Precise calculation of the threshold of various directed percolation models on a square lattice

Using Monte Carlo simulations on different system sizes we determine with high precision the critical thresholds of two families of directed percolation models on a square lattice. The thresholds decrease exponentially with the degree of connectivity. We conjecture that $p_{c}$ decays exactly as the inverse of the coodination number.Comment: 2 pages, 2 figures and 1 tabl

Effects of flat tax reforms on economic growth in the OECD countries

This paper explores how a transition from a progressive to a flat tax scheme would affect economic growth in the OECD countries on the period from 1997 to 2007. A meta-regression analysis on eighteen calibration studies on flat tax reforms provides robust results of the mean tax elasticity as well as estimates for long run growth. Based on the 2006/2007 level of tax progressivity and tax elasticity, the average growth potential is found to be around 6.75 percent, translating into a growth potential of 9.16 percent in real output for the OECD area

Physical Wigner functions

In spite of their potential usefulness, the characterizations of Wigner functions for Bose and Fermi statistics given by O'Connell and Wigner himself almost thirty years ago has drawn little attention. With an eye towards applications in quantum chemistry, we revisit and reformulate them in a more convenient way.Comment: Latex, 10 page

Relaxation kinetics in two-dimensional structures

We have studied the approach to equilibrium of islands and pores in two dimensions. The two-regime scenario observed when islands evolve according to a set of particular rules, namely relaxation by steps at low temperature and smooth at high temperature, is generalized to a wide class of kinetic models and the two kinds of structures. Scaling laws for equilibration times are analytically derived and confirmed by kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour.

BACKGROUND: Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. METHODS: We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. RESULTS: We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in the activity of each group is less important. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed modelling approach introduces a theoretical framework for the study of infectious diseases spread in a population with two layers of heterogeneity relevant for the local transmission and the spatial propagation of the disease. It can be used for pandemic preparedness studies to identify adequate interventions and quantitatively estimate the corresponding required effort, as well as in an emerging epidemic situation to assess the pandemic potential of the pathogen from population and early outbreak data

Biology of Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) B biotype (Hemiptera, Aleyrodidae) on tomato genotypes

O Brasil é um dos maiores produtores mundiais de tomate (Solanum lycopersicum), porém grande parte da produção é perdida devido ao ataque de Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) biótipo B. Entre as táticas de controle dessa praga num manejo integrado de pragas, pode-se relacionar a resistência de plantas. Ensaios para avaliar alguns aspectos biológicos de B. tabaci foram realizados com 18 genótipos de tomateiro, em condições controladas de laboratório (casa de vegetação). Plantas com 30 dias de idade foram colocadas em gaiolas plásticas e infestadas com 20 casais de moscas-brancas cada, durante 24h. Acompanhou-se então o desenvolvimento de pelo menos 30 ovos em três folíolos por planta (repetição) até a emergência dos insetos. Os insetos criados nos genótipos LA1335, PI365928 e LA722 apresentaram prolongamento de três dias no período de desenvolvimento, em relação aos criados em PI134418 (20,3 dias). As maiores taxas de mortalidade das ninfas de mosca-branca ocorreram nos genótipos PI365928, LA1335 e LA722 (63,8, 54,5 e 53,3%, respectivamente) e as menores, nos genótipos IAC294 e IAC68F-22-2 (4,9 e 6,2%, respectivamente). Os genótipos LA1335, PI365928 e LA722 apresentam resistência moderada do tipo não-preferência para alimentação e/ou antibiose a B. tabaci biótipo B.Brazil is one of the main tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) producers worldwide. Nevertheless, considerable part of the production is lost due to Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) B biotype attacks. Resistant plants can be an important method for controlling this pest in an integrated pest management. Tests for evaluating some biological aspects of B. tabaci were carried out on 18 tomato genotypes, in controlled laboratory greenhouse conditions. Thirty-day-old plants placed in plastic cages were infested with 20 whitefly pairs each, for 24 h. The development of at least 30 eggs in three leaflets per plant (repetition) was observed until adult emergence. The development period of insects grown in LA1335, PI365928 and LA722 genotypes took three days longer when compared to the ones grown in PI134418 (20.3 days). The highest mortality rate of whitefly nymphs occurred in PI365928, LA1335 and LA722 genotypes (63.8, 54.5 and 53.3%, respectively), and the smallest ones in IAC294 and IAC68F-22-2 genotypes (4.9 e 6.2%, respectively). LA1335, PI365928 and LA722 genotypes presented moderate feeding nonpreference and/or antibiosis-based resistance to B. tabaci B biotype

