MPM – The Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s monetary policy model

March 2011 marked the introduction of the MNB’s Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both inflation forecasting and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to the previous conditional projections, the MPM offers an endogenous definition for both the policy rate and the exchange rate. Given the forward-looking nature of this model, expectations by economic agents play a key role in monetary transmission; therefore, instead of one-off interest rate measures, the achievement of inflation target is guaranteed by the entire interest rate path over the forecast horizon. In the following, we discuss the underlying structure and logic behind the MPM, as well as the functioning of key behavioural equations, while also examining how the channels of monetary transmission appear in the model. We also present our motivations regarding the model switch and review how developing and operating this new tool have changed our current processes.forecasting, monetary policy, inflation targeting, macroeconomic model.

Scattering fidelity in chaotic microwave billiards

In this work microwave experiments are used to study the time dependent stability of quantum systems against perturbations. For flat microwave cavities the corresponding wave equation is equivalent to the Schrödinger equation, therefore measurements with so called microwave billiards are suitable for studying quantum-mechanical questions experimentally. To quantify the stability of quantum time evolution against perturbations Peres introduced the overlap of the time-evolution of the same initial state under an unperturbed and a perturbed Hamiltonian. This quantity is known as fidelity or Loschmidt echo; it can be determined in microwave billiards using the concept of scattering fidelity, which for chaotic systems and weak coupling of the measuring antenna approaches the ordinary fidelity. In the first part of this work a study of the fidelity decay in classically chaotic microwave billiard for a local, pistonlike boundary perturbation is presented. Experimentally a predicted nonmonotonic crossover from the Fermi golden rule to the escape-rate regime of the Loschmidt echo decay with increasing local boundary perturbation is verified. In particular, pronounced oscillations of the decay rate as a function of the piston position have been observed in the experiments which quantitatively agree with corresponding theoretical results based on a refined semiclassical approach for local boundary perturbations. In the second part of this work the scattering fidelity decay in a microwave billiard is studied for a perturbation, where the coupling to the outside is varied. The resulting quantity, coupling fidelity, is experimentally studied first for an attached wave guide with variable opening of a slit. Thereby the effect on the fidelity due to the change of boundary condition was larger than the effect of the change of coupling. Thus instead of using a channel for the coupling an antenna was introduced and three different terminations attached. Terminations of reflexion on open and closed end and total absorption were compared. Quantitative agreement is found with the theory, which is obtained from a modified Verbaarschot, Weidenmüller, Zirnbauer (VWZ) approach

A dynamic and relational perspective on vulnerability and fear of crime : The role of physical, psychological, and social factors as well as life events and neighborhood contexts using a between-within person approach

This thesis investigates the usefulness of the concept of vulnerability in explaining the fear of crime. Previous vulnerability approaches in fear-of-crime research are reworked and expanded, integrating a stronger temporal perspective and differentiating more precisely between persons and their contexts. It is demonstrated that between-person differences and within-person changes of most vulnerability factors (e.g., personality traits, financial strain, and supportive networks) are related to fear of crime. This longitudinal perspective provides more reliable support for the vulnerability approach than previous cross-sectional studies because unobserved heterogeneity is reduced. Victimization leads to increased perceived environmental adversity although not having the hypothesized influence on the locus of control. The impact of (early) life events on fear of crime and whether the examined theoretical mechanisms mediate vulnerability factors is investigated in cross-sectional analyses, suggesting that early life events influence fear of crime. The theoretically derived vulnerability mechanisms mediate all investigated vulnerability factors. An examination of neighborhood characteristics and their spatial lags shows that social disadvantage in the (adjacent) neighborhood has a strong contextual influence on fear of crime. Vulnerability links people and environments, indicating an interactive relationship between individual vulnerability factors and external stressors (neighborhood characteristics and victimization). The most substantial interaction is that older people are less affected by neighborhood characteristics than younger people

