Synergistic effects between global warming and water quality change on modelled macrophyte species richness

Submerged freshwater macrophytes are crucial for the functioning of lakes. Their growth and survival follow environmental conditions like light, temperature, and nutrient availability. Hence, the impending increase in water temperature as well as changes of nutrients and turbidity will lead to changes in macrophyte geographic and depth distribution: Herein, we assess these potential changes. We apply an eco-physiological macrophyte growth model to simulate biomass growth and survival of virtual species defined by random trait combinations within expert-derived trait ranges for oligotraphentic, mesotraphentic, and eutraphentic species groups in deep lakes in Bavaria, Germany, which cover clear, moderate, and turbid lake conditions. The emergent potential species richness is compared with empirically observed species richness to evaluate general predictions for current conditions. Thereafter, we apply the model to scenarios of temperature increase and of turbidity and nutrient change to assess potential changes in species richness and the influence of species\u27 traits on being an environmental change ‘winner\u27 or ‘loser\u27. We find a cross-lake, hump-shaped pattern of potential species richness along depth. This largely reflects observed patterns, although mismatches were also detected and might be explained by missing processes and environmental heterogeneity within the lake. Rising temperature leads to increased richness of potential species in all lake types, species groups, and depths. Turbidity and nutrient change effects depend on depth and lake type. ‘Loser species\u27 under increased turbidity and nutrient level are light consumptive and sensible to disturbances, while ‘winner species\u27 have a high biomass production. These findings show that the hump-shaped depth distributions of submerged macrophyte diversity can emerge solely considering eco-physiology. The differential responses to environmental changes imply that management measures must account for lake type because those responses can have opposite trends depending on lake depth and type

Integrating Julia Code into the Unity Game Engine to Dive into Aquatic Plant Growth

Ecologists use process-based ecological models to predict biodiversity, but their complex results can be challenging to com- municate. This challenge can be addressed through interactive visual simulations, which are easy to create with sophisticated game engines such as Unity. However, mechanistic models are increasingly written in the Julia programming language and Unity does not support its integration. In this paper, we present a Julia-Unity plugin that allows direct coupling of Julia and Unity codes. It was developed in a user-centred, iterative manner. The given use case of an immersive, interactive simulation of a macrophyte growth model was tailored to public outreach and science communication. The resulting, rather versatile plugin is a novel tool that features immersive visualisations of Julia-coded simulation models, ecological or otherwise. Due to the features of a game engine, they are particularly apt to engage a wider audience, facilitate collaboration and interdisciplinary work, and enable the exploration of complex systems

Alpine plants are on the move: Quantifying distribution shifts of Australian alpine plants through time

Aim Alpine plant species’ distributions are thought to have been shifting to higher elevations in response to climate change. By moving upslope, species can occupy cooler and more suitable environments as climate change warms their current ranges. Despite evidence of upslope migration in the northern hemisphere, there is limited evidence for elevational shifts in southern hemisphere plants. Our study aimed to determine if alpine plants in Australia have migrated upslope in the last 2 to 6 decades. Location Kosciuszko National Park, NSW, Australia. Methods We collated historic occurrence data for 36 Australian alpine plant species from herbarium specimens and historic field observations and combined these historic data with modern occurrence data collected in the field. Results Eleven of the thirty-six species had shifted upslope in mean elevation and four species showed downslope elevational shifts. The rate of change for upslope shifts varied between 4 and 10 m per year and the rate of change for most downslope shifts was between 4 and 8 m per year, with one species shifting downslope at a high rate of 18 m per year. Additionally, some species showed shifts upward in their upper range edge and/or upward or downward shifts in their lower range edge. Five species also showed range contractions in the difference between their lower and upper range edges over time, while two showed range expansions. We found no significant differences in elevational shifts through time among herbaceous dicotyledons, herbaceous monocotyledons and shrubs. Main Conclusions Plant elevational shifts are occurring rapidly in the Australian alpine zone. This may allow species to persist under climate change. However, if current warming trends continue, several species within the Australian alpine zone will likely run out of suitable habitat within a century

Insights into the relationship between hydraulic safety, hydraulic efficiency and tree structural complexity from terrestrial laser scanning and fractal analysis

