A Simple Global Perspective on the US Slowdown, Boom-Bust Cycles and the Rise of Protectionism

The global economy has experienced several significant developments during the recent years: the rising role of giant Asian economies in international trade; the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession in the US, with its propagation to the rest of the world; the sharp rise and subsequent burst of commodity prices over 2006-2009. In this paper we use a multi-region DSGE model for the global economy as a simple framework to understand the global response to these shocks and the importance of the propagation to different regions. The model is equipped to jointly determine exchange rates, trade balances and commodity prices across the world. We carry out several simulations with the model. First, we consider the US slowdown and its international propagation. Second, we explore a global boom-bust cycle driven by overoptimistic forecasts for productivity and their relationship with current account rebalancing. Finally, we analyze the global economic consequences of protectionism. We find that the effects in commodity prices, global output and demand tend to be amplified if the real exchange rates and real wages are more sluggish to adjust in some regions.

Facultades, funciones y atribuiciones de los miembros del H. ayuntamiento municipal

El presente ensayo tiene como finalidad analizar el sentido histórico del Municipio el marco jurídico de las funciones, facultades y atribuciones de los integrantes del Ayuntamiento Municipal, y la Ley Orgánica Municipal del Estado de México así como el Bando Municipal de los Ayuntamientos, dentro de los cuales se encuentran uno a uno marcadas las facultades de los servidores públicos, tan es así que no se nos debe olvidar que los gobiernos por medio de las personas que en su momento los representan, deben de hacer valer lo que al pie de la letra dicen las leyes, sin que exista dolo o vicio alguno en su aplicación

On equilibrium existence in infinite horizon economies

In sequential economies with finite or infinite-lived real assets in positive net supply, we introduce constraints on the amount of borrowing in terms of the market value of physical endowments. We show that, when utility functions are either unbounded and separable in states of nature or separable in commodities, these borrowing constraints not only preclude Ponzi schemes but also induce endogenous Radner bounds on short-sales. Therefore, we obtain existence of equilibrium. Moreover, equilibrium also exists when both assets are numerarie and utility functions are quasilinear in the commodity used as numerarie.Equilibrium, Infinite horizon incomplete markets, Infinite-lived real assets.

Exploratory Research for the Improvement of the Teaching of Spanish as a Second Language in a Spanish Public Center†

This paper is part of the R&D project DIPURE (El Discurso Público sobre los Refugiados en España in English Public Discourse on Refugees in Spain) and it is one of the research lines of the research group “Andalusian Circle of Applied Linguistics, HUM-194” on the study of teaching Spanish as a second language (SSL) for immigrants and refugees. Its objective is to establish a profile of Spanish second language (SL) students at the Official School of Languages (OSL). To meet this objective, we carried out an exploratory study based on mixed quantitative–qualitative methods, including, among other methods, participant observation and a Likert-type questionnaire used with students of the OSL in Granada, from level A1 to B2. The data obtained has allowed us to reflect on the migration process in Spain and on the work in the classrooms of a public center with students who study Spanish as a second language—their learning beliefs, needs, and attitudes, as well as didactic preferences. The information obtained is envisaged to improve the teaching practice of Spanish as a host language in a public educational context

Infinite horizon economies with borrowing constraints

We consider infinite horizon economies with incomplete financial markets. Securities are in positive net supply and may be infinite-lived. We establish existence of equilibria by requiring borrowing constrains instead of portfolio restrictions..Equilibrium, Infinite horizon incomplete markets, Infinite-lived real assets.

Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market

Diseñando el modelo de negocio para una Start Up de prestación de servicios de mantenimiento de maquinaria pesada

Los emprendedores normalmente se ven ante la pregunta de cómo hacer para crear su empresa a partir de una oportunidad de negocio que han detectado en el mercado -- En el caso del autor, la situación de estudio radica en identificar cuál es la configuración empresarial con la que debería diseñar una empresa que preste servicios de mantenimiento para maquinaria pesada en su inicio y puesta en marcha, y que, coherentemente, pueda atender el mercado de empresas de construcción civil y minería que tengan obras y/u operaciones a nivel nacional -- Actualmente se desconoce la receta que permite poner en marcha de forma eficiente y efectiva una organización; sin embargo al entender elementos necesarios para empezar una empresa exitosa, como lo son identificar el modelo de negocios y la propuesta de valor, se facilitaría este proceso -- En este trabajo se muestra una aplicación de la metodología Lean Start Up, utilizando herramientas gerenciales como el lienzo de modelo de negocios liviano (Lean Canvas), el lienzo de la propuesta de valor y el mapa de empatía, para diseñar una start up que pretende prestar servicios de mantenimiento de maquinaria pesada, teniendo en cuenta las necesidades reales de los clientes del segmento de mercado, para así plantear una propuesta de valor ajustada que tenga altas posibilidades de ser exitos

TOURISM AS A TOOL FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: IDENTIFICATION OF DETERMINING FACTORS

Currently, a significant number of countries are betting on tourism as an economic activity on which to base their economic development, given that most international organizations recognize that tourism can become a tool for economic development, especially in less developed countries. However, on the part of the scientific literature there is no defined current on the capacity of tourism to become an instrument with which to improve the living conditions of the population residing in receiving countries. In this sense, in the scientific literature there are numerous investigations that have dealt with analysing the relationship between tourism and economic growth, a large part of these works coinciding that there is a causal relationship between both variables, but the same does not happen when the relationship between tourism and economic development. Among works that have analysed this relationship, there is no uniform current on the relationships that exist between tourism and economic development, being different the variables that have been used in these works to measure tourism and economic development, and being applied in different areas of analysis. Indeed, since the appearance of the first works that have analysed the relationship between tourism and economic development, approximately ten years ago, a large number of investigations have emerged on this relationship, for which it is interesting to carry out an evaluation of the main models econometrics that have been used, as well as the main empirical findings that have been reached in this work. In this context, this work highlights a comprehensive review of a large number of peer-reviewed articles that analyse the relationship between tourism and economic development, providing a general description of the theoretical framework that supports the relationship between these two variables, as well as the main results that have been obtained in these works, which will allow establishing the position of the scientific literature regarding the capacity of tourism as an instrument of economic development. This work, therefore, contributes to the scientific literature by answering the question: what is the relationship between tourism and economic development