Channel cross-correlations in transport through complex media

Measuring transmission between four antennas in microwave cavities, we investigate directly the channel cross-correlations $C$ of the cross sections $\sigma^{ab}$ from antenna at $\vec{r}_a$ to antenna $\vec{r}_b$. Specifically we look for the $C_\Sigma$ and $C_\Lambda$, where the only difference is that $C_\Lambda$ has none of the four channels in common, whereas $C_\Sigma$ has exactly one channel in common. We find experimentally that these two channel cross-correlations are anti-phased as a function of the channel coupling strength, as predicted by theory. This anti-correlation is essential to give the correct values for the universal conductance fluctuations. To obtain a good agreement between experiment and predictions from random matrix theory the effect of absorption had to be included.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

SDG performance : a study on the difference between large Portuguese Companies’ own assessment and consumers’ perception

The 2030 Agenda of the United Nations has formulated the Sustainable Development Goals, which cover all areas of a sustainable world. In addition to the member states, companies also frequently incorporate these goals. The integration of Sustainable Development Goals is a central part of sustainable management. This thesis examines the self-assessment and integration of sustainability development goals by large Portuguese companies and the perception of this integration by consumers. The central goal is to identify possible differences. For this purpose, self-perceptions of 60 major Portuguese companies and consumer perceptions are collected. The Obsevatorio ODS project group at the Center for Responsible business has already accumulated data regarding companies’ self-perception. In addition, quantitative study collects data on consumers’ perceptions of these companies. The data of the company’s self assessment is compared to the perception of the consumers. Self-perception has divided the companies into four clusters. The clusters assess the quality of integration. Consumers also assign the same companies to the clusters. It was found that the perceptions of the two parties do not correlate. This means that the (self-)assessment of Sustainable Development Goals performance differs significantly between companies and consumers. Furthermore, it can be stated that the underlying discrepancy in perceptions can be on the part of both companies and consumers. Communication measures are not the cause of distortion. Nevertheless, consumers expect SDG integration from companies because they want to consume sustainably.A Agenda das Nações Unidas para 2030 formulou os Objectivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, que cobrem todas as áreas de um mundo sustentável. Para além dos Estados membros, as empresas também incorporam frequentemente estes objectivos. A integração dos Objectivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável é uma parte central da gestão sustentável. Esta tese examina a auto-avaliação e integração dos objectivos de desenvolvimento sustentável pelas grandes empresas portuguesas e a percepção desta integração pelos consumidores. O objectivo central é a identificação de possíveis diferenças. Para este efeito, são recolhidas as percepções de 60 grandes empresas portuguesas e as percepções dos consumidores. O grupo do projecto Obsevatorio ODS no Centro de Negócios Responsáveis já acumulou dados relativos à autopercepção das empresas. Além disso, o estudo quantitativo recolhe dados sobre as percepções dos consumidores relativamente a estas empresas. Os dados da auto-avaliação da empresa são comparados com a percepção dos consumidores. A auto-percepção dividiu as empresas em quatro clusters. Os clusters avaliam a qualidade da integração. Os consumidores também designam as mesmas empresas para os clusters. Verificou-se que as percepções das duas partes não estão correlacionadas. Isto significa que a (auto)avaliação do desempenho dos Objectivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável difere significativamente entre as empresas e os consumidores. Além disso, pode afirmar-se que a discrepância subjacente nas percepções pode ser da parte tanto das empresas como dos consumidores. As medidas de comunicação não são a causa de distorção. No entanto, os consumidores esperam a integração dos GDS por parte das empresas porque querem consumir de forma sustentável

Microwave fidelity studies by varying antenna coupling

The fidelity decay in a microwave billiard is considered, where the coupling to an attached antenna is varied. The resulting quantity, coupling fidelity, is experimentally studied for three different terminators of the varied antenna: a hard wall reflection, an open wall reflection, and a 50 Ohm load, corresponding to a totally open channel. The model description in terms of an effective Hamiltonian with a complex coupling constant is given. Quantitative agreement is found with the theory obtained from a modified VWZ approach [Verbaarschot et al, Phys. Rep. 129, 367 (1985)].Comment: 9 pages 5 figur