No-choice ovipositional nonpreference of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) B biotype on tomato genotypes

O Brasil é um dos maiores produtores mundiais de tomate, porém grande parte da produção é perdida devido ao ataque de Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) biótipo B. Entre as táticas de controle dessa praga num manejo integrado de pragas, pode-se relacionar a resistência de plantas. Avaliou-se a preferência para oviposição de B. tabaci biótipo B por 18 genótipos de tomateiro com diferentes densidades e tipos de tricomas utilizando-se dois métodos e estudou-se a influência dos tricomas nesta preferência, utilizando-se dois métodos para os experimentos de confinamento. Folíolos seccionados do terço superior dos tomateiros (primeiro método) e plantas com 30 dias de idade (segundo método) foram infestados com moscas-brancas durante 24 h. Para o primeiro experimento, foram realizados testes de correlação linear simples entre o número de insetos e de ovos e o número de tricomas nos tomateiros. O primeiro método foi melhor que o segundo, pois foi mais fácil de ser conduzido e demandou menos tempo para as avaliações, além disso, foi efetivo em discriminar o nível de resistência dos genótipos avaliados. Tricomas glandulares correlacionaram-se negativamente com adultos atraídos e com ovos, e positivamente com adultos capturados. Correlações negativas ocorreram entre o número de tricomas não-glandulares e o número de insetos capturados, e entre o número de tricomas totais e o número de insetos atraídos e capturados. Correlações positivas ocorreram entre o número de tricomas totais e o número de ovos cm-2 e de tricomas não-glandulares e o número de ovos. Ambos os métodos foram eficientes para discriminar os genótipos, principalmente os resistentes, com destaque para LA716, PI134417 e PI134418, que apresentaram altíssima antixenose para oviposição relacionada à presença de tricomas glandulares tipo IV. A preferência para oviposição de B. tabaci pelos genótipos LA1963 e NAV1062 está relacionada à alta densidade de tricomas não-glandulares tipo V.Brazil is one of the main tomato producers worldwide. Nevertheless, 40 to 70% of the production is lost due to Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) B biotype attacks. Resistant plant germplasm can be an important method for controlling this pest in an integrated pest management program. This research aimed to evaluate the no-choice ovipositional preference of B. tabaci B biotype on 18 tomato genotypes with different densities and types of trichomes testing two screening techniques and to determine the influence of trichomes on whitefly ovipositional preference. Two methods of confinement experiments were used. Leaflets detached from the upper third part of the tomato plants (first experiment) and 30-day-old plants (second experiment) were infested with whiteflies during 24 h. For the first experiment, simple linear correlation tests between the number of insects and eggs, and number of trichomes in the tomato genotypes were carried out. The first technique was better than the second one, as it was easier to carry out and the evaluation demanded less time and as well as was effective to discriminate the resistance level of the evaluated genotypes. Glandular trichomes had a negative correlation with attracted adults and number of eggs deposited, and a positive correlation with number of trapped insects. Negative correlations were observed between number of nonglandular trichomes and trapped insects, and also between total number of trichomes and attracted and trapped insects. Positive correlations were observed between number of total trichomes and eggs cm-2 and nonglandular trichomes and number of eggs. Both confinement methods efficiently discriminated whitefly oviposition among genotypes, especially the resistant ones. High levels of antixenosis for oviposition related to type IV glandular trichomes were exhibited by genotypes LA716, PI134417 and PI134418. The high level of ovipositional preference by B. tabaci for genotypes LA1963 and NAV1062 was related to a high density of type V nonglandular trichomes

Building more accurate decision trees with the additive tree.

The expansion of machine learning to high-stakes application domains such as medicine, finance, and criminal justice, where making informed decisions requires clear understanding of the model, has increased the interest in interpretable machine learning. The widely used Classification and Regression Trees (CART) have played a major role in health sciences, due to their simple and intuitive explanation of predictions. Ensemble methods like gradient boosting can improve the accuracy of decision trees, but at the expense of the interpretability of the generated model. Additive models, such as those produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as CART, have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing previously unseen connections between these approaches. This paper introduces a rigorous formalization for the additive tree, an empirically validated learning technique for creating a single decision tree, and shows that this method can produce models equivalent to CART or gradient boosted stumps at the extremes by varying a single parameter. Although the additive tree is designed primarily to provide both the model interpretability and predictive performance needed for high-stakes applications like medicine, it also can produce decision trees represented by hybrid models between CART and boosted stumps that can outperform either of these approaches

Proteomic and phosphoproteomic study of the macrophage response to candida albicans using silac and simac

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