Media mix modeling: a case study on optimizing television and digital media spend for a retailer

Project Work presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Marketing IntelligenceRetailers invest most of their advertising budget in traditional channels, namely Television, even though the percentage of budget allocated towards digital media has been increasing. Since the largest part of sales still happen in physical stores, marketers face the challenge of optimizing their media mix to maximize revenue. To address this challenge, media mix models were developed using the traditional modeling approach, based on linear regressions, with data from a retailer’s advertising campaign, specifically the online and offline investments per channel and online conversion metrics. The models were influenced by the selection bias regarding funnel effects, which was exacerbated by the use of the last-touch attribution model that tends to disproportionately skew marketer investment away from higher funnel channels to lower-funnel. Nonetheless, results from the models suggest that online channels were more effective in explaining the variance of the number of participations, which were a proxy to sales. To managers, this thesis highlights that there are factors specific to their own campaigns that influence the media mix models, which they must consider and, if possible, control for. One factor is the selection biases, such as ad targeting that may arise from using the paid search channel or remarketing tactics, seasonality or the purchase funnel effects bias that undermines the contribution of higher-funnel channels like TV, which generates awareness in the target audience. Therefore, companies should assess which of these biases might have a bigger influence on their results and design their models accordingly. Data limitations are the most common constraint for marketing mix modeling. In this case, we did not have access to sales and media spend historical data. Therefore, it was not possible to understand what the uplift in sales caused by the promotion was, as well as to verify the impact of the promotion on items that were eligible to participate in the promotion, versus the items that were not. Also, we were not able to reduce the bias from the paid search channel because we lacked the search query data necessary to control for it and improve the accuracy of the models. Moreover, this project is not the ultimate solution for the “company’s” marketing measurement challenges but rather informs its next initiatives. It describes the state of the art in marketing mix modeling, reveals the limitations of the models developed and suggests ways to improve future models. In turn, this is expected to provide more accurate marketing measurement, and as a result, a media budget allocation that improves business performance

Devaluation Beliefs and Debt Crisis: The Argentinian Case

Throughout the year 2001 the Argentine real GDP fell by 20 percent and the Investment Rate decreased by more than 20 percent of the GDP. The government made several announcements on changes in exchange rate policy in order to assist the recovery of the economy. At same time, the Trade Balance produced a huge surplus and the Argentine External Debt over GDP ratio increased so much that it forced the Argentinian government to default and, afterwards, devalue the peso 40 percent. We explore the relationship between default and the expectations on devaluation. We find that depending on the level of debt and given an expectation of devaluation two types of crises can arise: if the level of debt is low the government devalues but does not default; for a higher level of debt, the government devalues and defaults to cancel the future cost of repaying the debt. We have calibrated our model to match the main features of the Argentine crisis and we show that the External Debt over GDP ratio was in a crisis zone where the government found it optimal to default and to devalue.Debt crisis, Devaluation, Argentina

O ensino mediado por tecnologias digitais no trabalho das escolas municipais de educação básica de Palmas

