Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection

CXCL17 Is a Major Chemotactic Factor for Lung Macrophages

Chemokines are a superfamily of chemotactic cytokines that direct the movement of cells throughout the body under homeostatic and inflammatory conditions. The mucosal chemokine CXCL17 was the last ligand of this superfamily to be characterized. Several recent studies have provided greater insight into the basic biology of this chemokine and have implicated CXCL17 in several human diseases. We sought to better characterize CXCL17's activity in vivo. To this end, we analyzed its chemoattractant properties in vivo and characterized a Cxcl17 (-/-) mouse. This mouse has a significantly reduced number of macrophages in its lungs compared with wild-type mice. In addition, we observed a concurrent increase in a new population of macrophage-like cells that are F4/80(+)CDllc(mid). These results indicate that CXCL17 is a novel macrophage chemoattractant that operates in mucosal tissues. Given the importance of macrophages in inflammation, these observations strongly suggest that CXCL17 is a major regulator of mucosal inflammatory responses

Genetic and morphometric characterization of clones of Prosopis alba, Algarobia, selected for salt tolerance

Prosopis alba is an important Argentinean species with a great potential for the production of timber and nontimber products. Many studies showed high salt tolerance of this species, which allows it to be used in afforestation and reforestation of saline soils. In this study, we applied the morphometric technique to characterize 21 salt-tolerant clones (ST). Twenty of these clones were studied by inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) and simple sequence repeat (SSR), and their molecular patterns were compared with those of 22 individuals selected for salt sensitivity (SS). Most morphological traits revealed highly significant differences among ST clones, and four out of 11 characters showed high heritability. ISSR analysis allowed detecting 89 loci, 91 % of them variable. ST versus SS groups differ significantly from each other by the frequencies of 22 of these loci, from which 12 were significant at the matrix level. Analysis of six SSR loci for the same groups indicated that all of them were polymorphic at the 1 % criterion. Allelic frequencies of SSR also showed highly significant differences between SS and ST groups. Analysis of coancestry between individuals within SS and ST groups and between groups indicated that the molecular differentiation between them cannot be explained solely on relationship grounds. Molecular groupings based on ISSR and SSR showed consistency to each other, as supported by the highly significant coinertia in the distribution of individuals in principal component analysis scatterplots. This work is the first contribution which tends to associate molecular patterns with life history traits and morphological differences in Prosopis clones.Fil: Roser, Leandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Ferreyra, Laura Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Ewens, Mauricio. Universidad Catolica de Santiago del Estero; ArgentinaFil: Vilardi, Juan Cesar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Saidman, Beatriz Ofelia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Classical membrane progesterone receptors in murine mammary carcinomas: agonistic effects of progestins and RU-486 mediating rapid non-genomic effects.

In this article, we demonstrate the expression of functional progesterone binding sites at the cell membrane in murine mammary carcinomas that are stimulated by progestins and inhibited by antiprogestins. Using confocal immunofluorescence, ligand binding and cell compartment-specific western blots, we were able to identify the presence of the classical progesterone receptors. Medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) and RU-486 (1 × 10(-11) and 1 × 10(-8) M) behaved as agonists activating extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and progestin-regulated proteins, except for Cyclin D1 and Tissue factor which failed to increase with 1 × 10(-8) M RU-486, an experimental condition that allows PR to bind DNA. These results predicted a full agonist effect at low concentrations of RU-486. Accordingly, at concentrations lower than 1 × 10(-11) M, RU-486 increased cell proliferation in vitro. This effect was abolished by incubation with the ERK kinase inhibitor PD 98059 or by OH-tamoxifen. In vivo, at a daily dose of 1.2 μg/kg body weight RU-486 increased tumor growth, whereas at 12 mg/kg induces tumor regression. Our results indicate that low concentrations of MPA and RU-486 induce similar agonistic non-genomic effects, whereas RU-486 at higher concentrations may inhibit cell proliferation by genomic-induced effects. This suggests that RU-486 should be therapeutically administered at doses high enough to guarantee its genomic inhibitory effect.Fil: Bottino, Maria Cecilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Cerliani, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Rojas, Paola Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Giulianelli, Sebastian Jesus. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Soldati, Rocío. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Mondillo, Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Gorostiaga, Maria Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Pignataro, Omar Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Química Biológica; ArgentinaFil: Calvo, Juan Carlos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Química Biológica; ArgentinaFil: Gutkind, Silvio J.. National Institutes of Health. National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Reasearch; Estados UnidosFil: Amornphimoltham, Panomwat. National Institutes of Health. National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Reasearch; Estados UnidosFil: Molinolo, Alfredo A.. National Institutes of Health. National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Reasearch; Estados UnidosFil: Luthy, Isabel Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Lanari, Claudia Lee Malvina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; Argentin