Old age and fear of crime: cross-national evidence for a decreased impact of neighbourhood disadvantage in older age

Fear of crime among older people has been a frequent topic in ageing research, criminology and urban studies. The ‘environmental docility hypothesis’ assumes that older people are more vulnerable to adverse neighbourhood conditions than younger age groups. Yet, few studies have tested this influential hypothesis using samples of respondents covering the complete adult lifespan. Looking at fear of crime, we investigated the person–environment interaction of age and neighbourhood disadvantage, using two independent surveys comprising 12,620 respondents aged 25–90 years residing in 435 neighbourhoods in four cities in Germany and Australia. We used multi-level analysis and cross-level interactions to model age-differential effects of neighbourhood disadvantage on fear. Contrary to the hypothesis, we found a weakening of neighbourhood effects on fear with age. The strong effect of neighbourhood disadvantage on fear of crime dropped by around half from the youngest (25 years) to the oldest age (90 years) in both countries. Younger people were almost as fearful as older people in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods, but older people were considerably more fearful than younger ages in better-off neighbourhoods. We found limited empirical support for the assumption that this diminished association between neighbourhood disadvantage and fear can be explained by the stronger neighbourhood attachment of older people. The limitations of the analysis and potential future directions of research are discussed

Mittler zwischen Kirche und säkularer Mediengesellschaft? Die Mediendienstleistungen des Sankt Michaelsbunds und des Borromäusvereins

Der Sankt Michaelsbund und der Borromäusverein spielen eine herausragende Rolle in der katholischen Büchereiarbeit. Sie bieten für die in der Mehrzahl von ehrenamtlichen Kräften geführten Katholischen öffentlichen Bibliotheken Dienstleistungen verschiedenster Art an. Diese Dienstleistungen reichen von einer Besprechungszeitschrift und Bestandsverzeichnissen über fachstellentypische Dienstleistungen wie EDV-Beratung oder Unterstützung bei Bibliotheksbau- und einrichtung bis hin zur Gestaltung von Websites für die Büchereien. Die Fragestellung der hier vorliegenden Arbeit ist, ob Sankt Michaelsbund und Borromäusverein mit ihren vielfältigen Mediendienstleistungen als Mittler zwischen Kirche und säkularer Mediengesellschaft gesehen werden können. Die Frage kann dahingehend beantwortet werden, dass die Katholische Kirche durch die Büchereien Orte der Kommunikation und Mediennutzung anbieten kann, die diese Schnittstellenfunktion einnehmen können. Allerdings müssen in den Bibliotheken verschiedene Kriterien wie z. B. ein ausgeglichener und alle Sachgebiete abdeckender Bestandsaufbau erfüllt und bibliothekarische Standards eingehalten werden

Case study on prioritizing test cases and selecting the most qualified validation environment using an OEM’s transmission application as an example

Using the example of an Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) transmission application, it can be seen that large parts are currently being validated using real, physical prototype vehicles. Accordingly, validation in the automotive product development process (PDP) is taking place very late. In addition to this need for time optimization, another challenge is the complete validation of all variants of product generations in an OEM’s product portfolio with, among other things, increasingly divergent, country-specific engine/transmission combinations. An advance shift of validation activities via simulation or test benches into the Early Phase in the Model of PGE – Product Generation Engineering can compensate these current disadvantages so that more extensive test cases can be mapped at an early stage. The selection of the validation environment is influenced by various factors such as the time in the PDP and the associated possible accuracy or restrictions due to limited or inaccurate representation of the environmental system. The knowledge gained from the specification or the variation of solution-open elements (e.g. product properties and functions) in the early phase of PGE allows early identification of critical subsystems. Nevertheless, there is a lack of systematic approaches that supports the product developer in choosing the most qualified validation environment depending on the variation shares. In the context of the paper, a case study is used to show that existing approaches have so far not been able to support the product developer with sufficient accuracy in choosing the most qualified validation environment. Furthermore, research gaps in the prioritization of test cases in the context of the PDP are identified. Finally, a first approach is presented on how existing methodological approaches can be further developed and merged to close the identified gaps