In the “Distance Education (EaD)” modality, the offer of activities organized in part in person and another mediated by digital technologies has been considered as “combined education”, the so-called “Blended Learning”, since 2001, Brazilian educational legislation has ensured the hybridization of presence, presence-absence and co-presence (PEREIRA; ROCHA; VICENTE, 2021). From the physical removal and suspension of classes caused by the Pandemic in 2020, "hybrid teaching" became the most usual modality in Brazilian schools and universities. Our objective is to understand the concept of “teaching mediated by digital technologies” in the work of municipal elementary schools in Palmas. Our research problem: What are the difficulties/facilities of teachers in classes mediated by analogical (recorded teleclasses) and digital technologies (virtual environment) in the “Palmas Home School” program of schools in the municipality of Palmas? As a methodology, we used qualitative Documentary Research and the content analysis method. In our results, we put in debate/discussion the “Palmas Home School” Program implemented in the municipal schools of Palmas. As of February 2021, early childhood education and elementary school students in the municipality of Palmas began to have school activities at home with the support of a "virtual learning environment". The virtual environment is called “Palmas Home School”, this tool provides texts, activities, videos, books and website suggestions for student learning. There is content for all grades from 1st to 9th grade, as well as material for special education. In the second half of 2020, the 76 schools started to have “tele classes” of 15 to 20 minutes transmitted by an open 5.2 TV channel. Our Considerations reflect on the foundations of the “Palmas Home School” program presented as “inclusive education”; “teacher training” for “teaching mediated by digital technologies” without initial and continuing training. In conclusion, we would say that the municipal government made a hurried curricular arrangement to respond promptly regarding the suspension of classes, but without offering effective conditions for quality education. In addition, many professors, in order to improve their pedagogical work, resorted to virtual courses and purchases of technological devices to subsidize teaching at the time of suspension of face-to-face classes. Another factor observed based on research information is the limitation of access to digital technological resources by teachers and students linked to basic education. In the analysis obtained through interviews with the surveyed teachers, shows the visibility of the absence of digital technologies linked to an internet network to complement school activities at Palmas Home School.Na modalidade de “Educação a Distância (EaD)” a oferta das atividades organizadas em parte presencial e outra mediada por tecnologias digitais vem sendo considerada como “educação combinada”, o chamado “Blended Learning” e desde 2001 a legislação educacional brasileira assegura a hibridização da presencialidade, presença-ausência e co-presença (PEREIRA; ROCHA; VICENTE, 2021). A partir do afastamento físico e da suspensão das aulas ocasionada pela Pandemia em 2020, o “ensino híbrido” passou a ser a modalidade mais usual nas escolas e nas universidades brasileiras. Nosso objetivo é compreender a concepção de “ensino mediado por tecnologias digitais” no trabalho das escolas municipais de educação básica de Palmas. Nosso problema de pesquisa: Quais as dificuldades/facilidades dos professores nas aulas mediadas por tecnologias analógicas (tele aulas gravadas) e digitais (ambiente virtual) no programa “Palmas Home School” das escolas do município de Palmas? Como metodologia utilizamos a Pesquisa Documental qualitativa e o método Análise de Conteúdo. Nos nossos resultados colocamos em debate/discussão o Programa “Palmas Home School”, implementado nas escolas municipais de Palmas. A partir do mês de fevereiro de 2021, os alunos da educação infantil e do ensino fundamental do município de Palmas, passaram a ter atividades escolares em casa com suporte de um “ambiente virtual de aprendizagem”. O ambiente virtual possui denominação de “Palmas Home School”, cuja ferramenta disponibiliza textos, atividades, vídeos, livros e sugestões de sites para o aprendizado dos alunos. Há conteúdo para todas as séries do 1º ao 9º ano, além de material para a educação especial. No segundo semestre de 2020, as 76 escolas passaram a ter “teleaulas” de 15 a 20 minutos transmitidas por um canal aberto 5.2 de TV. Nossas Considerações refletem sobre as bases do programa “Palmas Home School”, apresentado como “educação inclusiva”; a “formação de professores” para o “ensino mediado por tecnologias digitais” sem formação inicial e continuada. Concluindo, diríamos que o governo municipal fez um arranjo curricular apressado para responder prontamente quanto à suspensão das aulas, mas sem oferecer condições efetivas para um ensino de qualidade. Além disso, muitos docentes, para melhorarem seu trabalho pedagógico, recorreram a cursos virtuais e a compras de aparelhos tecnológicos para subsidiar o ensino no momento de suspenção de aulas presenciais. Outro fator observado, com base nas informações pesquisadas, consiste na limitação de acesso aos recursos tecnológicos digitais por docentes e discentes atrelada à educação básica. A análise obtida por meio de entrevistas com os/as professores/as pesquisados, mostra a visibilidade da ausência de tecnologias digitais atreladas a uma rede de internet para complementar as atividades escolares na Palmas Home School

