimates, respectively. In this thesis a number of methodologies are developed which enhance the accuracy of this approximate workflow. To reduce computational cost, existing elastic inversion methods often incorporate only simplified prior information about the elastic parameters. Thus a method is introduced which transforms such results, obtained using prior information specified using only two-point geostatistics, into new estimates containing sophisticated multi-point geostatistical prior information. The method uses a so-called deep neural network, trained using only synthetic instances (or `examples') of these two estimates, to apply this transformation. The method is shown to improve the resolution and accuracy (by comparison to well measurements) of elastic parameter estimates determined for a real hydrocarbon reservoir. It has been shown previously that so-called mixture density network (MDN) inversion can be used to solve geological inversion analytically (and thus very rapidly and efficiently) but only under certain assumptions about the geological prior distribution. A so-called prior replacement operation is developed here, which can be used to relax these requirements. It permits the efficient MDN method to be incorporated into general stochastic geological inversion methods which are free from the restrictive assumptions. Such methods rely on the use of Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling, which estimate the posterior (over the geological parameters) by producing a correlated chain of samples from it. It is shown that this approach can yield biased estimates of the posterior. Thus an alternative method which obtains a set of non-correlated samples from the posterior is developed, avoiding the possibility of bias in the estimate. The new method was tested on a synthetic geological inversion problem; its results compared favourably to those of Gibbs sampling (a MCMC method) on the same problem, which exhibited very significant bias. The geological prior information used in seismic inversion can be derived from real images which bear similarity to the geology anticipated within the target region of the subsurface. Such so-called training images are not always available from which this information (in the form of geostatistics) may be extracted. In this case appropriate training images may be generated by geological experts. However, this process can be costly and difficult. Thus an elicitation method (based on a genetic algorithm) is developed here which obtains the appropriate geostatistics reliably and directly from a geological expert, without the need for training images. 12 experts were asked to use the algorithm (individually) to determine the appropriate geostatistics for a physical (target) geological image. The majority of the experts were able to obtain a set of geostatistics which were consistent with the true (measured) statistics of the target image

Fantastically reasonable: ambivalence in the representation of science and technology in super-hero comics

A long-standing contrast in academic discussions of science concerns its perceived disenchanting or enchanting public impact. In one image, science displaces magical belief in unknowable entities with belief in knowable forces and processes and reduces all things to a single technical measure. In the other, science is itself magically transcendent, expressed in technological adulation and an image of scientists as wizards or priests. This paper shows that these contrasting images are also found in representations of science in super-hero comics, which, given their lowly status in Anglo-American culture, would seem an unlikely place to find such commonality with academic discourse. It is argued that this is evidence that the contrast constitutes an ambivalence arising from the dilemmas that science poses; they are shared rhetorics arising from and reflexively feeding a set of broad cultural concerns. This is explored through consideration of representations of science at a number of levels in the comics, with particular focus on the science-magic constellation, and enchanted and disenchanted imagery in representations of technology and scientists. It is concluded that super-hero comics are one cultural arena where the public meaning of science is actively worked out, an activity that unites “expert” and “non-expert” alike

Lives saved by Global Fund-supported HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria programs: estimation approach and results between 2003 and end-2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.4 million HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral treatment (ARV), 3.3 million new smear-positive tuberculosis cases detected in DOTS (directly observed TB treatment, short course) programs, and 46 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) delivered. We estimated the corresponding lives saved using adaptations of existing epidemiological estimation models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By end-2007, an estimated 681,000 lives (95% uncertainty range 619,000-774,000) were saved and 1,097,000 (993,000-1,249,000) life-years gained by ARV. DOTS treatment would have saved 1.63 million lives (1.09 - 2.17 million) when compared against no treatment, or 408,000 lives (265,000-551,000) when compared against non-DOTS treatment. ITN distributions in countries with stable endemic <it>falciparum </it>malaria were estimated to have achieved protection from malaria for 26 million of child-years at risk cumulatively, resulting in 130,000 (27,000-232,000) under-5 deaths prevented.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results illustrate the scale of mortality effects that supported programs may have achieved in recent years, despite margins of uncertainty and covering only selected intervention components. Evidence-based evaluation of disease impact of the programs supported by the Global Fund with international and in-country partners must be strengthened using population-level data on intervention coverage and demographic outcomes, information on quality of services, and trends in disease burdens recorded in national health information systems.</p