Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

International audienceInherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM) are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS) from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s) under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases

Analysis of fatigue, fatique-crack propagation, and fracture data

Analytical methods have been developed for consolidation of fatigue, fatigue-crack propagation, and fracture data for use in design of metallic aerospace structural components. To evaluate these methods, a comprehensive file of data on 2024 and 7075 aluminums, Ti-6A1-4V, and 300M and D6Ac steels was established. Data were obtained from both published literature and unpublished reports furnished by aerospace companies. Fatigue and fatigue-crack-propagation analyses were restricted to information obtained from constant-amplitude load or strain cycling of specimens in air at room temperature. Fracture toughness data were from tests of center-cracked tension panels, part-through crack specimens, and compact-tension specimens

Optimization of sample preparation and green color imaging using the mNeonGreen fluorescent protein in bacterial cells for photoactivated localization microscopy.

mNeonGreen fluorescent protein is capable of photo-switching, hence in principle applicable for super-resolution imaging. However, difficult-to-control blinking kinetics that lead to simultaneous emission of multiple nearby mNeonGreen molecules impedes its use for PALM. Here, we determined the on- and off- switching rate and the influence of illumination power on the simultaneous emission. Increasing illumination power reduces the probability of simultaneous emission, but not enough to generate high quality PALM images. Therefore, we introduce a simple data post-processing step that uses temporal and spatial information of molecule localizations to further reduce artifacts arising from simultaneous emission of nearby emitters. We also systematically evaluated various sample preparation steps to establish an optimized protocol to preserve cellular morphology and fluorescence signal. In summary, we propose a workflow for super-resolution imaging with mNeonGreen based on optimization of sample preparation, data acquisition and simple post-acquisition data processing. Application of our protocol enabled us to resolve the expected double band of bacterial cell division protein DivIVA, and to visualize that the chromosome organization protein ParB organized into sub-clusters instead of the typically observed diffraction-limited foci. We expect that our workflow allows a broad use of mNeonGreen for super-resolution microscopy, which is so far difficult to achieve

Dynamics of positive- and negative-mass solitons in optical lattices and inverted traps

We study the dynamics of one-dimensional solitons in the attractive and repulsive Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) loaded into an optical lattice (OL), which is combined with an external parabolic potential. First, we demonstrate analytically that, in the repulsive BEC, where the soliton is of the gap type, its effective mass is \emph{negative}. This gives rise to a prediction for the experiment: such a soliton cannot be not held by the usual parabolic trap, but it can be captured (performing harmonic oscillations) by an anti-trapping inverted parabolic potential. We also study the motion of the soliton a in long system, concluding that, in the cases of both the positive and negative mass, it moves freely, provided that its amplitude is below a certain critical value; above it, the soliton's velocity decreases due to the interaction with the OL. At a late stage, the damped motion becomes chaotic. We also investigate the evolution of a two-soliton pulse in the attractive model. The pulse generates a persistent breather, if its amplitude is not too large; otherwise, fusion into a single fundamental soliton takes place. Collisions between two solitons captured in the parabolic trap or anti-trap are considered too. Depending on their amplitudes and phase difference, the solitons either perform stable oscillations, colliding indefinitely many times, or merge into a single soliton. Effects reported in this work for BECs can also be formulated for optical solitons in nonlinear photonic crystals. In particular, the capture of the negative-mass soliton in the anti-trap implies that a bright optical soliton in a self-defocusing medium with a periodic structure of the refractive index may be stable in an anti-waveguide.Comment: 22pages, 9 figures, submitted to Journal of Physics

A Longitudinal Study of Power Relations in a British Olympic Sport Organization

The purpose was to examine the power relations during a change of culture in an Olympic sports organisation in the United Kingdom. We conducted a 16-month longitudinal study combining Action Research and Grounded Theory. Data collection included ethnography and focus group discussion (n=10), with athletes, coaches, parents, and the national governing body. We supplemented these with twenty-six interviews with stakeholders, and we analysed data using grounded theory. The core concept found was power relations further divided into systemic power and informational power. Systemic power (e.g. formal authority to reward or punish) denotes how the NGB sought to implement change from the top-down and impose new strategies on the organisation. The informational power (e.g. tacit feeling of oneness and belonging) represented how individuals and subunits mobilised coalitions to support or obstruct the sports organisation's agenda. Olympic sports organisations should consider the influence of s power when undertaking a change of culture