The potential of trees to adapt to drier and hotter climates will determine the future state of forests in the wake of a changing climate. Attributes connected to the hydraulic network are likely to determine a tree’s ability to endure drought. However, how a tree’s architectural attributes related to drought tolerance remains understudied. To fill this gap, we compared the structural complexity of 71 trees of 18 species obtained from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) with key hydraulic thresholds. We used three measures of xylem safety, i.e., the water potential at 12%, 50%, and 88% loss of hydraulic conductance (P12, P50, P88) and specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) to assess the trees’ drought tolerance. TLS data were used to generate 3D attributes of each tree and to construct quantitative structure models (QSMs) to characterize the branching patterns. Fractal analysis (box-dimension approach) was used to evaluate the overall structural complexity of the trees (Db) by integrating horizontal and vertical extent as well as internal branching patterns. Our findings revealed a significant relationship between the structural complexity (Db) and the three measures of xylem safety along with Ks. Tree species with low structural complexity developed embolism-resistant xylem at the cost of hydraulic efficiency. Our findings also revealed that the Db had a stronger and more significant relationship with branch hydraulic safety and efficiency compared to other structural attributes examined. We conclude that Db seems to be a robust descriptor of tree architecture that relates to important branch hydraulic properties of a tree

Hybridization may aid evolutionary rescue of an endangered East African passerine

Introgressive hybridization is a process that enables gene flow across species barriers through the backcrossing of hybrids into a parent population. This may make genetic material, potentially including relevant environmental adaptations, rapidly available in a gene pool. Consequently, it has been postulated to be an important mechanism for enabling evolutionary rescue, that is the recovery of threatened populations through rapid evolutionary adaptation to novel environments. However, predicting the likelihood of such evolutionary rescue for individual species remains challenging. Here, we use the example of Zosterops silvanus, an endangered East African highland bird species suffering from severe habitat loss and fragmentation, to investigate whether hybridization with its congener Zosterops flavilateralis might enable evolutionary rescue of its Taita Hills population. To do so, we employ an empirically parameterized individual-based model to simulate the species' behaviour, physiology and genetics. We test the population's response to different assumptions of mating behaviour and multiple scenarios of habitat change. We show that as long as hybridization does take place, evolutionary rescue of Z. silvanus is likely. Intermediate hybridization rates enable the greatest long-term population growth, due to trade-offs between adaptive and maladaptive introgressed alleles. Habitat change did not have a strong effect on population growth rates, as Z. silvanus is a strong disperser and landscape configuration is therefore not the limiting factor for hybridization. Our results show that targeted gene flow may be a promising avenue to help accelerate the adaptation of endangered species to novel environments, and demonstrate how to combine empirical research and mechanistic modelling to deliver species-specific predictions for conservation planning.Peer reviewe

The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type

International audienceEcosystems respond in various ways to disturbances. Quantifying ecological stability therefore requires inspecting multiple stability properties, such as resistance, recovery, persistence and invariability. Correlations among these properties can reduce the dimensionality of stability, simplifying the study of environmental effects on ecosystems. A key question is how the kind of disturbance affects these correlations. We here investigated the effect of three disturbance types (random, species-specific, local) applied at four intensity levels, on the dimensionality of stability at the population and community level. We used previously parameterized models that represent five natural communities, varying in species richness and the number of trophic levels. We found that disturbance type but not intensity affected the dimensionality of stability and only at the population level. The dimensionality of stability also varied greatly among species and communities. Therefore, studying stability cannot be simplified to using a single metric and multi-dimensionalassessments are still to be recommended

Mapping human pressures on biodiversity across the planet uncovers anthropogenic threat complexes

Abstract Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. Overlap in the distributions of different drivers have important implications for biodiversity change attribution and the potential for interactive effects. However, the spatial relationships among different drivers and whether they differ between the terrestrial and marine realm has yet to be examined. We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land-use, resource exploitation, pollution, alien species potential and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the drivers and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different regions of the world. We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas with high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g. in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution), whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g. in the Indo-Pacific with high climate change and high fishing). We show that different regions of the world can be defined by Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. We identify 11 ATCs that can be used to test hypotheses about patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem change, especially about the joint effects of multiple drivers. Our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic change, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world.Peer reviewe