ESPAÇO COMERCIAL NA AVENIDA TOCANTINS EM TAQUARALTO CIDADE DE PALMAS

They study discusses the Tocantins Avenue, one of the main commercial avenues located in the Taquaralto sector in the city of Palmas. The work has a methodological nature of literature review and case study. The objective is to: describe Avenida Tocantins via commercial space. The research emphasizes characteristics such as flow of people, provision of services and commerce. It was observed in the study, little infrastructure for the access of people with reduced physical mobility to the avenue, little traffic signaling, as well as many commercial stores that expand from the inside of the store to the hunts, which makes it difficult in many the flow of people, in addition, it was noted, a great concentration of services and commercial enterprises of various segments. This leads to a reflection and punctual actions by the government in partnerships with traders in order to make the road more comfortable and accessible for all.O estudo discorre acerca da avenida Tocantins, uma das principais vias comerciais localizadas no setor Taquaralto na cidade de Palmas. O trabalho possui natureza metodológica de revisão de literatura e estudo de caso. O objetivo consiste em: descrever a Avenida Tocantins via espaço comercial. A pesquisa enfatiza características como, fluxo de pessoas, prestação de serviços e comércio. Observou-se no estudo, pouca infraestrutura para o acesso de pessoas com mobilidades físicas reduzidas à avenida, pouca sinalização de trânsito, como também, muitas lojas comerciais que se expandem do interior da loja para as caçadas, o que dificulta em muitos locais o fluxo das pessoas, além disso se notou, uma grande concentração de serviços e empreendimentos comerciais de vários seguimentos. Isso remete a reflexão e ações pontuais do poder público em parcerias com os comerciantes com o sentido de tornar a via mais confortável e com acessibilidade para todos

A RENDA DOS BENEFÍCIOS PREVIDENCIÁRIOS E A PROTEÇÃO SOCIAL DO TRABALHADOR

No presente estudo procuramos identificar as funções dos benefícios previdenciários a partir de uma perspectiva histórica, bem como definir os elementos sobre os quais se amparam as prestações devidas pela Previdência Social no Brasil, especialmente a correlação existente entre a renda do benefício, a remuneração do trabalhador e a necessidade social objeto de proteçã

Osteoartrites em equinos

Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina VeterináriaA Osteoartrite (OA) é a principal causa de claudicação no cavalo de desporto e lazer, sendo uma afecção que tem grandes repercussões económicas. Este trabalho descreve algumas das características importantes da estrutura articular, bem como da sua fisiologia. Define a OA e todas as estruturas envolvidas no seu processo. Os mecanismos fisiopatológicos põem em evidência os factores de risco em causa e que determinam todo o processo de degradação articular. São descritos os vários meios de diagnóstico utilizados, quer os convencionais, quer as recentes técnicas imagiológicas (ressonância magnética, tomografia computadorizada e cintigrafia nuclear) quer ainda os biomarcadores do metabolismo da cartilagem articular e osso. A abordagem terapêutica é diversa incluindo os anti-inflamatórios não esteróides, os corticosteróides, os glicosaminoglicanos polisulfatados, o hialuronato de sódio, o pentosan polisulfato e o ácido tiludrónico, com o objectivo de travar a progressão da doença articular. Também são abordadas novas formas alternativas de tratamento da OA, como a terapia por meio de ondas de choque, a utilização de células estaminais mesenquimatosas e a terapia genética. Este trabalho é complementado pela descrição de dois casos clínicos, onde são abordados o diagnóstico e respectivo tratamento.ABSTRACT - The Osteoarthritis (OA) is the main cause of lameness in the sport and leisure horse, being an affection with great economic evolvement. This work describes the main characteristics of the joint structure, as well as its physiology. It defines the OA and all the involved structures in its process. It’s physiopathology puts in evidence all the risk factors and all the process of joint degradation associated. Diagnosis methods are mentioned, not only the conventional ones, but also the recent imaging techniques (magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography and nuclear scintigraphy) and the use of the bone and cartilage biomarkers. Diverse types of treatment are used, as it is the case of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory, corticosteroids, polysulfated glycosaminoglycan, hyaluronan, pentosan polysulfate and acid tiludronic, drugs, achieving to decrease the progression of the joint disease. Also new forms of treatment of the OA are referred as the therapy using shock waves, mesenchymal stem cells and the gene therapy. Two clinical cases are described, where the diagnosis and treatment are boarded

Relative asymptotics and Fourier series of orthogonal polynomials with a discrete Sobolev inner product

21 pages, no figures.-- MSC2000 codes: 42C05, 33C47.MR#: MR1971776 (2004a:42035)Zbl#: Zbl 1014.42019^aLet μ be a finite positive Borel measure supported in [−1,1] and introduce the discrete Sobolev-type inner product $$\langle f,g\rangle = \int^1_{-1} f(x)g(x)d\mu(x)+\sum^K_{k=1} \sum^{N_k}_{i=0} M_{k,i} f^{(i)}(a_k)g^{(i)}(a_k),$$ where the mass points $a_k$ belong to [−1,1], $M_{k,i}\geq 0$, $i = 0,\dots,N_k-1$, and $M_{k,N_k} >0$. In this paper, we study the asymptotics of the Sobolev orthogonal polynomials by comparison with the orthogonal polynomials with respect to the measure μ and we prove that they have the same asymptotic behaviour. We also study the pointwise convergence of the Fourier series associated to this inner product provided that μ is the Jacobi measure. We generalize the work done by F. Marcellán and W. Van Assche where they studied the asymptotics for only one mass point in [−1,1]. The same problem with a finite number of mass points off [−1,1] was solved by G. López, F. Marcellán and W. Van Assche in a more general setting: they consider the constants Mk,i to be complex numbers. As regards the Fourier series, we continue the results achieved by F. Marcellán, B. Osilenker and I.A. Rocha for the Jacobi measure and mass points in R\[-1,1].The work of F. Marcellán was supported by a grant of Dirección General de Investigación (Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología) of Spain BFM-2000-0206-C04-01 and INTAS Project, INTAS 00-272.Publicad

On Fourier series of a discrete Jacobi-Sobolev inner product

22 pages, no figures.-- MSC2000 code: 42C05.MR#: MR1920116 (2003e:42007)Zbl#: Zbl 1019.42014Let $\mu$ be the Jacobi measure supported on the interval $[-1,1]$ and introduce the discrete Sobolev-type inner product \langle f,g\rangle= \int _{-1} f(x) g(x) d\mu(x)+ \sum _{k=1} \sum N_k}_{i=0} M_{k,i} f (i)}(a_k) g (i)}(a_k), where $a_k$, $1\le k\le K$, are real numbers such that $_k 1$ and $M_{k,i}> 0$ for all $k$, $i$. This paper is a continuation of [{\it F. Marcellán}, {\it B. P. Osilenker} and {\it I. A. Rocha}, "On Fourier series of Jacobi-Sobolev orthogonal polynomials", J. Inequal. Appl. 7, 673-699 (2002; Zbl 1016.42014)] and our main purpose is to study the behaviour of the Fourier series associated with such a Sobolev inner product. For an appropriate function $f$, we prove here that the Fourier-Sobolev series converges to $f$ on $(-1,1)\bigcup _{k=1}\{a_k\}$, and the derivatives of the series converge to f (i)}(a_k) for all $i$ and $k$. Roughly speaking, the term appropriate means here the same as we need for a function $f$ in order to have convergence for its Fourier series associated with the standard inner product given by the measure $\mu$. No additional conditions are needed.The work of F. Marcellán was supported by a grant of Dirección General de Investigación (Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología) of Spain BFM 2000 0206 C04 01 and by an INTAS Grant 2000/272.Publicad